The field of 25 contestants is finalized for Friday nights vsin.com/nfl/final-field-nam…

Jonnu Smith is my play for TNF. Last week, he was shut out against a solid Jets defense that has been good against tight ends this year. The week before, though, against Minnesota, Jonnu had 2 catches for 50 yards. I’m looking for the bounce back Thursday night. The Packers’ OL is extremely banged up coming into this game, which could mean their tight ends need to help more in protection. Jonnu is by far the worst blocker of the Packers’ TE group, so on passing downs, he should be the one most likely to run routes. Through two weeks, Green Bay ranks 7th in 12-personnel usage (2 TE, 1 RB) and 7th in 13-personnel usage (3 TE, 1 RB). On top of that, WR3 Jayden Reed has been ruled out, which should create additional opportunities in the passing game. Receiving Yards Ladder Over 7.5: -110 DK 20+: +360 FD 30+: +950 CZR 40+: 13/1 DK 50+: 21/1 DK 60+: 31/1 DK If you want to get crazy, ATD is 7/1, and 2 TDs is as high as 100/1. *** Unit Sizing Some of you have asked about unit sizes. Generally, when laddering a play, you want to reduce your unit size as you move up the ladder because the probability decreases as the yardage threshold increases. For example, on a 5 step ladder, you might do: 1.00U 0.50U 0.25U 0.15U 0.10U

Thursday Night Football Kyle Pitts over 35.5 Yards -116 2u Falcons +6.5 -116 Kyle Pitts has consistently frustrated fantasy managers throughout his career, but I believe this matchup sets up for a ceiling performance. Both the head coach and offensive coordinator have publicly discussed getting Pitts more involved this week, which is encouraging from a usage standpoint. Pitts also cleared 35.5 receiving yards in 7 of 9 games with Michael Penix last season. On the other side, Packers linebacker Zaire Franklin is a player I watched extensively during my time as a Colts fan. Athletic tight ends have historically presented challenges for him, and I expect Atlanta to test that matchup with Pitts on crossing routes and other concepts designed to get him moving in space. I don't necessarily expect Penix to light up the box score, but I don't think he'll need to for the Falcons to cover. Green Bay's running game concerns me significantly without Josh Jacobs. MarShawn Lloyd hasn't shown much to this point, and I expect Kaleb Johnson to see increased usage. That's not a backfield that particularly concerns me. The Packers also enter this matchup dealing with multiple offensive line injuries. That's especially problematic for a team already struggling to establish the run and potentially forced into a more pass heavy approach. If Green Bay can't consistently create favorable down and distance situations, sustaining multiple drives could become difficult. Because of that, I'm not comfortable laying a touchdown with the Packers in this spot. The combination of the offensive line injuries, uncertainty in the backfield, and the well documented difficulty teams can have playing on a short week after an overtime game all work against Green Bay. Ultimately, I expect Atlanta to find enough success getting the ball to its trio of playmakers to stay within the number.

Tank Bigsby is my play today. Last week, the Jets ran for 152 yards on 39 carries with 2 rushing TDs against the Titans. Now a much stronger Eagles team gets a change to do damage. Bigsby only had 1 carry last week, but that workload shouldn’t be treated as his full season role. He still stayed involved on special teams with 2 kick returns for 50 yards. It’s also going to be extremely hot in Nashville today. That creates a couple paths to Bigsby getting more work: Philly can use him to give Saquon Barkley some reps off in the heat, or if the Eagles build a big lead, Bigsby could get plenty of garbage time carries. I’m betting on the bounce back today. Rushing Ladder: Attempts O 2.5 -102 5+ +525 Yards O 7.5 -122 20+ +425 30+ +900 40+ +1500 If you want to get crazy ATD is 8/1 and 2 TD's as high as 125/1.

DALLAS TURNER WALKOFF SACK FOR THE VIKINGS

I started a Substack. Football Done Right is where my NFL writing lives now: the Tuesday review, the Friday Lombardi Look Ahead, QB and power ratings, and deep dives like this one on why Dan Campbell has never fixed the Lions defense. Free and paid tiers. footballdoneright.substack.c…

Go fucking Bills.

Keon Coleman is my play tonight. Last year, Coleman had 2+ receptions in 12 of 13 games he played despite spending time in Sean McDermott’s doghouse. Week 1? Just 1 catch on limited opportunity, despite playing 50%+ of the snaps. Now he gets a Lions defense that just allowed 38 completions to the Saints and struggled to get off the field through the air. Detroit’s tendency to allow underneath completions and give opposing pass catchers room to work in the short and intermediate areas creates a favorable setup for Coleman to clear a low 2+ reception line, even without a major target spike. I’m betting on the bounce back. Give me Keon Coleman 2+ receptions. Receiving Yards Ladder: 2+ +140 HR 3+ +427 DK 4+ +1160 DK 5+ 30/1 HR

The Locker Room is FED UP with the Michael Penix Jr. situation. He’s been cleared by doctors, but says he still doesn’t feel ready to play. 👀 "He has been cleared to play football, but refuses to get on the football field."