Managing Partner, The Future Fund LLC, SEC registered investment adviser. CEO/CIO/PM. linkedin.com/in/garydblack. Disclosure: bit.ly/3fQ8ojd

Chicago, IL
Some basic lessons for new investors to live by: 1/ Ignore the crowd. You make money by going against the consensus. 2/ Always pick stocks where you feel you have a research edge. 3/ You rarely go wrong investing in the company with the best product. 4/ Don’t listen to management. They are paid to be bullish. 5/ Study competitors, suppliers, and customer behavior. Be a product junkie. 6/ Have in your mind what you think a stock is worth, which is different from price. 7/ Be able to articulate in one sentence why you own a stock. 8/ Develop specific downside scenarios that would cause you to sell the stock. 9/ The highest quality of growth is unit growth, then pricing, then margin expansion, then cash reinvestment. 10/ Be wary of companies that grow by buying other companies. 11/ Sell discipline is selling a stock once it exceeds your price target, or if your investment thesis changes. 12/ Short stocks that have bad businesses, and not because they trade at high P/Es. 13/ Two big value creators are brand extension and TAM expansion stories. 14/ High P/Es are a function of high future growth rates, and not the industry. 15/ When investing in growth stocks always look for a controversy (“fight”). 16/ Buy stocks that can leverage key secular megatrends, and avoid those that will be hurt by them. 17/ Always consider cannibalization of existing products when sizing up new product opportunities. 18/ Be wary of “hockey stick” sales forecasts absent new products or expansion to new distribution channels. 19/ Stock buybacks are accretive if the E/P ratio exceeds the after tax cost of debt or return on cash. 20/ Price cuts rarely add value since they often create a race to the bottom. 21/ Stocks are cheap if price is less than the present value of future cash flows. A high P/E does not make a stock expensive.
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$META is drawing growing attention around its consumer AI strategy as Muse strengthens the company’s push into personal AI assistants and raises comparisons with $AAPL when it launched iPhone in 2007. META’s 3.6 billion-user base across Facebook, Instagram and WhatsApp is a major competitive moat, giving the company enormous reach as it integrates Muse across its existing platforms. Meta has successfully combined AI, hardware and data, with Muse providing the software layer and products such as smart glasses serving as one of several possible interfaces.
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The notion that only $TSLA can achieve unsupervised autonomy in EVs is as idiotic as thinking only Chat GPT/ Anthropic’s Claude/ $GOOG’s Gemini, and now $META Muse can build an AI agent that pays your bills, shops, makes bookings, and otherwise runs your life. Barriers to entry are not sky high, substitute products are plentiful, and many formidable competitors are chasing the pot of gold at the end of the rainbow. Big difference: $META trades at 25x 2026 Adj EPS, while $TSLA is priced at 230x 2026 Adj EPS. Both are expected to grow revs over the next 5 years at +18%.
Replying to @garyblack00
You keep saying $TSLA self driving is over valued because everyone will offer it eventually. Not the case with AI agents? Pu-lease.
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I believe $META will continue to move higher as investors better appreciate the disruptive power and reach of META’s new Muse personal AI agent to shop, pay bills, and manage their lives. At 24x 2026 EPS vs long-term future rev and EPS growth of +15%, META still looks attractive despite a +30% gain so far in September (vs NDX +3%). Bloomberg Opinion By Dave Lee 09/23/2026 04:30:07 I’m Using Meta’s AI Agent and Amazon Can’t Stand It. ▪Meta Platforms Inc. has released a new AI agent called Muse, which can organize calendars, scour Facebook Marketplace, and buy things from Amazon, but Amazon has blocked Muse from accessing its store. ▪The move is a sign of things to come as Silicon Valley giants try to protect their entrenched advantages in the age of artificial-intelligence agents, and consumers will lose out if their preferred agent can't work well with the full range of digital services. ▪The issue of interoperability, or the ability for AI agents to talk to services and to one another, becomes the central question, and companies may need to find ways to work together or risk being forced to open up, with the courts potentially being asked to judge what's fair. (Bloomberg Opinion) -- Meta Platforms Inc. is rightly receiving plaudits for its new AI agent, Muse. I’ve been using it, and it’s plainly the most impressive product Meta has released in years. Harold — the name I gave to my bot — works to organize my calendar, scour Facebook Marketplace for good deals and buy things, with my blessing, from Amazon.com Inc. Except, actually, scratch that last example. Amazon has blocked poor Harold, along with all the other Muse agents, from accessing its store. The move is a sign of things to come as Silicon Valley giants try to protect their entrenched advantages in the age of artificial-intelligence agents.  Consumers will lose out if their preferred agent can’t work well with the full range of digital services to which they have become accustomed. These competitors will need to find ways to work together or risk being forced to open up. Meta has surprised many, myself included, to be the first of the tech giants to popularize a consumer AI agent, the term given to an AI bot that can carry out tasks on its own. “Muse is a killer product and an inflection point,” wrote analysts at Jefferies, who raised the company’s stock price target to $875 a share, compared with $736.60 at Tuesday’s close. Sensor Tower said Muse had been downloaded some 900,000 times over six days. But a head start doesn’t win the race, and Amazon’s action against Muse’s agents will not be the only instance of a competitor putting up the barriers. Muse isn’t the first AI bot Amazon has sought to block from being able to autonomously shop on its store. It did the same to Perplexity earlier this year, throwing in a lawsuit for good measure. Amazon contends its motive is security and data privacy: How does it know a bot is genuinely acting on a real customer’s wishes? There are also other obvious factors. AI agents don’t look at or click on advertising. And Amazon would much prefer people to use its AI shopping bot instead. If Muse wins and becomes a popular way to buy goods online, Amazon would, to those customers, become a faceless logistics company. Relatedly, Shopify — already a faceless logistics company by design — announced on Tuesday that it was partnering with Muse, though no terms were disclosed. Such deals might force Amazon’s hand. Some of the tension stems from the prevailing wisdom that says, in consumer AI, one personal AI agent may end up conquering them all, in the way that Google triumphed in online search or Apple won with the iPhone.
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2/ To achieve that kind of footing, however, a bot will need to do all of the things, handling tasks and accessing data across the platforms and devices the public is familiar with already. Interoperability — the ability for these bots to talk to these services, and to one another — becomes the central question. What good is a Google AI assistant if it can’t buy things from Amazon or look up things on community groups on Facebook? How useful is Amazon’s Alexa if “she” can’t access the real-world data trove of Google Maps? How smart is a Meta bot — cover your ears, Harold — if it can’t access Google or Amazon? But then, flip the question over: Why should Google (or any company) share what has taken years and billions of dollars to build?  It has the makings of an all-out brawl as companies find ways to maneuver around restrictions placed on them by their rivals while simultaneously taking steps to protect their own golden goose. The courts will be asked to judge what’s fair. “If a company has a monopoly or market dominance in a certain area,” explained Fiona M. Scott Morton, a Yale economics professor who specializes in antitrust matters, “and along comes AI to erode that dominance, the actions that that firm takes to maintain its dominance might be an unlawful maintenance of a monopoly.” We should feel grateful that it’s a feature of the US tech industry, rather than a bug, that this is an issue at all. In China, companies such as Tencent have no such worry, given how much of what the Chinese consumer would want in a chatbot is under their singular roof. In the West, no one company does it all. For the past 20 years, the biggest tech companies have only dabbled in one another’s core lanes — like Microsoft Corp. trying to make a good search engine — and shared only the biggest of pies, such as cloud computing and online advertising. AI agents are a different story. America’s tech giants are truly competing on them. Thinking about this brought to mind a row in 2017 involving Google and Amazon. The former had suddenly decided to yank YouTube — a most golden of geese— from being accessible on Amazon’s Echo Show and Fire TV platforms. Google, which at the time was getting its competing home assistant and TV platform off the ground, complained Amazon’s conduit violated Google’s terms of service, “creating a broken user experience.” Both sides accused the other of putting customers in the middle. It took the best part of two years to be resolved. The stakes are far higher this time around. Expect a flurry of lawsuits. There will be attempts at some you-scratch-my-back deals, similar in nature to Google’s deal with Apple to be the default search engine on the iPhone. That deal has since been declared illegal (), but it was too late to make much difference - the search engine wars long over. One prediction might be that as the main platforms protect access to their own products, consumers end up being forced to juggle several agents at a time. Yuck. Not only would that be a dismal user experience, it would make it far more difficult for companies to eke out meaningful subscription revenue. If you use Muse excessively, Meta will charge a $16/month subscription to continue using it, rising to as much as $80/month for power users. Persuading the general public to pay for one AI agent is difficult; asking them to pay for several is a nonstarter. Another prediction is that Apple and Google, as proprietors of the two largest mobile operating systems, will be in an almost unassailable position. Their own agents — Siri AI and Gemini, respectively — can be more deeply integrated into their devices, providing a richness of data and access to a phone’s functions — such as the camera or text messages — that no other AI agents can easily match.
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3/ Tasks like shopping on Amazon can be handled by an AI navigating the apps that are already installed on a user’s device, and there will be very little companies could do about it, short of pulling those apps from app stores. In Europe, the Digital Markets Act demands Google open up Android to other AI providers for these deep, system-level functions, something the company has warned makes its devices less safe. Faced with the same rules, Apple has so far withheld Siri AI from the European market altogether. Like a toddler starting daycare, American AI makers don’t like discovering that sometimes they must share. The US has no equivalent legislation, and efforts to force interoperability would face severe pushback and lobbying effort. Legal battles risk being as long-winded and ultimately useless as the monopoly battles of old. So, as consumers, what we might realistically wish for is the following: an interoperability treaty and standard agreed between all the major technology companies, one built on the same principles of openness as the original conception of the World Wide Web. Only this way will AI agents reach their full potential by not being limited by competitive restrictions or backroom multibillion-dollar deals. Newcomers such as the buzzy Instinct bot or the open source OpenClaw, will have the same chances as deep-pocketed incumbents — and then it’s a case of may the best AI agent win. I’m rooting for ya, Harold.
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Kalshi now puts 61% odds on Dems taking back the U.S. Senate in November; Republicans now hold a 4-seat advantage 53-47. Kalshi now attaches a 91% chance to Dems taking control of the U.S. House which Rs now control 218-214 with 1 independent and 2 vacancies. 35 of 100 Senate seats and 100% of House seats are up for grabs on Election Day in 6 weeks on Nov 3.
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US stocks opened higher pre-mkt as oil fell and markets anticipated a positive Trump-Xi summit. Brent dropped 2% to $101.77/bbl, 10yr treasury yields eased, and chip stocks and Bitcoin rose. Last week, the Fed hiked short term rates by 25bp on oil-driven inflation from the Iran conflict; Markets expect a second 25bp hike by year-end. 2026 S&P 500 EPS estimates have continued to climb (+32% y/y to $365) and now imply a 21.0x forward P/E and a 4.8% earnings yield, which is below the 10-year Treasury yield vs a normal equity premium of 50-100bp. For greater detail, please see my daily pre-mkt summary for subscribers.
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$META AI agent Muse soars to #1 at Apple Apps store, ahead of Chat GPT.
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As I argued this morning, the Fed’s decision to raise rates and pencil in a second rate hike before year-end was probably the most bearish outcome of the three options before the Fed. A one-and-done interest rate hike would likely have been viewed more favorably by investors, but with a potential extended hiking trajectory now on the table, equities and particularly long duration equities could remain under pressure in the months ahead (RAG +2%, RAV +19% both YTD).
Possible Fed outcomes today: 1/ Bull case scenario: Dovish hike - Fed raises rates by 25bp and makes it clear that there are no plans to raise rates further (Fed will be data-dependent). One-and-done. 10-year TY likely retreats, good for equities. 2/ Moderate case scenario: Hawkish pause - No change in rates, but hawkish talk that signals a likely hike at next month’s meeting. Highly unlikely because next month’s meeting (10/27-28) is right before midterms. 10-yr TY likely flat or rises, mixed for equities. 3/ Bear case scenario: Hawkish hike - 25bp hike but with signal from Warsh this could be the first of several hikes. Unlikely since Warsh wants to get away from forward guidance. 10-yr TY likely increases, which is bad for equities, particularly long duration equities.
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The Federal Reserve voted unanimously to raise short term interest rates by a quarter percentage point to a range of 3.75-4.0%, and penciled in an additional 25bp hike later this year, steps aimed at containing inflation that will test Fed Chairman Warsh’s relationship with President Trump. “Today’s policy action will support a timelier return to the committee’s 2% goal,” officials said in a statement following the move Wednesday, referring to inflation. It was the US central bank’s first rate increase since July 2023. This goes against President Trump’s wish to reduce interest rates, although the Fed decision was likely in response to the 50% increase in the price of Brent crude since end of February, the result of the US war with Iran, which President Trump initiated. The market reaction was in line with expectations: 10-year TY dropped -5.1bp to 4.95%, and equities held onto earlier gains, with S&P 500 +0.4% and NDX +0.7%.
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Possible Fed outcomes today: 1/ Bull case scenario: Dovish hike - Fed raises rates by 25bp and makes it clear that there are no plans to raise rates further (Fed will be data-dependent). One-and-done. 10-year TY likely retreats, good for equities. 2/ Moderate case scenario: Hawkish pause - No change in rates, but hawkish talk that signals a likely hike at next month’s meeting. Highly unlikely because next month’s meeting (10/27-28) is right before midterms. 10-yr TY likely flat or rises, mixed for equities. 3/ Bear case scenario: Hawkish hike - 25bp hike but with signal from Warsh this could be the first of several hikes. Unlikely since Warsh wants to get away from forward guidance. 10-yr TY likely increases, which is bad for equities, particularly long duration equities.
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