also on bluesky-editor, russia matters project, the belfer center for science & international affairs, harvard kennedy school

cambridge, massachusetts
ivan arreguín-toft retweeted
"House Republicans will continue to hold Hunter Biden’s feet to the fire... no one–not even the president’s son–is above the law.” -Tom Emmer, 1.17.24 "Don Jr is a private citizen and businessman so this unwarranted attack will go nowhere," -Tom Emmer, 9.23.26 @GOPMajorityWhip
265
7,495
21,922
333,798
ivan arreguín-toft retweeted
I'd encourage everyone to read the Danish military intelligence assessment in full, and not rely on excitable social media upsums. Here is the top line: "The Danish Defence Intelligence Service (DDIS) assesses that Russia will intensify its hybrid war by carrying out more frequent attacks against the West and NATO, with greater consequences for the targeted countries than in the past. This could include destructive cyber attacks that cripple critical societal functions as well as sabotage attacks that carry a high risk of casualties." In other words, Russia will continue doing what it's already doing (terrorist attacks against hard and soft targets, cyberoperations), only more so. This is an uncontroversial assessment across Western intelligence services, so far as I've been able to determine. DDIS continues: "At the same time, there is a low but growing risk that Russia will launch a limited military attack against one or several NATO countries bordering Russia....Such a limited military attack could take the form of isolated strikes with long‑range weapons on infrastructure that is vital to the support to Ukraine. In this situation, Russia might then claim that the weapons only struck NATO territory because they were jammed by Ukraine. It could also be a so-called false flag operation, where Russia uses Ukrainian‑made drones to attack a NATO country." The scenario envisaged here (a low but growing risk) is a plausibly deniable conventional attack by Russia. The objective would be twofold. First, to sow panic and confusion in the targeted country or countries, and encourage skepticism of the official government version of what just happened. "Maybe it was the Ukrainians." "Maybe it was an accident." "Maybe no attack took place and the deep state is trying to foment World War III." Thirty seconds on this hellsite should be enough to convince you that counterfactual narratives would be easy enough to amplify, especially in countries with elections forthcoming. A "limited military attack" psychologically would just be a heightened form of "hybrid" war because it's designed to overwhelm and demoralize the population and make its think that supporting Ukraine just isn't worth it since those not at war are now liable to become collateral damage. The second objective of such an attack would be to gauge NATO's response to it -- and this is key bit, because, as DDIS also states: "Russia will likely carry out military attacks only if it assesses that such attacks will not result in a war by triggering a collective NATO military response. However, Russia is likely uncertain about what could trigger such a war. Consequently, there is a risk that Russia assesses that the NATO countries will not respond collectively, especially if Russia assesses that the United States cannot or will not support the European NATO countries in a potential war against Russia." (Italics added.) You wouldn't be wrong to detect a hint of political messaging here. (All intel services deny they do any such thing but they all do.) This is Denmark, a country that just stared down a possible U.S. invasion and annexation of Greenland, which would have meant the disintegration of NATO. Trump has spent his entire second term (and much of his first term) doubting the Inviolability of Article V. His Pentagon has given NATO allies questionnaires to fill out to prove their worthiness as allies, while it undergoes a force posture review with ominous media leaks about what Bridge Colby and his minion might do (25,000 U.S. troops withdrawn, a scuppered U.S. base in Poland, etc.) Now comes a frenzy of intelligence reporting across Europe about a possible Russian attack on NATO, all kickstarted by a CIA briefing delivered to the Poles, Scandinavians and Balts months ago with a warning that they're probably on their own if and when such an attack happens. Never let a good crisis go to waste... Russia isn't sure what would trigger a war with NATO, so how might NATO make it sure? A "limited military attack" can be deterred if Washington telegraphs its intent to enforce Article V in word and deed by stating clearly and repeatedly what would constitute a casus belli in 2026 and, of course, by keeping U.S. troops in Europe.
91
1,451
3,146
265,140
ivan arreguín-toft retweeted
New! Prof @RosariaTaddeo, Professor of Digital Ethics and Defence Technologies at the Oxford Internet Institute, joins Matteo Flora on Tgcom24's "Artificial Intelligence: In Our Midst" to discuss AI and existential risk. Listen here: mediasetinfinity.mediaset.it…
2
6
1,157
ivan arreguín-toft retweeted
It was probably funny for Trump, but it's a sign of weakness from Xi's perspective. Chinese are big on reputation and not embarrassing each other, and to publicly mock a former president makes Trump look like a dumb American to Xi. The Art of the Deal vs The Art of War.
🚨 LMFAO!! Hilarious moment as President Trump ENSURED President Xi saw the Joe Biden AUTOPEN portrait on the Presidential Walk Of Fame You can see him directly point it out Trump wants Xi to know that he was dealing with a clueless PUPPET for 4 years And 47 is displaying that for EVERY world leader to see whenever they visit 🤣 It was embarrassment! Show them all and shame the Democrats!
494
688
11,580
727,504
ivan arreguín-toft retweeted
This is insanity, or worse, treason. I served in the CIA Counter Espionage Group. Israel was our number two espionage threat, stealing secrets from us at every turn. I caught one of these attempted penetrations. If the Senate passes this, every one of them who voted for it should be tried for treason - By the people. Clean out the House and Senate and fumigate the Capitol building.
🚨 Section 219 is on the brink of passing the Senate. It would permanently merge US & Israeli weapons programs, with no way for a future Congress to undo it. Only 6 Senators are fighting it with 30 days left. Demand yours block it now! trackaipac.link/StopSection2…
197
4,165
10,550
179,393
gosh I think we'd all agree but @RossKneeDeep "better candidate than #Trump" is the lowest of low bars, right? better cheat? liar? philanderer? sore loser? bully? grifter? misogynist? NOW you're on solid ground
Nobody in their right mind can convince me that Kamala Harris and Hillary Clinton, both weren't better candidates than Trump. America chose hate.
40
ivan arreguín-toft retweeted
Palantir and Anthropic targeted Minab school, aided by Pentagon stale data and Hegseth psychopathy stripping target review staff. And it was a triple tap, not a double tap. Children killed on first strike. Parents killed by second strike getting surviving children. Rescue workers killed by third strike rushing in after second strike. Unforgivable.
Bloomberg just dropped the most disturbing investigation I have read this year, and every AI builder should read it and take it seriously. On February 28, two Tomahawk missiles hit an elementary school in Minab, a small town in southern Iran. 156 people died. At least 123 were children. The Pentagon knew within hours that it had bombed a school. The school had its own website. It was labeled on Google Maps. You could see the soccer pitch from a satellite view. You could see the brightly painted walls. Any 12-year-old with a browser could tell what the building was. The AI system could not. Inside US Central Command, personnel were using Palantir's Maven Smart System. It is an AI targeting platform running on a $1.3 billion Pentagon contract, and embedded inside it is Anthropic's Claude. On day one of the war, more than 1,000 targets went through it in 24 hours. Work that used to take a team hours per target got compressed into minutes. The satellite imagery Maven was pulling from was seven years old. The site was still tagged in the database as an Islamic Revolutionary Guard facility. The system spat it out as a recommended day-one target. Humans signed off. The first missile flew. Then a second one landed minutes later to hit the people who came to help. Investigators later found that some Central Command staff had assumed Maven would flag stale intelligence for them. It did not. Nobody had told it to. Palantir told Bloomberg the government is responsible for the underlying data. The Pentagon's civilian harm mitigation team, the people whose actual job is to catch a target like this, had been cut back before the war started. This is not AI going rogue. This is the opposite. This is AI doing exactly what it was built to do at exactly the speed it was built to do it. And a school full of little girls got vaporized because the humans in the loop trusted the machine more than they trusted their own eyes. I keep thinking about the version of this story that comes next. What happens when the system is faster. When the target list is not 1,000 in a day but 10,000. When "review" becomes a button the operator has three seconds to hit before the next target loads. When there is no human left slow enough to notice that a soccer pitch is not a helipad. We are not talking about a spam filter mislabeling an email. We are talking about a system that turned a seven-year-old database entry into two cruise missiles landing on children in the middle of a morning class. A UN-backed panel has now called it a potential war crime. In terms of children killed, it is the deadliest American targeting error of the entire 21st century. And according to Bloomberg, some of Defense Secretary Hegseth's own advisors are worried that too much public scrutiny of Maven might slow down its adoption inside the Pentagon. Read that last line again. If you build this stuff, you own what it does. You do not get to hide behind "the government owns the data." The whole pitch of your product is that speed and integration save lives. When it takes them instead, that is also on you. I am not against AI in defense. I am against AI in a hurry. Speed is the entire mechanism that made Minab possible. Every guardrail we already know how to build takes time, and time is exactly what the system was designed to eliminate. So here is the question I have not been able to stop asking, and I genuinely want to know what you think. If a piece of software helped kill 123 children in a single morning while behaving exactly as designed, what does "responsible AI" even mean anymore?
124
4,248
9,387
261,004
“The goal should be efficiency, not speed.” The Blavatnik School’s Jesse Hamilton and Nathan Wood argue that embedding military advisers within industry could help accelerate weapons reviews without compromising safety or core values. 👇 ow.ly/PtGn50ZQTW7
1
2
405
ivan arreguín-toft retweeted
This is illegal Notice the text at the bottom, “paid for by the US government”. Why the hell is the US government and our taxpayers paying for Trump political ad on Fox News?
606
5,570
19,434
283,411
ivan arreguín-toft retweeted
SPECIAL REPORT: The Kremlin used the staged and manufactured 2026 State Duma elections in occupied Ukraine as a de facto referendum on Russian occupation, portraying participation in the election and support for United Russia as evidence of widespread acceptance of Russia’s illegal rule. The Russian occupation apparatus has employed a diverse range of tactics since 2025 to execute the election management toolkit and manufacture United Russia’s parliamentary victory in occupied Ukraine. The Kremlin and Russian occupation officials will also use the election results as evidence of grassroots endorsement of Russia’s increasingly formalized official ideology amongst residents of occupied areas, which will set conditions for the Kremlin to continue to force residents of occupied Ukraine into making sacrifices for the Russian state in defense of this constructed and imposed ideology.
11
90
250
56,486
An hour ago at the UN Security Council Sergey Lavrov appealed for religious freedom in Ukraine.
The Church of the Nativity of St. John the Baptist in Kramatorsk. Bombed by russians yesterday.
132
2,752
12,816
201,842
given that #attribution can still be challenging w #drones, makes you wonder how the #USAF has responded to #Ukraine's #Operation #Spiderweb attacks last year, which destroyed very costly #Russian strategic bombers deep inside Russia
‼️ Russia planned to attack Spain, France, and Italy using Gerbera drones launched from container ships in the Mediterranean. It is believed that this triggered CIA Director Ratcliffe's visit to Moscow last month to warn Russia against this attack.
27
kinda bad optics either way Mike: either they're incompetent (highly likely), or in contempt of the law (equally highly likely, since #DJT considers himself both above the law and a law giver at the same time).
I hope the White House's refusal to let these journalists in is just incompetence and not deliberate defiance of a court order. If the latter, we are in very dangerous waters regarding our democracy.
28
the U.S. uses "undocumented" because it takes due process (you know, a finding of law) to determine whether someone who's entered the country has done so illegally. some % of undocumented immigrants will be determined to have no legitimate path to citizenship, but others will
I’m sick of hearing the word, “undocumented” The word is ILLEGAL.
19
well done, but 3300 kilos is about 1/100th of what gets through every year, and it's already getting to be old hat compared to the newer synthetics.
3,300 KILOS OF FENTANYL SEIZED. Enough poison taken off the streets to kill a quarter BILLION Americans. This FBI — alongside our federal, state, local, and international partners — is attacking these networks from every direction: shutting down precursor pipelines, crushing trafficking operations, taking guns and criminals off our streets, and hunting down the thugs poisoning American communities. And here’s the message to the traffickers: we’re not slowing down. To the Angel Moms and Dads — your stories land with us. Your fight is our fight. There is no piece of information too small. Keep calling law enforcement. Keep giving us the intelligence. We will chase these networks down, dismantle them, and put these criminals behind bars. That’s the mission of this FBI. -DKP 🇺🇸
35
ivan arreguín-toft retweeted
In 1983, the United States ran the "Proud Prophet-83" politico-military global war game to simulate a NATO-Warsaw Pact crisis and ensuing armed conflict. Among the participants were officials from the Joint Staff, combatant commands, CIA, State Department, and (covertly) Secretary of Defense Caspar Weinberger and Joint Chiefs Chairman Gen. John Vessey. Following a few days of simulated hostilies, both sides were exchanging hundreds of nuclear attacks across Europe and other theaters. Those strikes destroyed every major German and Polish city as well as Paris, London, Amsterdam, Rotterdam, Brussels, and additional targets farther afield. The final message conveyed through a hotline estabilished for the purposes of simulation and directed to Moscow read: "May you burn in hell like you are going to burn here." It was sent by SecDef Caspar Weinberger.
15
173
1,129
98,613
ivan arreguín-toft retweeted
Farewell, Ihor Onishenko, 50 y.o. He survived the occupation of Bucha and volunteered to defend Ukraine. He recently gave his life for his country during a battle in Pokrovsk. He leaves behind two sons and his wife. Eternal memory and glory to you, Hero. 🇺🇦
179
582
4,298
28,013
ivan arreguín-toft retweeted
I love it 🤣💙🤣💙
39
113
420
15,595
ivan arreguín-toft retweeted
Just so pathetic. One after the other, Trump nominated people to the most important positions solely because they are sycophantic cultists who refuse to even say he is wrong about something that impacts public health even when they know he is. This is a nightmare for America.
OMG -- under questioning from Hassan, Trump's FDA nominee Heidi Overton refuses to acknowledge that Trump can ever be wrong about anything even after she's confronted with a specific example of something Trump is clearly wrong about
83
1,374
5,290
245,557
THE IRS JUST PERMANENTLY STOPPED LOOKING AT TRUMP'S OWN MONEY Not paused. Not under review. PERMANENTLY ENDED. Acting Attorney General Todd Blanche ordered the IRS to shut down every current and future audit of the Trump family and the Trump business Read that again. The man appointed by Trump just told the agency that taxes Americans to protect Trump's taxes from ever being taxed This came out of Trump v IRS, a lawsuit and settlement so unorthodox that Democrats, Republicans, and the judge overseeing it all raised alarms at the same time. When everyone across the aisle is uneasy, that's not partisanship, that's a five-alarm fire Meanwhile your audit letter still shows up in the mail like clockwork Small business owners get flagged for a $400 deduction. Trump's entire empire gets a permanent hall pass signed by his own hand-picked AG This is a sitting president using the machinery of federal law enforcement to make his own finances legally untouchable, forever, while he's still in office setting the rules for everyone else's taxes There is no oversight committee scarier to Trump than the IRS knocking on his door, so he had his own DOJ nail that door shut Ask yourself who else gets to write themselves out of a tax audit permanently. Nobody. Nobody but Trump The family business gets immunity. The country gets the bill This isn't governance. This is Trump laundering his own tax exposure through the highest law enforcement office in the land Share this before they bury it under the next distraction
213
3,506
5,665
135,264