Ex-Goldman Head of CDO Trading Geoff Williams (
@gwilliams81) on why credit markets move in step functions, not smooth lines.
Geoff Williams (MD @ Goldman Sachs | Traded ABS CDOs through 2008 | Co-ran CMBS, CDO & CRE loan trading | Now PM at 1543 Capital, the structured credit fund backed by Brevan Howard)
“Tens of billions of protection were sold for one tenth of 1% a year, on something that was never, ever supposed to take a loss.”
We cover:
- The worst days of 2008 on Goldman’s mortgage desk: a senior trader walking the floor telling people to check where their personal cash was sitting
- Why selling that protection looked smart on historical losses
- The repricing in real time: 8bps to 12 to 35 to 5 points up front
- The paradox: the tranche that could “never” lose is what let the bad origination happen
- The 3 commercial real estate cycles: malls, post-COVID office, & life science labs
- Why a $30M loan in Indianapolis is a better poker table than a $20B corporate capital stack
- Why Google Earth is a tool people would have paid $10,000 a month for
- His sizing rules: 50-100bps on anything that can go to zero, ~5% on the safest positions
- Why he wants 80-90% conviction, not 51/49: the opposite of power-law investing
- His answer on what makes an awful credit PM: an ecosystem view “so narrow that they can’t imagine a different functioning”
Highlights:
00:00 Intro
00:41 Inside Goldman's mortgage desk during the 2008 crisis
03:40 Trading CLOs, ABS CDOs, and TABX at Goldman
06:20 Why super senior AAA risk sold for 10 basis points
11:30 Sponsor break
12:00 How conduit CMBS is structured and tranched
14:40 Commercial real estate cycles: malls, office, life science
21:25 Opportunistic structured finance: where a small fund has edge
26:30 How to underwrite and price a CMBS bond
34:17 Desktop underwriting vs. seeing the property in person
40:01 CMBS return profile and position sizing for unknown unknowns
53:36 Luck vs. skill in finance careers over 20 years
58:15 Thinking in bets: entrepreneurship as cheap optionality
01:05:56 Hedging macro risk: deficits, rates, and AI disruption
01:13:15 How populist politics changes commercial real estate exposure
01:17:55 The biggest mistake structured credit PMs make