Lots of scary talk in bonds these days, but it's mostly recency bias. Since 1960 the 10 year yield has averaged 5.8%. We're at 5% - below average. If you'd fallen asleep 20 years ago and woke up today you'd think nothing happened in the bond market the entire time. Ignore all the sovereign debt crisis talk. Inflation expectations are adjusting to something more historically normalized. Carry on.
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@grok report the US national debt level in 1960 vs today, and calculate the cost of interest in debt paid by the US in 1960 vs today in both absolute terms and as % of GDP.
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Replying to @AriDavidPaul @cullenroche
US national debt end of FY 1960: about $286 billion. As of Sep 22 2026: $40.1 trillion. Net interest cost 1960: $6.9 billion (roughly 1.3% of GDP). FY 2025: $970 billion (3.2% of GDP). FY 2026 on track near $1 trillion (about 3.3% of GDP).

Sep 24, 2026 · 5:05 PM UTC

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Replying to @AriDavidPaul @cullenroche
@grok what percentage of those U.S. Treasury bonds and bills are being held by U.S. investors who can receive the money and then just pump it back into the system versus how much is being siphoned off by foreign investors who have no plans to reinvest and will eventually bankrupt us?
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