"We don't trade gold." "We keep it in the portfolio as a spare tire." When investors started asking Rich Bernstein about silver after years of silence, he saw a warning sign. Rich Bernstein on what investor questions reveal about sentiment, and why he treats gold as insurance.

The biggest danger in sports betting is not be the big loss. "That kind of grinding despair in a financial situation, I think is much harder to recover from than the one big mistake." Dave Nadig on why slowly losing can be harder to learn from than losing it all at once.

The latest rate spike raises a bigger portfolio question: What happens when stocks and bonds stop protecting you from each other? "I think it's less about uncertainty and it's more about instability." Liz Ann Sonders on why what drives interest rates matters for your whole portfolio.

The 10-year Treasury yield just hit a 19-year high. But Jim Grant reminded us that interest-rate cycles can unfold over generations. "Interest rates are unusual, if not unique in their proclivity for trending higher and lower, not in fiscal quarters or years, or even a single decade." "They have exhibited this tendency to rise and fall over the course of generations." Jim Grant on the long cycles behind the daily moves in interest rates.

“If you're buying something at half book, you're literally buying a building that cost a hundred dollars for fifty dollars.” Why does price-to-book work so much better in Japan than in the US? “It turns out that book value is a really good predictor for returns in Japan because it's an entirely tangible economy. And then you go to the US, and it seems to be completely bonkers and doesn't work at all. Is it any surprise, given that the US is the most intangible economy?” Dan Rasmussen on why the same valuation metric can work in one market and fail in another.

"I lost $157,000 in three minutes." Trading SPACs took him from $6,000 to dreams of becoming a millionaire, and then a six-figure loss in minutes. “I felt like I just got slapped in the face by Mike Tyson.” Jack Raines on the big ups and downs of trading SPACs.

"They worked at Lehman, they were paid by Lehman, and they loaded up on Lehman stock." “If you wanted to buy Lehman stock, they would offer you a 10% discount. So a lot of employees were like, ‘Oh my God, free money, 10% discount on the stock.’” What happens when your paycheck and your portfolio depend on the same thing? Jared Dillian on the life hedge.

Can a company have a powerful competitive advantage that investors struggle to see? "Sometimes there are businesses where the moat is not really obvious, but it leaves its fingerprints." "It's a question of what it is and whether you can understand it." Chris Mayer on finding the invisible moat.

Could the US-China AI race come down to who can power it? "They're trying to make the technology free and lean on where they have enormous advantage, which is really in the energy and energy delivery." Jason Hsu on why he sees electricity as China's edge in the AI race.

What's in the Value Investor Seminar Gary Mishuris (@BehavioralValue) teaches? I have an incredible preview up on @excessreturnpod We get into why the classic investment books still matter, and end with a discussion on how he's using AI at his firm. piped.video/kmHUKeQ5x_8?si=9o2U…

A profitable strategy can become a very expensive habit. "It's like an old friend who you grew up with, but who is really actually a bad person, and you just can't get away from being their friend 'cause you've been friends with them for so long.” Brent Donnelly on why traders keep running dead strategies.

The 10-year Treasury yield just hit its highest level since 2007. Could one simple signal tell you when to own bonds, and when to stay out? Aahan Menon on the 2% rule.

Get the full episode here: Spotify: bit.ly/4v5veb9 Apple: bit.ly/4dhsYWJ

“If people tell you you're an idiot, you double it.” Kevin Muir on why applause can be a negative signal for investment ideas.

"I'm still at 90/10. I occasionally wind up floating up to 95%, and I have to bring myself down a little." Retirement usually means cutting your stock exposure. Former Fidelity president Bob Pozen makes a different case for investors who don't need their portfolio to cover living expenses.

The 10-year Treasury yield hit a 19-year high today. Can Scott Bessent’s Treasury buybacks stem the tide? We asked Andy Constan on our latest episode of First Principles.

"It's not really 70 cents, it's 50." Mike Contopoulos asked a bond trader why energy bonds were marked at 70 cents on the dollar. The answer: "If they actually traded, they would be trading at like 50 cents on the dollar, but there hasn't been a run on them in three weeks." When a bond ETF trades below the reported value of its holdings, which price is wrong? Mike Contopoulos on what ETF discounts can reveal during a crisis.

If you've heard @Jack_Raines talk about making and losing a giant amount of money trading SPACs and options but wished he'd go (way) deeper - Me too. Luckily, that's what @excessreturnpod is for. Investing lessons for olds and yutes alike: piped.video/CdHfaaTUVMg?si=dTxR…

"How do those two things coexist in the same world? They're the antithesis of each other, and yet that's where everybody wants to put their money, in one of those two things." In public markets, investors want to pay almost nothing. In private equity, they accept management fees, performance fees and lost liquidity. "It's not the fee that makes that a good investment, it's the gross return. And that may not perpetuate forever." Bob Robotti on the contradiction between how investors choose public and private investments.

"$20,000 turned into $120,000." "The $120,000 turned into $8,000 after the dot-com bubble crashed." Ian Cassel says his first big win had the biggest impact on his investing career. "It gave me that kind of misguided self-confidence, and enough self-confidence that when I did lose 90% of my portfolio, I still had enough self-confidence in the tank that I knew I could come back." Ian Cassel on why an early win can matter long after the money is gone.