Now there is significant developments in Europe. On 21 September, the European Central Bank launched Pontes. The ECB’s new infrastructure for settling tokenised assets in central-bank money is explicitly framed around monetary sovereignty and reducing dependence on dollar stablecoins.
The interesting question was always whether dollar dominance would erode only at the level of reserve assets, or also at the level of the digital infrastructure through which assets, payments and identities are mediated. Increasingly, these two dimensions seem to be moving together.
It hurts when you feel like you are in their heads but struggle explaining what is going on. This may turn out to be "spot on".
Reducing the investibility of the US diminishes financial inflows domestically. Meanwhile, massive debt issuance in the EU—targeted at funding external security, climate action, and infrastructure—is building more liquid debt markets. This creates alternative investible assets amid a global savings glut.
As this new asset class absorbs capital, other nations are effectively “socializing” their currencies and debt. The outcome is a more diversified global currency system with less dominance by the US dollar. Yet, the US is trying to counter this trend by leveraging stablecoins, exerting indirect control over payment systems, and deploying digital ID issuers—essentially attempting to “have its cake and eat it too.”
This strategy raises deep concerns about sovereignty. The reliance on private entities with limited liability in opaque legal jurisdictions challenges traditional notions of state control and has, in practice, been weaponized by adversaries.
If there is any coherent strategy behind what might seem like non-strategy (as suggested by Trump’s policies), it could be aimed at weakening the dollar’s role as a safe asset. Historically, crises tend to drive the dollar’s value up. However, deliberate policy uncertainty might reverse that trend—albeit at a high cost. A drop in the value of US-listed firms could dampen consumer spending through the wealth effect. While such a rebalancing might eventually benefit the economy, it would likely come with significant short-term costs.