Every Round 1 Pick: According to 1M Mock Drafts
StickToTheModel tracked every fan Mock Draft this offseason. Here's what the crowd says your team is doing Thursday night.
No trades - this is the board as it falls. See your teams picks here.
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Las Vegas Raiders | Pick #1
Fernando Mendoza, QB, Indiana
Mendoza is a pro-ready pocket passer with quick processing and real arm talent, exactly what Kubiak's offense needs to function at an NFL level. 99% of fans landed here. The Raiders haven't had a franchise QB in a generation. The crowd didn't deliberate on this one.
Our take: Mendoza will learn fast going up agains Mahomes, Herbert and Sean Payton 2x year.
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New York Jets | Pick #2
Arvell Reese, EDGE, Ohio State
Reese is the most fluid edge rusher in the class. Uncommon athleticism for his size with a pass-rush toolkit that projects as a double-digit sack threat. Aaron Glenn's defense is built around disruption and Reese is the centerpiece.
Jets finished last season with 26 sacks - second fewest in the NFL. 87% of fans landed here. With Geno Smith bridging at QB, the crowd correctly identified this as a defensive pick.
Our Take: Jets have three first-rounders in the next two drafts. The rebuild is officially on
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Arizona Cardinals | Pick #3
David Bailey, EDGE, Texas Tech
A bendy, productive edge who can win from a wide-nine on Day 1 - the premium pass-rush presence Arizona hasn't had since Chandler Jones. Plugs into LaFleur's rebuild as a cornerstone on a defense that needs one
Cardinals-fan sims land on Bailey, narrowly edging Mauigoa (28%) and Reese (24%). Reporting lines up: Arizona reportedly "wants" Bailey, and has already fielded trade calls from Dallas.
Our take: The real drama isn't the pick - it's whether GM Marmol can resist Jerry Jones' phone call long enough to actually make it.
Bailey barely edges out Mauigoa (pun intended)
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Tennessee Titans | Pick #4
Jeremiyah Love, RB, Notre Dame
Cam Ward needs a run game and a safety valve, and Pollard alone isn't moving the Titans out of the AFC South basement. Love is the rare RB worth a top-5 pick.
Fans are locked in - 74% want Love here. The Titans need help everywhere around Ward but the crowd sees Love as the best player available and the most immediate difference-maker.
Our take - Titans fans want the skill-position swing and they're getting it.
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New York Giants | Pick #5
Caleb Downs, S, Ohio State
Downs is the best safety in this class standout at Ohio State who diagnoses plays before they develop. Immediate starter. Makes everyone around him better. The kind of player you build a defense around.
Giants need to rebuild the defense after losing Dexter Lawrence. With Reese and the top tackle gone, the crowd converged on Downs as the pick 43% of the time at a position of real need. Giants use their own pick to anchor the secondary.
Our take: The rare situation where the fan favorite is also almost always available - Harbaugh and Wilson get their tone-setter.
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Cleveland Browns | Pick #6
Carnell Tate, WR, Ohio State
Big-bodied X receiver with contested-catch chops and polished route detail - exactly the perimeter threat Cleveland has lacked since Amari Cooper left. Gives Gabriel or Sanders a true alpha to throw to on third down and in the red zone.
Browns fans take Tate here, with Caleb Downs (21%) and Francis Mauigoa (14%) well behind. The free agency splurge on Howard, Johnson, and Jenkins quietly took tackle off the critical-need list, and Tate is available in 25% of all sims at six.
Our take: After a full offseason rebuilding the line in free agency, passing on the best receiver on the board to double-dip at tackle would be the kind of move that gets a GM fired.
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Washington Commanders | Pick #7
Sonny Styles, OLB, Ohio State
Dan Quinn's defense needs a chess piece who can cover, blitz, and set an edge — Styles is that exact hybrid, and Washington's second level is still thin after the offseason churn.
Styles slipped when the Giants went Downs at five. Washington gets a linebacker who could have been a top-five pick at a discount. The board worked in their favor.
Our take: if Styles falls to the Commanders that's the best value in the first half of the round.
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New Orleans Saints | Pick #8
Rueben Bain Jr, DL3T, Miami
Bain is a disruptive 3-tech who wins with power and first-step quickness - exactly the foundation piece a defensive rebuild needs. New Orleans ranked dead last in sack rate last season and hasn't had a reliable interior disruptor since David Onyemata left for Green Bay.
26% of fans landed here — the crowd prioritized defensive line. New Orleans needs juice up front and the board delivers Bain as the best available pass rusher.
Our take: unsexy for Saints fans, but the right bet for a roster that has to rebuild from the line out.
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Kansas City Chiefs | Pick #9
Mansoor Delane, CB, LSU
With Bain and Downs off the board, Spagnuolo pivots to the other glaring need: a long press corner to replace Trent McDuffie. Delane is a Virginia Tech riser with the length and ball skills Spags can throw at Ja'Marr Chase twice a year.
Fans want Bain first (62%) then Downs (16%) but with both players gone they set their sights on Delane (6%) to rebuild the secondary. Three secondary starters walked out the door this offseason - that gets addressed immediately.
Our take - Veach trades back. He always finds a way to get more picks.
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New York Giants | Pick #10
Jordyn Tyson, WR, Arizona State
Nabers needs a real running mate, and Tyson's separation profile gives Dart an actual WR2 instead of another JAG. Slots in Day 1 as the X opposite Nabers.
With Downs already off the board at 5, fans take Tyson at 17%. The trade compensation from Dexter Lawrence just turned into a Day 1 starting receiver. That's a win.
Our take: Giants get a safety at five and a receiver at ten. The Lawrence trade will age really well, really fast.
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Miami Dolphins | Pick #11
Francis Mauigoa, OT, Miami
Miami's offensive line has been a five-alarm fire since Terron Armstead's body gave out. Mauigoa is a plug-and-play right tackle with the length and anchor to stabilize the edge immediately.
Fans wanted a top 2 WR or Delane. With both players gone they build in the trenches and take the consensus second tackle on the board. Sometimes the board makes the decision for you.
Our take: Not the sexy pick. Mauigoa protecting Willis is more valuable than another weapon Willis doesn't have time to throw to.
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Dallas Cowboys | Pick #12
Jermod McCoy, CB, Tennessee
Dallas doesn't buy the injury propaganda. McCoy is a corner with the athleticism and physicality to play on the outside. Dallas has secondary issues and McCoy addresses a real positional need before the Cowboys use their second pick on the defensive front.
Cowboys fans are all-in on Caleb Downs. Then Mansoor Delane. Both are gone by the time Dallas picked andMcCoy is the best available secondary option.
Our take: prime candidate to trade up. The Cowboys got stymied three times in the first 12 picks in this scenario
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Los Angeles Rams | Pick #13
Makai Lemon, WR, USC
Stafford's window is measured in months, not years. Davante Adams is 33. Pairing Puka Nacua with another separator gives him a real shot at one more deep run. Lemon is a precise route-runner who wins instantly underneath and vertically.
28% of fans landed here — the crowd's most common pick for LA in this range. Receiver is the need and the fit with McVay's system is clean.
Our take: Lemon in a McVay offense is going to be a problem
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Baltimore Ravens | Pick #14
Olaivavega Ioane, OG, Penn State
Ioane is the most pro-ready interior lineman in this class out of Penn State - best pass-blocker at the position, immediate starter at center or guard. Baltimore lost Tyler Linderbaum and the interior needs to be addressed before Lamar takes another hit.
25% of fans landed here. Ravens lost their starting center in free agency. Ioane is the best available player at the position of greatest urgency.
Our take: another classic Ravens value pick
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Tampa Bay Buccaneers | Pick #15
Kenyon Sadiq, TE, Oregon
Sadiq is the most versatile tight end in this class out of Oregon - lines up inline, in the slot, split wide. A genuine mismatch weapon. Baker Mayfield has needs a weapon like this to replace Mike Evans and it adds versatility to what Tampa's offense can do on every down.
Fans take Sadiq here 23% of the time. With the best edge options gone,Sadiq is the best available player and Tampa takes talent over need.
Our take: impact player that should see meaningful volume in year 1
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New York Jets | Pick #16
Omar Cooper Jr, WR, Indiana
Garrett Wilson needs a real WR2, and Cooper Jr gives Geno Smith a physical outside target with contested-catch juice.
Only 6% of fans landed here. The ideal scenario for Jets fans would be a trade back with the Chargers, who want to jump ahead for pass rush. Jets slide back and Cooper is still on the board. Both sides get exactly what they came for.
Our take: love the player and fit... just not at pick 16
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Detroit Lions | Pick #17
Monroe Freeling, OT, Georgia
Freeling is a first-round tackle with the technique and athleticism to protect Jared Goff. Detroit's line was a strength. Now it's a need. Freeling fixes it.
45% of fans landed here — the crowd's most confident pick outside the top five. Lions finished 31st in pass block win rate. Taylor Decker is gone. The need is obvious, the fit is clean, the crowd agrees.
Our take: hard to see Detroit going any other direction Thursday if he's still on the board
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Minnesota Vikings | Pick #18
Dillon Thieneman, S, Oregon
Harrison Smith's retirement left a huge hole in the middle of Brian Flores' defense, and Thieneman is the closest thing in this class to a plug-and-play replacement. Range, instincts, tackling.
Fans are genuinely split: 28% Thieneman, 26% McCoy. Both are on the board in 25% and 24% of sims respectively. Safety edges it because the CB room is functional; the post-Smith safety room is not.
Our take: pragmatic pick - Flores gets his chess piece back.
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Carolina Panthers | Pick #19
Kevin Concepcion, WR, Texas A&M
A third straight Round 1 WR sounds insane until you remember Dan Morgan openly said there's no rule against it and Canales listed WR among his top targets at 19. Concepcion is a Raleigh kid who fits the slot/flanker role behind McMillan and Coker.
Panther fans are genuinely scattered: Thieneman (22%), Sadiq (20%), Concepcion (15%), Freeling (9%). Canales said he drafts for impact and Concepcion plays Day 1.
Our take: OL also in play. Young needs protection as much as he needs weapons
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Dallas Cowboys | Pick #20
Keldric Faulk, EDGE, Auburn
Dallas turns to the other glaring need: a long-term EDGE partner for Micah Parsons as DeMarcus Lawrence ages out. Faulk's 6'6", 290-pound frame is the exact archetype Jerry circles.
30% of Cowboys fans landed here — the Cowboys' most confident pick anywhere on the board. After bolstering the secondary at 12, Dallas now address the line of scrimmage.
Our take: The most on-brand Cowboys pick on the board - Jerry gets his edge, the model agrees.
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Pittsburgh Steelers | Pick #21
Kadyn Proctor, OT, Alabama
Broderick Jones has settled in on the right side, and Proctor gives Pittsburgh a true franchise left tackle to protect whoever ends up under center. An SEC-tested, 6'7" road-grader fits the identity of Pittsburgh.
14% of fans landed here - modest support. Technique concerns and a potential move inside keep the crowd from fully committing. Steelers take the upside anyway.
Our take: boring is good when boring means ten years of clean pockets for your future QB1 (not on roster).
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Los Angeles Chargers | Pick #22
Peter Woods, DL, Clemson
Woods is a disruptive defensive lineman out of Clemson — first-step quickness, ability to penetrate gaps and create chaos in the backfield. Three Chargers pass rushers hit free agency after this season. Woods is the future of that unit.
Fans land on Woods 11% of the time, narrowly ahead of EDGE Akheem Mesidor (7%). Fans also like Proctor (21%) but with him off the board the Chargers shift their attention to Woods.
Our take: Chargers draft for the future without abandoning the present. Smart front offices do both at once.
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Philadelphia Eagles | Pick #23
Caleb Lomu, OT, Utah
Lane Johnson turns 36 this season, and Philly has no heir apparent at right tackle. Lomu is a plug-and-play swing tackle who can redshirt a year behind Johnson and take over in 2027.
Most Eagles fans agree on the positional need - 48% want a tackle here, with Proctor (19%), Freeling (11%), and Lomu (11%) splitting the vote. The board dictates which decision they go.
Our take: the safest, most Eagles-coded pick on the board.
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Cleveland Browns | Pick #24
Denzel Boston, WR, Washington
Boston is the big-bodied X receiver who pairs cleanly with Tate on the other side - a contested-catch red-zone threat that gives whoever wins the Gabriel/Sanders QB job a margin for error. Different archetype than Tate, not a redundant pick.
Boston is on the board 58% of the time at pick 24. Browns fans wanted OT or WR here; with Lomu often gone by now, Boston gives this years and next years QB pick the best chance a Browns QB1 has had to succeed in 20+ years.
Our take: Two Round 1 receivers sounds indulgent until you remember Deshaun Watson still has a pulse.
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Chicago Bears | Pick #25
Kayden McDonald, DL1T, Ohio State
The Bears need youth and mass on the interior next to Gervon Dexter, and McDonald is the cleanest 1-tech run-plugger in this class. With Ben Johnson running the offense, the defense has to hold up on early downs.
Fans land on McDonald 11% of the time — a low number, but the highest on a board where no one agrees. Fans are all over the map: safety 37%, edge 18%, tackle 18%, with Thieneman (29%) the loudest single name. Unfortunately, he's likely to be long gone.
Our take: Not the pick that lights up Twitter, but the one that fixes a real problem.
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Buffalo Bills | Pick #26
Cashius Howell, EDGE, Texas A&M
Bend-and-burst edge rusher with scheme-proof pass-rush traits. The perfect succession piece behind Chubb and woks nicely alongside Rousseau, especially under a brand-new defensive staff.
Bills fans are split three ways at 26 (25% McDonald, 20% Cooper Jr, 11% Howell). While fans lament how the Bills failed to provide Josh Allen adequate weapons in recent years, their inability to get pressure on the QB has been their downfall in the playoffs.
Our take: If the last three playoff exits taught Buffalo anything, it's that you beat elite QBs with pressure - not more weapons.
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San Francisco 49ers | Pick #27
Max Iheanachor, OT, Miami
Iheanachor is a long, movement-gifted blocker who fits Shanahan's wide-zone scheme immediately as a swing tackle / tackle of the future.
Even with the Trent Williams extension, fans agree that OT is the top positional need followed by Edge. Iheanachor is available at 27 in 96% of sims and the 49ers fans can't resist.
Our take: 49ers should go edge. Elite pass rushers at this price don't come around twice.
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Houston Texans | Pick #28
Blake Miller, OT, Clemson
Houston's tackle room has been held together with tape since they traded Laremy Tunsil to Washington. Miller is a plug-and-play right tackle with the footwork to handle NFL speed rushers on Day 1. Keeps CJ Stroud upright.
Miller is on the board 92% of the time at pick 28. Texans fans take Miller 8% of the time - a low number because Texans fans overwhelmingly wanted McDonald (43%), who's typically gone by 25. OT was the second-loudest position in HOU sims at 27%.
Our take: good pick - did you see the Patriots playoff game
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Kansas City Chiefs | Pick #29
Colton Hood, CB, Tennessee
Spagnuolo plays more nickel/dime than anyone in football, and with Trent McDuffie traded to the Rams the CB room has a starter-sized hole. Hood is long, physical in run support, and can play outside or kick inside.
Hood is available here 92% of the time. Fans have him as the runaway consensus at 25%. CB leads the way from a positional need at 28%, with S (16%) and EDGE (19%) as secondary themes. Doubling up in the secondary is peak Veach.
Our take: Two corners in a single draft is entirely on-brand. OT or WR also in play here.
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Miami Dolphins | Pick #30
Emmanuel McNeil-Warren, S, Toledo
With Jevon Holland gone, Miami's safety room is a void. McNeil-Warren is a rangy, physical Day 1 starter next to whoever's left.
McNeil-Warren is on the board 89% of the time at pick 30. Fans want a safety here 35% of the time, and Thieneman (24%) is the favorite but he's typically gone in the early 20s leaving McNeil-Warren (11% consensus) as the top-available option.
Our take: If you see a real need and real value at 30, you don't wait.
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New England Patriots | Pick #31
Akheem Mesidor, EDGE, Miami
Vrabel builds defenses around length and bend off the edge, and Mesidor fits the profile -- a long, active rusher who can set an edge against the run and win with hand technique on passing downs. Gives the Patriots a real rush complement on a front that needed one.
Mesidor is available at 31 in 63% of sims, and fans land on him at 15% of the time. Armchair GMs loudest demand was OT (57%), but with the top tackles usually gone by 31, edge rush (29% of fan picks) is the next lane.
Our take: the age concerns are valid for a team who is building for the future. The Patriots have the ability to win now.
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Seattle Seahawks | Pick #32
Chris Johnson, CB, Auburn
Mike Macdonald's defense lives on man-match coverage, and with Riq Woolen gone to Philadelphia the cornerback room behind Devon Witherspoon is a question mark. Johnson is the kind of long, press-capable corner Macdonald built his Baltimore secondaries around.
Johnson is on the board 95% of the time at pick 32 and is the clear fan consensus at 24%. CB is the runaway position at 40% of SEA sims, and fans have Colton Hood (14%) and Akheem Mesidor (14%) rounding out a secondary-heavy wishlist - both are gone.
Our take: Easiest pick on the board - underrated player, obvious need, scheme-perfect.