this is what milei gets wrong: yes, printing money generates inflation, and politicians are responsible for doing so since they get elected by giving money to people.
however, at the end of the day, the limiting factor of an economy like argentina’s is its ability to get enough dollars to pay for its imports and service its foreign debt. if you can’t get enough dollars, even if you don’t print local currency, something has to adjust. you can use reserves or debt for a while, but eventually the currency has to depreciate, constraining imports and making exports more competitive.
the problem is that this process quickly accelerates the prices of imported goods and imported inputs that are used throughout the entire economy. the devaluation therefore propagates through domestic prices and generates inflation.
there are two different problems here: the fiscal and monetary constraint, and the external constraint. solving the first doesn’t automatically solve the second.
so yes, printing money generates inflation, but even if you don’t print money, you can still have inflation. fiscal balance and monetary discipline are necessary for long-term stability, but they are not sufficient.
argentina needs dollars -> imports + foreign debt create structural dollar demand -> insufficient fx supply -> reserves fall / imports contract / peso depreciates -> imported inputs become more expensive -> exchange rate pass through -> inflation
add to this the milkshake theory: dollar shortage -> stronger dollar -> harder to service dollar debt -> greater demand for dollars -> stronger dollar
and you have something that explains why dollars can become globally scarce + the external constraint explains why that scarcity is particularly painful for countries that need dollars + exchange rate pass through explains how the dollar shortage can become domestic inflation.
argentina can print zero pesos and still have inflation. the part that a big part of the left doesn’t understand, and milei does, is that if you print money, sooner rather than later, you will get inflation.
Why does Turkey run 90 percent inflation? The answer sounds backwards. They cannot get dollars.
Everything runs through the dollar. Every country, every bank is plugged in, because you need dollars to transact globally.
But when the system tightens, providers get picky. They lend only where there is safety and liquidity. Argentina and Turkey do not qualify.
So their banks cannot get the dollars their companies need, and everyone is forced into the local currency instead.
That is where the spiral starts. The currency falls, the country looks riskier, the premium to deal with it rises, and the currency falls again.
Here is the paradox at the center of it. The worst inflation in the world is not too many dollars. It is not enough of them.