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📊 Portfolio update: +36.18% YTD.
System 02 remains in cash after securing its gains on the last round. System 01 retains its exposure, recovering part of the recent pullback over the past two sessions.
This is the staged structure working as designed. The systems confirm and exit independently, so the portfolio is never all-in or all-out on a single signal.
Trends need patience to develop, and they rarely move in a straight line. System 02 will re-allocate when conditions confirm again.
The focus remains on systematic execution and disciplined risk management. Updated backtest below. ⬇️
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📊 Portfolio update: +44.00% YTD.
System 01 led the week, extending gains strongly into Friday's close and recovering the bulk of the recent pullback. The composite closed at its highs for the year.
Following Friday's daily close, System 02's conditions confirmed again and it has moved back into allocation. Both systems are now positioned.
Exposure builds in stages, not all at once. The systems confirm and exit independently, and each re-enters only when its own conditions are met. System 02 stepped aside on deterioration, secured its gains, and re-entered on confirmation. No prediction, just rules.
Trends need patience to develop, and they rarely move in a straight line.
The focus remains on systematic execution and disciplined risk management. Updated backtest below. ⬇️
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The updated backtest shows a cumulative gain of +191.67% since January 1, 2025.
System 01 and System 02, combined in a daily-rebalanced 50/50 allocation. Both systems are currently positioned, with System 02 back in allocation following Friday's daily close.
September 25, 2026 confirmed daily close. Historical backtested results do not guarantee future performance.
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$NQ momentum keeps resetting at the threshold. One break all year, March, and it announced itself.
Everyone calling the top is arguing with a line that has been right all year. Fade loses the line or the advance continues.
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$OTHERS printed the 5th cold signal on 9 August and has already left that zone.
Higher over 12 months is the setup.
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Prediction markets assign a 10% probability that $BTC trades 50K before 100K.
We aggregated the three signal studies our desk published near the low. Ten completed historical signals between them, all resolving higher within twelve months. The composite median implies 181K by September 2027.
Historical base rates, not a forecast. The record is linked. The future is not.
Source studies below.
BREAKING: 10% chance Bitcoin drops to $50,000 before $100,000
A $1,000 trade pays out $10,000 if it happens
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The EV-U trough. Four cycle-trough prints across fifteen years, four positive twelve months later, median +102%.
The February 2026 signal is 29 weeks old and tracking.
$BTC makes its own rules...
Our EV-U model has printed a cycle trough only 5 times in 15 years.
Every prior print marked a major bottom.
Where price went in the following 12 months is in the reply.
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⚠️ One caution.
These paths are monthly closes. The median prior signal drew down 25 percent inside the trend before resolving higher, and the 2019 path lost over 60 percent through the 2020 crash and still finished the year up triple digits. The destination has been consistent.
The route has never been smooth.
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US Session Bitcoin Outlook
$BTC is testing the must-hold Rolling VWAP near $83.2K. Price is falling as spot volume rises to +0.86σ, which is consistent with spot-led selling, while declining OI points to deleveraging rather than fresh shorts entering. The Residual Desk flags Bearish Distribution on both the current and 1D readings.
A confirmed loss of $83.2K would expose VWAP Below 1–3 near $80.2K, $79.9K, and $79.5K.
Short-term outlook only, not a trade signal.
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US02Y, US10Y and US30Y VMI are all within the mean and still bullish-yields regimes. The 2s and 10s are the ones pressing the upper band.
That is the curve catching the long end, not a regime flip. Yields grind until the book is proven otherwise.
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$82.4k is $BTC support that keeps the bounce alive. $86.1k–$87k is the first resistance. Acceptance through it opens continuation. Rejection there sends it back to the shelf.
US Session Bitcoin Outlook
$BTC is consolidating on the 4H chart as OI rebuilds, which is consistent with shorts adding but does not confirm it. The Residual Desk flags a Short Squeeze, while FSVZO has triggered a bullish reversal, creating near-term bounce potential.
However, spot volume remains below average at −0.34σ. Stronger spot participation is needed to validate the move. Holding $82.4K keeps $86.1K to $87K in play; losing support exposes $78.7K to $77.8K.
Short-term outlook only, not a trade signal.
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$BTC just printed the fourth FSVZO reversal. The first three were Dec 2011, Feb 2019 and Dec 2022. All three were higher 12 months later, +125% to +186%.
That is a small sample, not a design. Dips stay buys until the regime flips.
Higher first. $50k before $100k is the tail.
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📊 Portfolio update: +36.18% YTD.
System 02 remains in cash after securing its gains on the last round. System 01 retains its exposure, recovering part of the recent pullback over the past two sessions.
This is the staged structure working as designed. The systems confirm and exit independently, so the portfolio is never all-in or all-out on a single signal.
Trends need patience to develop, and they rarely move in a straight line. System 02 will re-allocate when conditions confirm again.
The focus remains on systematic execution and disciplined risk management. Updated backtest below. ⬇️
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The market faded the dollar into the bounce. The model has now flipped.
$DXY VMI spent the mid-year stretch bearish, moved through neutral, and flipped bullish with price still inside the mean. Momentum has now reclaimed the threshold after sitting under it.
Cowen had the direction in August. The model is catching the same turn as a change in state. It is not a finished dollar bull until price accepts toward the upper band and the regime holds.
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$MOVE left bearish for neutral on 16 September. Price is overbought on the upper band and momentum is building toward the bullish threshold.
That is vol waking up, not March reprinting. Overbought plus a new regime is the risk. It is not an equity-sell alarm on the first spike.
Interesting weekly close in front of us...
🔴Is the US stock market heading for a correction?
The ICE BofA MOVE Index, measuring Treasury volatility, surged +21% on Wednesday to its highest level since March, creating a growing divergence with the S&P 500.
Meanwhile, the 30-day correlation between the ICE BofA MOVE Index and the S&P 500 has fallen to -0.6, its most negative level since mid-June, showing that stocks are becoming more sensitive to sharp moves in Treasury yields.
A similar setup appeared in March 2026 and April 2025, when sharp increases in bond volatility coincided with major equity-market selloffs.
This highlights why the speed of moves in Treasury yields matters more for stocks than the absolute level of yields.
With bond volatility rising rapidly again, Treasury-market moves have become a major driver of equity prices.
Is the bond market setting the stage for the next equity correction?
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US Session Bitcoin Outlook
$BTC is consolidating on the 4H chart as OI rebuilds, which is consistent with shorts adding but does not confirm it. The Residual Desk flags a Short Squeeze, while FSVZO has triggered a bullish reversal, creating near-term bounce potential.
However, spot volume remains below average at −0.34σ. Stronger spot participation is needed to validate the move. Holding $82.4K keeps $86.1K to $87K in play; losing support exposes $78.7K to $77.8K.
Short-term outlook only, not a trade signal.
BREAKING : $700 billion has been added to US stocks, metals, and crypto in the last 15 minutes after Reuters reports US and Iran are exploring a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.
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