I wanted to create a KenPom-style opponent adjustment for football efficiency, using points per drive instead of points per possession. It starts with each team’s raw PPD, then iteratively applies multiplicative updates based on opponent strength until the iteration converges. It’s still very early, so the ratings are noisy, but the opponent adjustments should become much more reliable as the season grows and the schedule network gets more connected. Florida off to a great start though 🐊

11 years ago today, Florida came back from down 27-14 in the 4th quarter to win 28-27 in the swamp. 4th and 14: Grier to Callaway. An instant classic.

And then got spanked by the Gators the following week

I think it’s safe to say that Florida and Ole Miss have the coolest coaches in the SEC

Miami actually had five straight losing seasons from 1969–1973. And thats a lot more recent than Florida’s last run of four straight losing seasons: 1935–1938.

One more day until kickoff. Florida wins 57% of the simulations by an avg score of 31-28. Second chart looks at different scenarios and how that shifts win probability. Go Gators 🐊

Using imperfect public estimates for NIL budgets, I modeled the relationship between NIL spending and on-field performance, measured by a composite of power ratings. The model gives each team an expected performance level based on its NIL budget. If a team performs above that expected value, it’s overperforming relative to its spending; if it falls below, it’s underperforming. I then measured the gap between each team’s actual performance and the model’s expected value - the residual - and ranked the SEC by that difference. Florida is 3rd.

Drive scoring rate vs. drive scoring rate allowed. Florida leads all Power 4 teams (+ND) in the percentage of offensive drives ending in points. Defensively, the Gators rank 41st in opponent drive-scoring rate.

The last time each SEC team won five straight games (includes across seasons). And the last time each SEC team won a bowl or playoff game. Surprisingly Auburn has the longest drought for both. Ole Miss near the top in both. Gotta respect it

Last time each SEC team was shut out - and the last time each pitched a shutout. Florida has the SEC’s longest active streak without being shut out, dating back to 1988. Auburn has gone the longest in the SEC without recording a shutout (yikes)

Drives like this one are what we were missing last year. 3 plays, 75 yards and a quick TD when we needed it to open the half. We already have 6 scoring drives this season that were 3 plays or less. This time last year we only had 1.

For the second straight week, Florida has the fewest players listed on the SEC injury report.

Florida vs Ole Miss: a respectful comparison Florida has the slight edge in the numbers but Ole Miss has played tougher competition. I dont know who is going to win this game, but what I do know is that I respect the hell out their team #respectoff

Completion rate vs yards per attempt, and rushing vs passing EPA. Florida, Georgia, and Miss state have elite offenses. Is that LSU and Texas A&M in the red? I expect to see Auburn there, but not those two..

Florida is currently number one in the SEC in drive scoring rate. But currently last in the SEC in total penalty yards per game. I’m not sure how much of that is actually a problem and how much of that is because we got terrible calls at Auburn.

Through the first 3 games: Lagway (2025) vs Philo (2026). I think we finally got a QB 🐊

I was so pissed when this play got called back - its such a beautiful throw And look how confused the Auburn DBs are before the snap. Buster had them in hell 🐊