One thing to keep in mind with this Over/Under is the incentive to win for the teams that are usually free wins because of the new Draft system.
With that being said I’m taking the over. 😂
2026-27 Orlando Magic Season Preview
Over/Under: 45.0
Optimistic view: The Magic came into last season with massive expectations - Desmond Bane acquisition, potential leaps from Paolo/Franz, and a young roster with multiple pathways to improvement. Unfortunately, from very early on, the vibes, health, and the hoped-for development didn't really happen across the board. Perfect post-hype team heading into 26-27.
Bane was ultimately very solid and should continue to be. Paolo and Franz are entering their age-24 & age-25 seasons, finally approaching their primes. There are plenty of young guys who could take a big step and help out the bench. Shooting and injury luck have been largely terrible. If they flip one of those, they'll probably beat their over/under. If they flip both, they can be a 55+ win team with a ton of momentum heading into the playoffs, similar to what DET did last season.
Maybe the biggest difference between last year and this year, if you're choosing to be hopeful about this team, is Sean Sweeney as head coach. By all accounts, he's one of the most detail-oriented coaches in the league. Also by all accounts, he's very direct and doesn't mince words and is an excellent strategist. That should help revive a culture that had grown tired of Mosley by the end of his tenure.
There's a pathway for Franz Wagner, who was 99th percentile in possession value, 92nd in oTS%, and 92nd in dTS%, to finally cement himself as an All-Star and one of the best two-way players in the NBA. Sweeney and company can put the ball in Franz's hands more, which lets Suggs slide into a more natural role as a disruptor and off-ball shooter, like a younger Caruso. Paolo taking an efficiency and shot-diet leap would be the ultimate cherry on top. If everything hits, they can be a danger to anyone in a stacked Eastern Conference playoffs, even if a Finals run feels very unlikely.
Pessimistic view: This team can't shoot, and their stars aren't efficient enough. To squeeze in guys who can actually score, they have to sacrifice some of their elite defensive identity, and on some nights that leaves them looking like a gray, well-done steak. Paolo stays in love with the midrange fadeaway, and injuries and inaccurate three-point shooting continue to plague Franz. The young guys (Black, Richardson, Penda, Tristan da Silva) show limited development, and established role players like Suggs and Wendell Carter Jr. plateau or regress.
The East is more loaded with talent than ever, and with the new lottery rules, more teams should be trying every night. That takes away some of the try-hand, defense-first wins a team like Orlando has been able to count on. If the front office plays it too safe and gets stuck in no-man's-land at the deadline, with a very expensive team fighting for a play-in spot, jobs at the top could be in danger. A huge roster and staff shake-up might follow if this season doesn't break their way. High-stakes season!