@splashsports my Pick 5 teammate asked to see the final card. Oh wait, I can't send it to him. I can't screenshot it because you don't show a consolidated view of the 5 picks with the lines. So I have to go back and see what we picked, type it out, and text it? Pls fix this shit

Restaurants are terrible businesses everyone knows this. QSR style stuff only improves as a biz at scale and with eventual portion reduction. Hundreds maybe thousands of people bitch about chipotle portions and other public equity chains too. It's not a "PE Bad" thing.

Here's why: A lot has been said of the 2021/2022 apartment transactions & construction of new supply in those markets, and what the significant interest rate increases did the value of the assets since then. Every asset falls into 1 of 3 buckets. 1) Dead on the interest rate hikes - those have already been foreclosed on 2) Impaired equity but still value to protect, those are putting cash in to meet debt extension tests or they sold at a loss but they moved on 3) Extremely cuspy if any equity value left, and an extremely slow bleed. A very significant chunk of assets fall into #3. The reason that it is going to happen now is because most of this stuff was financed on floating rate loans with 3 years initial term and two 1 year ext options. Because value was cuspy and equity was close to, or totally wiped out.. lenders haven't been as eager to resolve as they dealt with the stuff in category 1 where the outcome was obvious. A lot of the stuff in category 3 had situations where preferred equity recapitalized the deal in hopes that things would improve. The problem is that fundamentals did not improve, rates did not come down, expenses continued to go up. In Texas for example, taxes are now going to be applied higher than underwritten as HFC goes away. There also doesn't appear to be any near term relief in sight in the way of rates. From the lenders perspective, they already have foreclosed on stuff in category 1 and they either own it or took the pain of that and they're tired of dealing with it. For groups who still have equity and want to take another bite at the apple, they will try to negotiate a discounted pay off with their lender and recap the deal once again at a lower basis where they think the math can work.

I realize this is specifically millennial but still