fleckensteincapital.com my daily column (since 1996) plus Q&A. Author, "Greenspan's Bubbles: The Age of Ignorance at the Federal Reserve ".

Replying to @StuntPope @ttmygh
how this period of govt interference in all aspects of daily life ends is such an important topic, that the blowback is worth it...big principles (like free speech) are in jeopardy these days and are vastly more important than any grief i get or how many followers i may have.
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for those trying to get up to speed, this excellent but short presentation should be helpful.
We're here at the 2026 Precious Metals Summit Beaver Creek! 👋 And, we're excited to be meeting with current and prospective investors, discussing current operations as well as our long-term growth opportunities. 🎙️Tune in today at 3:30 PM MT (5:30 PM ET) as Jono Lawrence, SVP Exploration & Resources, discusses our all-Canadian, multi-asset gold portfolio: 👉 gowebcasting.com/conferences… #PMSBeaverCreek #Wesdome #GoldMining _____________________________________________________ Nous sommes ici au Precious Metals Summit Beaver Creek 2026! 👋 Et nous sommes ravis de rencontrer des investisseurs actuels et potentiels et de discuter de nos opérations actuelles ainsi que de nos opportunités de croissance à long terme. 🎙️Soyez des nôtres aujourd’hui à 15h30 HR (17h30 HE) alors que Jono Lawrence, VPP, exploration et ressources, discutera de notre portefeuille aurifère multiactifs entièrement canadien: 👉 gowebcasting.com/conferences…
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inslee was 100X bigger threat "to democracy" than the donald (as he demonstrated with his never ending excucitve order during the covid fiasco).
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i can tell almost no one has seen this video, it goes with yesterday's press release. for all the wdo holders out there, this looks like a new system,and as such is a big deal,imo. (especially given the stupidly low valuation it currently has.)
📽Hear from Jono Lawrence, SVP Exploration & Resources, on yesterday’s press release outlining Kiena East’s drill results and the emerging exploration potential of this distinct growth opportunity within the Kiena Mine Complex.⛏️ $WDO.TO $WDOFF #Canadianexploration #Wesdome #Gold
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bill fleckenstein retweeted
Surprise, surprise, surprise…
Scoop: Anthropic has chosen to list its IPO on the Nasdaq, following SpaceX. NYSE historically got the biggest IPOs, but Nasdaq has been winning on tech, partly due to Nasdaq 100 index. businessinsider.com/anthropi… $NDAQ
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"fastest Growth" he said, "they are bleeding money,and have no path to profitability" , (especially openai,imo). why are you sure that is such a dumb statement?
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everyone should want to be up to speed on where we are in the ultimate end game for the passive bid.
1/ The latest episode of The End Game featuring Bill Fleckenstein (@fleckcap) and our very special returning guest Mike Green (@profplum99) of Tier 1 Alpha Capital is now available to all subscribers at grant-williams.com
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excellent synopsis by stan, for those who are interested.
PCT Q2 2026 Earnings After some time to sift through, on track. Communication should be better. $PCT earnings led to lots of whiplash for yours truly. First, I will just rip the band aid off. I thought the communication was poor (particularly in the press release and presentation). DO filled in a lot of gaps on the call but with a speculative, young company like $PCT, there can be no ambiguity quarter to quarter. While the company provided a ton of new information, it was unclear how that linked to the last quarter’s ‘guidance’ and thus came off as evasive. I have made my opinion known on this topic (who know if that means anything). Production: Not a ton expected here given the plant was down for 6 weeks. Ran the plant up to 100% of nameplate and I believe a little higher from DO’s comments: “May was, by design, a low volume month. We commissioned the newly installed equipment, and we changed process conditions at Ironton to mimic the designs we intend to build in Antwerp and Thailand. Those tests were successful. Being able to run those conditions on an operating commercial asset before we build is an advantage most companies in our position do not have. In June, we set a new daily throughput record, and we demonstrated production at 12,000 pounds per hour.” Process conditions should be at 130m LB/yr so good to see the company testing the levels at Ironton and getting every piece of data out of the plant for Thailand. Thailand will be twice as good, twice as cheap – engineering all about scaling. Good to see compounding asset up and running. It must be incredibly frustrating building relationships with converters/brands and having to outsource the very last step before the product is shipped off (QC nightmare). All in all on production, not expecting much. They have stated they have control of the plant and are going to run the plant to meet orders, not to prove run rates to the market. Either you believe them or you don’t. Commercial: Lots of good info in the presentation. Product types, blend %, SKU breadth, trials behind applications etc. My main frustration on comms comes here, please restate the 40-50, 20 – 25 and 25-50 numbers from the prior Q – all the detail is great but that is the main thing ppl are focused on commercially, that holding. DO would go on to re affirm on the call: “On top of the $40 million-$50 million of non-New Jersey and $25 million-$50 million of New Jersey ramp, the most significant new commercial development is in quick serve restaurants, and it happened after quarter close. In the Q3 to date, we've shipped to all three major converters that serve the QSR cold cup market for clear cups. That is the channel, not the single customer. Cold cup programs are underway at two major QSRs through those converters. New Jersey is what accelerated this. Following the approval, we were fast-tracked into two very large qualification programs for cold cup lids. For QSR applications in New Jersey alone, we estimate the annual demand to meet the recycled content requirement to be roughly 20 million pounds. “ Now the question I had, and received the most. “Why are we now working on the cold cups for QSR? What happened to the coffee lids?”. Well, post our NJ DEP success it seems we had a change Lee Corso style “no no no, not so fast my friend” on the definition of a container. From recent DEP FAQ: “A rigid plastic container must be made of plastic except for minor incidentals including, but not limited to, caps, labels, or lids. However, a product does not need to include a lid, cap, or closure to be considered a rigid plastic container. Packaging that contains two or more material types (e.g., plastic and paper) is not considered a rigid plastic container when the plastic component is unable to hold or contain a product on its own. However, if the plastic component will be able to contain, hold, or surround a product at some point in the package’s lifecycle, the package is considered a rigid plastic container.” dep.nj.gov/wp-content/upload… WONDERFUL. So Ronald and his gang of merry QSR pals say to $PCT in May (when FAQ was released), “stop with the coffee lids we are good there now, we need the cold cups stat”. Now, this is very annoying and causes a bit of a delay but what are you gonna do? The good news is overall rPP usage in cold cups much greater than just coffee lids for that mandate. 20m LBs just for NJ, nationwide if you scale up by population that is 600m LBs (using NJ as 3% of US pop). Rest of pipeline looks good. The most under appreciated thing here imo is that the PP market is not like the PE market, its not 70% water bottles. It is hundreds of thousands of individual SKUs that all need to be trialed, qualified and papered. It is extremely painstaking but once it is up and running, $PCT will have a $TDG like customer/product base, incredibly broad and incredibly difficult to displace. They are making progress. (Some evidence of the strategy here is P&G, they qual’d two products last Q, it took a loooong time to get there, and now in just one Q they have a third. Once you are in with a customer you will sell into other products in the org, creating a layer cake of sales: Organic sales growth Cross sales into new applications of existing customers New applications of new customers As these three start to grow in parallel the speed of the ramp will become clear) This brings us to pricing, some very interesting napkin math to be done here. Dustin continued to reiterate Ironton breakeven at 40%-50% as well as branded pricing coming in stronger than anticipated. “We have referred to breakeven as roughly 40%-50% utilization, and that number has not changed. It is built on branded sales at those utilization rates, and branded sales are ramping. Branded pricing remains robust, and applications carrying the highest confidence for the second half maintain strong pricing.” Ironton ops spend is roughly 8.5m per month. Multiple that by 12 we get that’s basically 100m bucks. Ignore compounding for the moment (where PnL will actually be better), and you are looking at 50% of nameplate (50m LBs) breaking Ironton even. Solve for 50(x) = 100, x = 2. He’s basically guiding Pure5 is going for 2$/LB. *Mind Blowing* Inventories As ramp planned for 2H, inventories are moving in right direction. Finished goods sent out to customers while larger levels of finished goods purchased to fulfill increased demand in 2H. I imagine once railcars start moving out of Ironton the fast money will start to react. They do seem to have eyes everywhere. Thailand Good ole Thailand. Another confusing one at first. Changed key term from mechanically complete to operational, which then changed the date from 2H27 to 2028. There is NO change to the schedule but that is confusing. I understand operational is a much more concrete milestone than ‘mechanically complete’ but please spoon feed me the words “we have updated the milestone to something more concrete and thus the date changed, there is no change from our prior work plan”. Overall Generally supposed to be a no nothing quarter. With the weakness in speculative stocks and post convert the stock was trading fairly depressed. I think the content of progress was enough to have the stock trading high single digits but the communication convoluted the story so lots of confusion.
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jason,that an interesting point. do you have a theory about whats changed to cause this?
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simon,otoh, CNN "sources" might have made it up.
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this is priceless.
And you wonder why businesses (but apparently not the U.S. government, which made the mistake of relying on OpenAI with this slide) are so reticent to wholly embrace GenAI models . "A U.S. government map of Africa mislabeled every country during a State Department presentation at a global conference taking place in Brazil this week" "The map showed Nigeria, where the U.S. has several hundred troops deployed, as landlocked in the Sahara. Mozambique, which is in southeastern Africa, was relocated to the Horn of Africa, while Ivory Coast in West Africa was placed on the other side of the continent." Hallucinations and wrong answers are features of LLMs, not bugs. Good at coding and math, but otherwise unreliable. nbcnews.com/politics/trump-a…
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This is something we ought to pay attention to.
Announced after hours on a late-July Friday: the Co-CEO of a $78 billion private credit fund resigned…four days before the announcement. 🤔
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Update: i asked my best credit source what he thought of this. He said, "The only thing that's happening in credit is hyperscaler bonds are absolutely getting murdered. The bond market has put an end to funding hyperscaler capex. They will have to either issue equity or fund capex out of cash flow because there is zero bid for more AI debt issuance. The SPCX bonds are down 10-15% in a straight line like the company is headed for bankruptcy  and are being heavily shorted. In a comatose bull market I've never seen an inaugural high-BBB rated debt issuance like SPCX bring a multi-tranche deal at a yield far above market at 6%+ and then immediately widen 100 basis points in a straight line. Never seen it in 21 years working in credit markets. If they want to keep borrowing they will have to be OK with issuing debt at 8-10% yields." So trouble is brewing but perhaps not exactly in the places (i.e. "ai" vs plain vanilla junk) most people think. Also, the late Friday annoucement, still seems suspicious?
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the totalitarians running washington state do not care about business one bit.
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im obviously biased but this is a impressive list of industries and potential uses thus far (even if it took longer than i expected). meanwhile the company is just getting started.
$PCT: TOP US Food packager. Coffee lids (all the top QSRs) Film, injection and so much more. Now mega auto supplier (below) EU mandates - check US mandates - NJ CA (and 8+++ more ) ONE SOLUTION: $PCT - there can be only one-
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one of my favorite posts of all time from the covid totalitarian era (which somehow just popped into my timeline) with one of bubblevisions biggest clowns!
Replying to @rinsana
thats pretty ironic, given how much of it you and bubblevision have spewed over time...
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Well stated mate.
#fed Breaking: Man says will do job. Nominal GDP tracking 8.5% Inflation above target for > 5years. And apparently to a market spoon fed (Fed) for 20+ years, it’s all a hawkish surprise? Wake up.
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well stated stan, as usual. the butchered financing is what it is, but it wont mean much down the road. pct is the only game intown for all the companies using PPT, that have to comply with these regs.
People asking what kinds of deals NJ was holding up? How about a partnership with $AMCR (largest packager in North America) selling $PCT product across its product lines. $PCT product will flow to $AMCR customers $KO, $CL, $DEO, $JNJ, $LOR.NE , MARS, $NSTL.NE , $PEP and more. NJ is just the start btw (and highlighted because of recent news), but these regulations apply to 20% of the US population and growing. I understand the emotions of a stock down 40% on a poorly timed financing but at the end of the day we sit at 8 bucks post NJ approval, with deliveries starting, balance sheet fixed and an ever growing customer list. Will be interesting to see how the ramp catches people by surprise - I was a buyer this week.
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this👇
Replying to @DavidBCollum
GDP -- the Great Distortion of Passive
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bill fleckenstein retweeted
I clearer image, liiiiive from the National Restaurant Association show this week $PCT 🤝 $KO
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Another great post by stan the man.
In a few months, when folks look back at $PCT and say "well where the signs they would have all these massive customers", the signs were here: $MCD plasticsnews.com/processors/… Focused on plastic to plastic solutions for a circular solution and examining how to address EPR laws covering packaging. I wonder who they could possibly get their CLEAR, FDA Approved rPP from for their coffee lids and cold beverage containers? Hint: There is literally only one provider, mechanical ain't clear and chemical is literally banned in New Jersey.
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