The model is back. Free inputs: @UnderstatXG, @FotMob, @SpreadexSport/@sportingindex, @vaastav05, xMins from free @fplreview & @SolioAnalytics, any public studies on minutiae like red-card-advantage. Paid inputs: @FFScout data. Enjoy 👊🥝.

There is no singular point at which a player becomes good or bad, this is binary thinking, which our brains use as a shortcut. As I said in an earlier post, if you think Palmer's underlying projections are too high, then one (or both) of two things must therefore be true: - Chelsea's team attack is rated too high - Chelsea's others attackers are rated too low x.com/SolioAnalytics/status/… We are currently projecting him at 0.32 non-pen goals p90 for the next 12 gameweeks, and he put up 0.27 last season in the Premier League, and 0.38 the season before.

Really really missing FBRef these days, relied on it so much for years and nothing else seems to quite do the trick I just want something like when I go through someone's history like on Football Manager but with actual data, that's all I need

FPL managers will call people who use models copycats, then all hold each other’s hands as they transfer out João Pedro for Nicolas Jackson. 💤🐑

Let's just check in and see how Elliot Anderson is getting on... Yup, that'll do.

Konsa guys all using solvers and software. Games gone.

Cringe

On a simple 6GW sample, removing a player's best xG score decreases accuracy rather than improving it. There is some case to be made for down-weighting outliers, but throwing them out entirely is also throwing out useful signal, so be careful

💹 Market goal projections | GW8 Latest spread market-inferred projections for this round of PL games, via SpreadEx - assumes a player starts (Shared for info only - Solio model projections will differ)

Man Utd’s underlying numbers under Carrick haven’t changed at all. 25/26: +0.37 npxGD per game 26/27: +0.36 Their goal difference has: 25/26: +0.94 npGD per game 26/27: −0.14 Last season the finishing and keeping were running hot. This season it’s the other way round

battles I envisage are: Bouaddi vs Cherki in the centre Nunes vs Khusanov (mostly fitness) Foden vs Ndiaye I'm assuming O'Reilly will still be out. I'll update it close to DL if I get chance but just a heads up on thought process if anyone cares =]

Look away now Gonzalo García #FPL owners 😅

Gonzalo García v Dominic Calvert-Lewin, #FPL GW1-7

Thanks for the advice lads

#FPL GW1-6 edition: Expected vs Projected! ✅ Comparing: 📊 xG/xGC (expected goals) 🧠 prG/prGC (projected goals, from sharp market data) ⚽ GF/GA (goals scored or conceded) ⚖️ Fixture difficulty (prG/prGC of a "league average" team given this fixture run) Key facts below... 🧵

WOW

FPL is almost back

Every FPL manager has agonised over a benching decision, and then end up starting the blank and benching the haul. So does rotation actually work? We checked @SolioAnalytics's deadline-locked projections for every 2025-26 gameweek against what actually happened 🧵

4-4 on aggregate... Clint Dempsey produces this 🤯 #UEL