📈 Tracking what prediction markets price before the headline lands 🏷️ Tag me on any post for the market odds
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Introducing Happenline 🔮
Predictions in your feed.
We built it because the timeline moves fast, but prediction markets often move before the story is obvious.
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Reporters are back at the White House after a court order, but the press-ban fight isn't over. Kalshi sees a 24% chance the White House says it will end the ban by Oct. 1.
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'Forgotten Island' opens with strong reviews, but its near-perfect score may not hold. Rotten Tomatoes has it at 96%; Kalshi puts its chance of staying above 95% on Monday at 31%, down 59 points in 24 hours.
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A November Bank of England rate hike has become a strong favorite. Polymarket puts a 25-basis-point increase at 86%, up 16.5 points in 24 hours, as officials warn that inflation could persist.
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Maine's Senate race is sending mixed signals: a Siena poll puts Collins ahead, while UMass Lowell puts Jackson ahead. Polymarket still favors Democrats, with the Republican win chance at about 33%, up 6 points in 24 hours.
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A direct U.S. strike on Iran is becoming more plausible, though no strike remains the favored outcome through September. Polymarket puts the chance of no direct strike at about 85%, down 5 points in 24 hours.
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After $BTC fell below $85,000, a rebound to $87,500 this month is no longer the market's base case. Polymarket puts the chance at about 38%, down about 40 points in 24 hours.
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The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield is nearing 5.2% after reaching 5.11% on Wednesday. Polymarket now puts the chance of touching 5.2% this year at 77%, up 39 points in 24 hours.
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After September's hike, another quarter-point Fed increase in October is now the market's base case. Polymarket puts the chance at 64.5%, up 12 points in 24 hours.
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A new Berkeley IGS poll puts Nithya Raman ahead of Karen Bass in the L.A. mayor's race, 39% to 28%, with a third undecided. Polymarket now puts Raman's win chance at 58%, up 16 points in 24 hours.
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Michigan's Senate race is moving toward Democrats. Abdul El-Sayed leads Mike Rogers by seven points in a new Suffolk poll, while Kalshi puts a Democratic win at 72%, up 5 points in 24 hours.
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Talks over Hormuz are back, but an official U.S. announcement to lift its Iran blockade by Oct. 31 is still a long shot. Polymarket puts the chance at 33%, down 6 points in 24 hours.
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A new Marist poll puts Democrat Josh Turek ahead in Iowa's Senate race. Kalshi still narrowly favors a Republican win, at about 55%, down from 60%.
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Democrats have opened a clearer lead in the 2028 presidential race. Polymarket now gives the party a 66.5% chance of winning the White House, up 6 points in 24 hours.
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The CLARITY Act is gaining momentum, and the market is starting to price in a real path to passage. Kalshi now puts the chance of comprehensive U.S. crypto market structure legislation becoming law this year at about 44%, up 19 points in 24 hours.
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An Anthropic IPO before November no longer looks like the base case. Kalshi now puts the chance of confirmation at about 47%, down 22 points in 24 hours.
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Ulf Kristersson's chances of staying on as Sweden's prime minister have jumped ahead of Sunday's election. Polymarket now puts his chance at about 28%, up 11 points in 24 hours.
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A September rate hike is now the market's clear base case. Kalshi puts the chance of a 25 bp increase at about 81%, up 20 points in 24 hours.
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