Chief economist GlobalData TS Lombard
Deal, England
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It makes sense to issue less at the very long end cos real money demand seems to be globally weaker there. Problem for US is that average maturity is already <6 and rates are going up. Would make more sense in the UK - average maturity 14 and rates going down
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Not surprised: US Treasury to double buybacks of long-term government debt - ft.com/content/777c9014-2f12… via @FT
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Probably more case fo the UK DMO to continue shortening, especially given the average maturity and shift from DB to DC. Why rely on hedge funds to intermediate at the long end every time there is a shock, and the BoE reacts hawkishly?
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@toby_n__ bang on as ever on this. Will post his article when I get back to my desk. Good IMF research here too.
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Great chatting with Chad Thomas this morning on Bloomberg. Looking forward to catching up with @lizzzburden at 7:20 on the radio side.
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Glad to see that someone is keeping a proper tab on China shocks. 5.0 is in here: The next China shock will come from open-source AI ft.com/content/2f705a5a-2c4e… via @ft
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omg. i love that there are like actual practical policies surfacing. this one: How Burnham can curb Britain’s tax-dodging shops ft.com/content/936c1856-a049… via @ft ...and
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so important that we have diversity of voices in our academic institutions. autistic brains have a wholly different perspective to offer and it doesn't always fit in well or test in the same way but it comes up with things that would just never occur to others.
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Just hike rates already.
US Treasury undertakes historic intervention in yen market giftarticle.ft.com/giftartic…
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Ok just to be clear, before anyone asks, I did not kick my son in the face whilst playing football. Glad we've established that. But the long-end might go Argentina on Warsh. open.spotify.com/episode/0bB…
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Is guess we just have to hope it hasn't re-steepened. Hyperglobalisation and then deleveraging made it flat. This is a different world.
The Phillips curve is incredibly flat. That means you need to drive unemployment in the US up a lot to bring inflation down even a little bit. That's the strongest argument against the Fed hiking now. The 40 bps markets price will do nothing to inflation.
robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/…
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See @toby_n__ 's @FT article. Net debt ratio is less than US. And btw higher yields in Japan just reflect a positive shift to wage growth. Good for Japan and good for the world. Just need the 2 year to catch up.
"Japan's debt isn't a problem" is a very weird line as interest payments soar, the yen crashes, and Japanese long-term bond rates rise
Yes, Japan's debt IS a big problem
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The problem is that reducing inequality between nations we have increased inequality within nations and made political systems more fragile, while the centre still has not come up with answers on how to fix this.
Extreme poverty worldwide has never been as low as it is today, and it's never fallen as fast as in recent decades.
We need more facts and less ideology...
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Freya Beamish retweeted
Long JPY?!?! Now That’s Nonconsensus…
JPY shorts are crowded right at a time when economic conditions, policy efforts, and asset markets are starting to shift in favor of Japan. The sort of dynamics that create the set up for a reversal.
bobeunlimited.substack.com/p…
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Hence why AI is creating demand ahead of supply. Investors chasing future demand for AI are creating wealth right now which reduces the need to save right now which creates inflation right now which means the Fed better keep up or they're going to end up crashing the whole thing next year
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