Not a thought leader, but I get lucky sometimes. Plumber, 2013 / Farmer, 2020 / Washed, 2026.
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The best buys never feel good.
The best sells always give you pause.
Your counterparty isn’t just the person on the other side of the trade.
It’s also yourself.
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I dunno if I've ever seen a coin on so many perp dexes that's had its OI capped as often as $CASHCAT.
During the earlier Hyperliquid listing days, apes would slam into this so hard on thin books that there was almost always a constant ~3% premium, never mind the crazy TWAPs that gave us the 50% candles..
Anyway, the chart looks pretty good, seems like it's back to dips are buying mode.
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You wouldn't believe it, but that asset in green will outperform more than half of this list in the short term.
I delete this post if wrong.
Plumber looking for work.
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I think $CHIP have one of the more overlooked business models in AI x crypto.
Much like $GRASS, the actual business goes beyond crypto and, IMO, sits in a pretty durable spot if hyperscaler capex, hardware churn and demand for compute continue anywhere near this pace.
Since their first ~$620K GPU-backed financing roughly a year ago, they've scaled remarkably fast to ~$611M deposited while reporting $14.3M in YTD revenue and a ~$30M annualized Q2 run-rate. Their June recap also cited $44.6M in protocol ARR (a bit confused by this part, but impressive).
They also just announced their largest financing in a $128.9M facility for 32 NVIDIA GB200 NVL72 systems backed by a multi-year contract with an investment-grade counterparty.
Why is this needed? Well, GPUs have traditionally been awkward assets for lenders because they depreciate quickly, hardware cycles move fast and underwriting them requires understanding the underlying compute economics.
ATM, only ~20% of $CHIP is circulating today, so the ~$480M FDV and eventual supply overhang are definitely major talking points, but the first major cliff isn't until April 2027, leaving a decent window to grow into the val before dilution matters.
I think this has a strong case for finding its way into everyone's rotation pretty soon. It sits at the intersection of AI capex, compute demand and has real revenue while the underlying business seems to be scaling fast.
Low float, real revs, narratively fitting, strong moat.
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Added more around $70.
litecoin:native ramping up can sometimes be a bad omen, but objectively, this chart looks pretty good after reclaiming the mid-$60s, an area that has been a major inflection point for years. Holding above it would be one of the cleaner signs of the long-term structure changing.
I don't know how relevant these four-year halving cycles still are, but historically, early positioning has tended to happen around 8–10 months out, which is roughly where we are now heading into the expected July 2027 halving.
There are some obvious pros and cons here...
LTC/BTC has been in a pretty relentless downtrend since the 2017 cycle, but it's finally starting to poke its head above a long-running diagonal. Previous attempts have failed to hold, so I see this as a useful pair to keep an eye on. You'd want to see some sustained relative outperformance as part of the R/R here, especially when BTC is roughly 300x Litecoin's market cap. At LTC/BTC's historical peak near 0.05, that valuation gap was closer to 12x.
Beyond the technicals, actual network usage has surprisingly spiked, and quite significantly too, though it's not entirely clear why. Canary already has its Litecoin ETF product + Grayscale recently amended its filing to convert its Litecoin Trust into one as well.
There's also LitVM, which seems to have renewed some outside interest in the chain, but still nascent.
I'll be honest, not sure how much economic gravity Litecoin can really regain from here, but network hashrate spiked earlier this year and there are clearly parties that see economic value in the network in 2026 (!).
Fossil coin exposure. Sized appropriately and somewhat boring, but I think it can keep chipping away at the $80s and eventually tag the range highs around $100+.
Not expecting immediate fireworks as it works through the first trouble area just above here, but a ~45% weekly move and ~20% daily move just this week are noteworthy, so hoping we're on the cusp of resuscitating this boomer coin.
I tried this trade in early 2025 near the start of the bear and it didn't work, but conditions feel more aligned now.
Something boring and extremely liquid that can help unlock more downstream risk.
Easy invalidation for me below mid-$60s, but we ride it for now.
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There's some rotation going on right now and a few things are finally taking a breather, but the vertical accumulation on a lot of these alts is still pretty crushing.
Sideliners are having a hard time finding clean entries.
Consolidate. Chop around. Sweep lows. Deviate. Squeeze.
Rinse, repeat.
Some of these alts have already done multiples, so I'd expect the rotations to come a bit faster from here.
It's time to update the watchlists.
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Our cute axolotls edging closer to price discovery on some positive news:
- The PXE Bridge finished its Nethermind audit, which is a meaningful checkpoint for the Aztec side of the stack. The bridge is what lets an EVM-side solver talk to Aztec's PXE and eventually settle into shielded notes without the solver itself needing to understand all of Aztec's private execution internals. The work isn't fully complete though, but bridge is already deployed against Aztec Alpha with post-audit E2E testing and work toward making shielded settlement live.
- ERC-8262 moved into Draft Standards Track. Worth noting the Axol/Xochi team weren't just minor contributors here, 3 of the 4 listed authors are core team members, and they also built the reference implementation around the standard, including the Noir proof system, provider-signed attestations and multi-provider compliance flows.
- Hester Peirce also recently spoke about using ZK proofs and attribute-based credentials for financial compliance, which makes the work with ERC-8262 quite notable IMO, essentially proving things like sanctions status, citizenship or accredited-investor eligibility without handing over all of the underlying personal data. That's very close to what it's trying to standardize.. let a protocol verify that a user satisfies compliance without needing to see raw identity and KYC/AML which adds risks.
I think people are starting to notice there's a real AI x privacy project being built by cute axolotls that's severely mispriced at the moment.
Thread next week.
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Plasma can do the funniest thing.
OI slowly climbing shows some clear early positioning, and the chart has been teasing these false breakouts all week.
Their WoW and MoM stats are actually accelerating pretty fast yet most of the narrative keeps circling back to the massive unlock and the growth is getting lost in all of it. It’s admittedly hard to evaluate when growth and supply are moving at opposite ends of the spectrum, but there’s a case for betting on the earnings and growth trajectory.
$ETHFI is around a $650M FDV doing ~$46M in annualized protocol revenue, while $ENA sits around $2B MC.
$XPL is ~$270M MC today, with ~1.76B tokens unlocking and expanding the float by 63%. At the same price, you’re looking at something closer to a ~$440M circ val post-cliff.
I bet they end up figuring out monetization + value capture (they kind of already are). They’ve been doing interesting things around Aurora, concierge services, and Platinum promo perks catering to high NW, arguably the most important in this sector.
Obviously the deadly part is the supply overhang, but there’s a catch-up trade here and potentially a pretty hated rally in a market where PA can outpace the unlocks. Just monitoring on the sidelines for now.
If you believe crypto goes higher, neobanks feel like one of the more obvious sectors to benefit. The use case is immediate where users have a direct benefit in using it daily, so it feels much more material than everything else.
If the entire sector gets re-rated, it’s hard to look at any of the names on static valuations without thinking about where earnings will look a few quarters from now.
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I know Arthur local topped it, but $ENA looks quite decent here after the small throwback.
One of the most stacked roadmaps among the majors.
Next leg is coming soon, I think.
Sticking by my thesis that mids and majors are where you want to have most of your capital allocated.
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Not to hijack this, but $NEAR finding PMF around Intents makes the base case for ethereum:0x7cf9a80db3b29ee8efe3710aadb7b95270572d47 feel like a pretty natural pairing.
There’s going to be some insanely powerful tooling and protocols built around private execution and encrypted instructions.
Nillion also has an avalanche of catalysts coming over the next few months that I think sets it up pretty well for outperformance.
Dusk goes live on Ethereum mainnet in October, bringing Covenants to mainnet for the first time.
The TAM here feels increasingly obvious as more activity moves on-chain and the need for private execution, encrypted instructions, autonomous agents, and conditional markets grows.
I like this setup a lot because the val feels absurdly reasonable relative to what’s built and what’s coming. If execution continues in line with the roadmap, it feels like one of the cleaner, still relatively uncrowded potential lay-ups mid term.
Hilarity happening on Ethereum where everyone front running your trades and they negotiating to cartel split the fees.
Or you can just use near(.)com and don’t worry about MEV and keep your trades private
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Taiki with a masterclass performance with those ETH shorts and ZEC longs, but the generational play is indirectly farming the biggest airdrop of the year.
$VAR with 32% at TGE, 100% unlocked and all future revenues directed towards buyback and burns + API and more swap markets to come.. OTC bids as high as $30 pre-VAR tokenomics ANN..
Definitely the most exciting launch since $HYPE and $LIT.
Many on CT are going to receive substantial airdrops, and I hope to many, lifechanging.
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Here’s another great post by @thatmarkmac with some crazy use cases that ethereum:0x7cf9a80db3b29ee8efe3710aadb7b95270572d47's Nightside can unlock and where Covenants really start to go into hyperdrive.
Right now you can trigger on things like price or time. With Nightside, an encrypted instruction can fire on basically any fact the network can verify, while staying sealed until that event actually happens.
A few examples:
- Whale/dev starts dumping and your exit fires
- Exploit gets confirmed and your funds pull out
- ETF approval or CPI print lands and your trade fires
- Hurricane crosses a threshold and insurance pays
AI agent finishes a job and payment unlocks (ERC-8004)
You don’t need a bot or agent sitting online 24/7 watching everything and reacting for you. You commit/seal the action beforehand, keep it encrypted, and it only fires once the condition is proven.
And this gets way more interesting when you think about this on the protocol side... Vaults can hide their rebalance logic. Lending protocols can automate risk management. Perp DEXes can offer hidden stops and conditionals. DAOs and treasuries can pre-commit emergency responses nobody knows or sees ahead of time.
That’s the big distinction from something like NEAR Intents today. Intents are good at privately executing something you ask for, but Covenants lets you privately decide ahead of time what should happen later, basically attaching a private response to some future fact.
Watching intently, but we're positioned.
Nightside is the roadmap era I'm most bullish on. Can't stop thinking about it ngl
Right now a covenant fires on price or time. At Nightside it fires on any fact the nodes can verify. You write the trade, seal it, and it fires the moment the thing happens
Things you'll be able to do:
A whale wallet that's been dormant since 2017 moves, your sell fires
The dev wallet or the launch bundle starts dumping, your exit fires. The dev can't see where your line is, so he can't sell just under it
An exploit hits a protocol you're in, your bags are already out
A lending market's health factor crosses a threshold, your bid fires into the liq cascade at a level you set weeks ago
Funding flips on you, your position closes itself
An ETF approval gets attested, your buy fires that second. You didn't sit in a perp for months paying funding to wait for it
CPI prints hot, your order fires on the print. Everyone gets the number at the same time, only you already had your reaction attached to it
A whale sends 10k ETH to Binance, your sell fires before the coins hit the book
A token listing gets confirmed, your buy fires instantly. There was no position for anyone to spot until then
A protocol you're LPing in gets sanctioned, you're out before the pool drains
Then it goes way past trading...
A hurricane crosses a windspeed over your county, your insurance pays out. No claim, no adjuster, and nobody knew you were covered
A shipment gets scanned in, the payment goes out. No bank in the middle
A regulator signs off on an acquisition, the deal closes itself. The terms stayed hidden until the money moved
A DAO seals its emergency response ahead of time. An exploit hits, it triggers. The attacker couldn't read the defence first
Your agent finishes a job, the proof lands, it gets paid. No invoice, no escrow, no chasing
Your agent gets a kill switch it can't read. It misbehaves, it gets flagged, its keys are gone
An agent pays another agent for its data. The money lands, the data unlocks. No deal, no handshake
A swarm of agents each seal their move against the same event. It lands and all of them fire at once, no orchestrator in the middle reading everything
None of it needs a bot or you being online. The order is sealed until the event happens, so nobody sees it coming
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Beyond the handful of assets already in everyone's port, I like midcap positioning the most right now.
A lot of these teams raised years ago and have been building ever since. Some failed, some pivoted, and some are only now starting to find real product-market fit.
You're not just betting on the valuation, you're also betting on the team and the accumulated knowledge behind it.
$DRV is a great example. Lyra wasn't a failure, but the team realized the original options AMM wasn't the end state. They spent years learning, then rebuilt around a much broader derivatives stack with options + perps, professional order matching, better capital efficiency, and are now close to launching V3.
$NEAR isn't a midcap, but it's another good example. Years building an L1, then evolved toward chain abstraction, Intents, and now confidential cross-chain execution. Confidential Intents TVL is now around $110M+ and has grown more than 3x over the past month and just today for the first time ever, surpassed Public TVL.
These teams have accumulated capital, infrastructure, relationships, BD, strategic backing, and years of domain knowledge. When something hits, things tend to accelerate.
That’s when there's some asymmetry.
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One of the more interesting midcaps with a full slate of catalysts heading into October.
ethereum:0x7cf9a80db3b29ee8efe3710aadb7b95270572d47 feels well positioned at the intersection of privacy, on-chain market infrastructure, and AI, with private compute and encrypted markets tying all three together.
They re-evaluated the token model with Nillion 2.0, pushing it toward the economic center of the network where it's burned for private compute and storage, staked to perform verification work, with upcoming Covenants architecture extending that into stake-weighted nodes servicing encrypted markets and eventually, earning fees across chains.
After roughly five years of building, they're heading into arguably their biggest rollout since inception.
Market is a bit shakey today, but Nillion has been remarkably durable through the volatility so far. I've taken a position and will continue to add strategically.
7 roadmap eras. Here's the rest of the iceberg:
Nillion Dusk, now. Sealed orders on Ethereum that fire on price or time. No bots to run, no one to trust. An SDK built for agents, apps in a few lines of TypeScript, and anyone can run a node by staking NIL. Mainnet early Oct
Darkfall, Nov to Feb. One network across Hyperliquid, Base, Robinhood and the rest of EVM, native on each. Stake NIL once on Ethereum, earn fees from every chain you serve. Misbehaving nodes get jailed and slashed
Skyglow, Feb to May. Watch a condition on one chain, settle on another. Nothing bridged, nothing wrapped, no value locked. Goes past EVM too, Solana and Move chains
Nightside (my fav), May to Aug. Custom conditions of any complexity, resolved by any feed the nodes can verify, checked at high frequency. A wallet moving, a court ruling, a CPI print, a shipment. Nodes specialise in feeds and get paid for the facts they confirm
Neon, Aug to Oct. Covenants get their own language and VM, so conditions become programmable. Nest them, do maths on them, loop them. The design space blows wide open
Aurora, Oct to Jan. Long-dated covenants get a second, quantum resistant seal on top of the first. FHE coprocessors compute on conditions without ever decrypting them
Moonshine, Dec to Feb. Ciphertext moves to blobs at about a tenth of the cost, reveals get verified with a single ZK proof, cent-priced covenants, and you can stake NIL for capacity instead of paying per covenant. As volume grows the network starts paying for itself, so it can print less new NIL
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With @jumperapp signaling that it wants to align the community around $JUMP and the Legion raise capped at just 4% of supply, it’s hard not to think there’s a pretty fat airdrop coming that hopefully accounts for a meaningful chunk of the rest.
Less $HYPE and more $UNI like I guess...
PS5s and GTA 6 for everybody?
$JUMP sale on Legion is September 29
$75M FDV, $3M raise for 4% of supply
half unlocks at TGE, the other half over 4 months
you need an X account older than 180 days, 10 followers, one original public post in the last 90 days, and the account has to be public
not FCFS - they pick the top 500 by score
TGE float is going to be small
I doubt the airdrop is much bigger than the sale
if you’re not at least top 10k XP on @jumperapp, I wouldn’t get my hopes up
source
TG - airdropcosm
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Damn it you apes, couldn't size into this in time, but just a friendly PSA to 100% stay away from the wrapped version.
The ToS is sketchy AF, it looks like they vibe coded and forked some old Tao Bridge.
Has no security audits, zero liability + indemnification.
You'll have to take a few more steps to acquire it the right way, but there's a solution on the way...
There’s a mid cap I’ve done provisional discovery on I’m convinced has the chance to do what ZEC did for privacy for its sector.
Don’t have exposure (yet) and I’m a washed plumber, but haven’t felt this certain of something since Zcash and Hype, though it isn’t without controversy.
I delete this post if I’m wrong.
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Lanterns has got me absolutely hooked.
Dunno much about the lore of the Green Lanterns so going into this pretty green, but the John Stewart storyline and this backcountry setting is awesome.
Damon Lindelof is the goat.
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My early $VAR wallets from last December that got continuously blanked longing $ZEC looking gud for TGE.
Variational Pro is built to bring the trillion dollar OTC derivatives market fully on-chain, replacing Telegram groups and bank wires.
Omni for traders, Pro for institutions. Both built on the Variational protocol.
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