Irish Fiscal Advisory Council@fiscalcouncil

Official Twitter account of the Irish Fiscal Advisory Council

 Ireland
FiscalCouncil.ie
Joined January 2014
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The Fiscal Council has just published its Flash Release on Budget 2027. Here are the key takeaways: Budget 2027 puts the public finances on a worse trajectory by repeatedly breaking established spending limits and increasingly relying on high-risk corporation tax.
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Stripping out the excess corporation tax, the parts that look riskiest, the Government plans to run larger deficits, rising from €12 billion in 2026 to €20 billion in 2030.
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The Government should be saving more of these risky receipts. This would make its tax base more secure. It would ensure it covers future ageing pressures and weathers the next recession without the need for painful cutbacks or sharp tax increases.
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1/4 Two releases came out today. The “White Paper” gives an updated glimpse of the fiscal situation before next Tuesday’s Budget package, but is thin on spending detail. We also have updated tax and spending numbers to September.
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3/4 The Department of Health is heading for its second-largest overspend outside of the pandemic. Overruns have risen from €390 million in July to €650 million in August, and €730 million in September.
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4/4 The key takeaway is that overspends continue and strong revenues are offsetting them for now. But the Government is relying heavily on risky corporation tax. The White Paper 2026 surplus is €2.3 billion smaller than forecast in March, and the Budget will reduce it further.
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The Council is delighted to host the annual Irish Society for Women in Economics Post-Budget Analysis Event. Join us on Wednesday, 7 October, at 5:30 p.m. at the @ESRIDublin. Attendance is free, but registration is required, and places are limited: ti.to/irish-fiscal-advisory-…
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1/4 August’s update shows taxes growing strongly. But spending is also rising faster than planned, and Department of Health overruns are mounting.
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3/4 Corporation tax receipts rose further in August — a key month for multinational payments. Revenues look set to exceed forecasts for 2026.
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4/4 Overall, the pattern of overspends continues. And while stronger than expected revenues are offsetting these for now, the Government continues to rely heavily on risky corporation taxes.
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1/11 The Fiscal Council’s latest report warns that Budget 2027 is set to be larger than appropriate for a strong economy. Spending overruns could make the package even bigger than announced on budget day, increasing Ireland’s reliance on risky corporation tax receipts.
Cover image of report.

ALT Cover image of report.

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10/11 Ireland needs its own domestic budgetary rule. This should be carefully designed and set out in legislation. Such a rule could help protect public investment, which was cut sharply after the financial crisis.
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11/11 The Government should continue planned contributions to its savings funds. The Future Ireland Fund can help offset the predictable costs associated with an ageing population. By running larger surpluses, the Government would not need to borrow for these contributions.
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