research @blockworks | crypto venture + ai maxi | prev. @messaricrypto
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tempo's stablecoin supply is up 3.3x in the past month.
> aug 25: $56.4m
> sep 24: $186.8m
> added in 30 days: +$130.4m
@tempo went live on mainnet march 18, a little over 6 months ago, with $4.7m in stablecoins.
~72% of the growth since then came in the last 30 days.
that lag is expected for a chain incubated by @stripe and @paradigm that sells to enterprises and institutions.
integration, compliance, and treasury sign-off take months, so a signed partner doesn't show up onchain immediately.
that's what we're seeing now. the balances from those sales cycles are landing.
still, $186.8m is small in the grand scheme. in comparison:
> Ethereum: $146.7b
> TRON: $91.3b
> Solana: $15.3b
tempo holds ~1.2% of solana's stablecoin supply and ~0.1% of ethereum's.
but those chains weren't built solely for payments. tempo was, with stablecoin-native gas, dedicated payment lanes, and MPP for machine-to-machine payments.
if AI agents end up paying for compute, data, and APIs onchain, that flow needs a chain built for high-frequency, low-cost stablecoin payments.
stablecoin payments has the largest TAM of any crypto product and tempo is a pure-play bet on it.
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i built a model to see how much buying it takes to move $RAIL.
70% of supply is staked behind a 30 day unlock. that leaves ~18.1m RAIL liquid, but most of it never actually trades.
on sept. 18, ~$3.7m of volume over two days moved $RAIL 34.5%, from $2.17 to $2.92. working backwards from that move, only ~3-5m RAIL is really trading. that's 5-9% of supply.
so i ran a few demand shock scenarios through it:
> mid-tier CEX listing ($5m net buying): $3.56-$4.14
> T1 CEX listing, first 30 days ($25m net buying): $5.98-$8.19
> same listing at day 90: $3.52-$4.07
> holder count doubles over 6 months: $3.25-$3.37
the 30 day lock does cut both ways tho. it's why a T1 listing could more than double $RAIL’s price, and it's also why that run fades once stakers can exit.
if $RAIL doubles and 10% of stakers unstake and sell, the model puts it back at $1.94-$3.45.
the good news is the unstake queue is onchain, so you'd see it coming 30 days out.
this is the same thing i wrote about in my valuation report. $RAIL is constrained more by access and liquidity than fundamentals, and this model shows how thin that liquidity really is.
— railgun quant
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can zcash really flip bitcoin?
as someone with a large $BTC position and zero zcash:native, i had to find out.
in 2010, satoshi wrote that a privacy-preserving solution would make a much better implementation of bitcoin. he just couldn't figure out how to prove a coin hadn't been spent without revealing it.
@zcash solved that with ZK proofs. BCH, BSV, and XEC also pitched themselves as upgraded bitcoin, but none of them built privacy into the protocol, and none came close to BTC.
zcash:native went from 0.05% of BTC's market cap at the start of 2025 to 1.49% today.
> ETH: 19.4% of BTC
> BNB: 6.1%
> XRP: 5.7%
> ZEC: 1.49%
a rerating to BNB and XRP levels is roughly a 4x.
the bull case:
> shielded ZEC hit a record 5.2m in may
> privacy coins are still only ~1.2% of the crypto market
> zcash has the same 21m cap and halving schedule as bitcoin
> @grayscale's zcash ETF pulled in $293m of net inflows in its first month
Zcash's newest competitor is shielded bitcoin, a paper from @allocinitxyz that brings private transfers to bitcoin without a soft fork.
more privacy on bitcoin is great, but it's still a paper that needs a trusted setup, and privacy needs a crowd to hide in. zcash already has millions of ZEC shielded.
the bear case:
> only ~29% of ZEC is actually shielded
> ~4% annual inflation, with 20% of block rewards going to dev funds
> a four-year-old counterfeiting bug in its main shielded pool was found in may (patched, no evidence of exploit)
> privacy keeps arriving on bigger chains via tech like @RAILGUN_Project and @zama
it won't flip bitcoin, but it can get a lot closer. i am still sidelined for now.
full breakdown in today's @blockworksres newsletter:
blockworks-research.beehiiv.…
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ethereum:0xe76c6c83af64e4c60245d8c7de953df673a7a33d is up more than 50% in the past week, now trading around $2.90.
since oct. of last year, it has traded within four clear channels:
> $1.00-$2.00
> $2.00-$3.20
> $3.20-$4.30
> $4.30-$5.67 (nov. 7, '25 ATH)
let's recap what's driving the move and what comes next:
1) the recent run is zcash:native beta. zcash:native is up 87% in the past month. when zcash:native runs, the privacy narrative comes back on the timeline and high-quality privacy protocols like ethereum:0xe76c6c83af64e4c60245d8c7de953df673a7a33d get a bid.
ethereum:0xe76c6c83af64e4c60245d8c7de953df673a7a33d ran 78% from $2.00 to $3.55 purely as a follow-on bid from zcash:native.
2) i expect ethereum:0xe76c6c83af64e4c60245d8c7de953df673a7a33d to keep trading within the four channels until Kohaku is officially live. that means buying opportunities will keep coming, and the time to load up the truck is between $1.00 and $2.00.
3) real work on Kohaku is being done:
> aug. 26: @ethereumfndn dev @kassandraETH pushed v0.0.4 of kohaku-cli, saying it "made UX for both Railgun and Tornado Cash much better, targeting integrating these protocol as part of your 'everyday' wallet workflow"
> sept. 9: @ethereumfndn hosted a livestream showcasing "the Kohaku CLI, how it makes Ethereum privacy tools easier to use, and demoing private transactions across Railgun, Tornado Cash, and more"
> sept. 15: @Jordan_Enev, engineer at @ambire, posted a demo: "Railgun privacy achieved internally in ambire, thanks to Kohaku SDK"
4) a single @VitalikButerin post took @Trueo_ from a $2m to an $18m mcap. once Kohaku goes live and Vitalik and the rest of the Ethereum crew start bull posting ethereum:0xe76c6c83af64e4c60245d8c7de953df673a7a33d, we easily break ATHs.
5) RAILGUN is doing well regardless of Kohaku:
> 30d volume: ~$144m
> TVL: $102.3m (highest since january)
> staked: 70% of circulating supply
> 30d revenue: $360k
> annualized revenue: ~$4.3m
> mcap: $177m
> mcap / annualized revenue: ~41x
6) RAILGUN is privacy tooling with no dedicated frontend. the current wallets and frontends are niche, and the tech is hard for the average crypto user to access.
this was the basis of the valuation report i put out at the beginning of the year. once Kohaku brings distribution and ease of access, RAILGUN's addressable market expands exponentially. that gets you to my base case intrinsic value of $6.26, more than 2x from here.
7) railgun quant back in business.
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Jake Koch-Gallup retweeted
NEW: Introducing Agentic Detection, asset monitoring built for the AI era.
Following our acquisition of Messari, we are excited to release our first major product expansion.
Agentic Detection brings real-time alerts to Blockworks Monitoring without waiting for analyst review. Teams get broader coverage of the assets they follow, with findings in seconds instead of minutes.
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arc mainnet is not even public yet & tokens are already going crazy.
@Arguspad is at $28M mcap, a 10x in the past 24 hours.
@TollyLabs is at $16M mcap, a 9x in the past 24 hours.
@Longdotsupply is at to $11M mcap, a 3x in the past 24 hours.
tomorrow will be wild. strap in.
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$RAIL stakers are earning 21.2% right now. but fees only support about half of that yield.
in july, the DAO doubled the biweekly payout from 2.00% to 4.20% of treasury balances.
> rewards per period: ~$50k -> ~$250k
> annualized distributions: ~$6.5m
> annualized revenue (trailing 90d): ~$3.5m
distributions are running at nearly 2x fee generation, and 2026 fees are tracking $3.9m against $5.0m last year.
the gap is being funded by reserves the treasury already held, plus 2.5m newly minted $RAIL.
supply went from 57.5m -> 60m, so existing holders took 4.3% dilution to fund a faster payout.
as the balance normalizes, yield should settle closer to 11%.
now there is another relevant update.
voting began today on a proposal that would deploy @RAILGUN_Project to @base, with ethereum stakers controlling the proxy and collecting its fees.
arbitrum gives a useful comparsion:
> Ethereum: $84m shielded, 0.021% of bridged value
> Arbitrum: $3.2m shielded, 0.019%
apply that rate to @base and you get ~$3m.
base has more stablecoin liquidity and substantially more users, so the opportunity is larger.
but a new chain does not solve the main bottleneck...distribution does.
no mainstream production wallet currently exposes RAILGUN to users.
kohaku will change that by putting shielded balances inside mainstream wallets, but the integration is still early.
railtardio.
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a little over a month ago i wrote that $CARDS
had outrun @Collector_Crypt's actual growth.
the token was up 123% over 30 days against 74% growth in gacha spending.
it traded at $0.31 and is now $0.15, down 52%.
this drawdown has inverted the original setup. the token is back at its late may price while the underlying business is materially larger.
that rotation created a useful like-for-like comparison. when $CARDS last traded at $0.15 in late may, the platform was generating:
> daily gacha spend: $3.6M → $5.1M
> daily net revenue: $199K → $278K
> daily active users: 506 → 876
at the same token price today it generates 42% more spend, 40% more revenue, and has almost double the users.
what changed was attention, not fundamentals. gacha was the june trade, then @RobinhoodApp launched its chain on july 1 and capital rotated to the next thing.
the growth has not continued in a straight line. july average daily spend fell 27% from $7.0M to $5.1M, and spend per active user fell 40% to $5,800. even after that pullback, july ran 80% above april and daily active users reached a monthly record.
at $316M FDV and ~$100M annualized net revenue, $CARDS trades at 3.2x annualized revenue. that multiple sits well below comparable revenue-generating tokens:
> $HYPE: 117.5x
> $UNI: 83.1x
> $AAVE: 35.0x
> $JUP: 26.3x
the discount is substantial, but there is a reason for it. only 388.5M of the 2B supply is circulating. the other 81% creates a dilution overhang that can weigh on the token even if the app's performance stays strong.
value accrual is also still limited. over the last 30 days @Collector_Crypt spent ~$290K buying back $CARDS while users bought $1.7M of CARDS-denominated packs. both create demand, but buybacks are discretionary and neither gives holders a claim on revenue.
the team says it prioritizes the token over its equity and looks to be waiting on regulatory clarity before formalizing anything, so explicit accrual may end up tied to the CLARITY act. but remember that management preference is not an enforceable economic right.
$CARDS is a better setup than it was five weeks ago. the token fell 52% while the underlying business kept growing.
that divergence creates valuation upside, but the rerating case still depends on converting protocol growth into durable tokenholder value.
until that link is stronger, $CARDS remains a cheap token attached to a growing business rather than a clear claim on its economics.
$CARDS has repriced much faster than actual @Collector_Crypt growth.
$CARDS is up 123% over the past 30 days and 667% over 90 days.
gacha spending grew 74% and 153% over the same timeframes.
this rerating may be justified if token value accrual follows.
today, however, the link from app growth to tokenholder returns is unclear.
i'd have a much easier time going all-in on $CARDS if value capture was actually explicit (like with $RAIL).
honestly though this is a much bigger crypto problem:
> tokenholders are told they're buying exposure to network growth.
> in reality, they're buying exposure to the *possibility* that network growth benefits the token.
> meanwhile, equity holders benefit by default.
to me that feels super backwards, and something we need to fix asap.
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wall street just went onchain.
this past wednesday, @The_DTCC ran its first live production trades of tokenized securities. these were real trades on production infra instead of being in a test sandbox.
let's break down why this matters:
1) who is @The_DTCC and why should you care?
DTCC sits at the center of U.S. custody and settlement. its depository (DTC) holds over $114 trillion in securities.
across its subsidiaries, it processed $4.7 quadrillion in transactions last year.
2) who participated?
30+ firms, including the largest institutions in finance.
> JPMorgan: $5T in assets
> Vanguard: $12T in aum
> BlackRock: $15T in aum
> NYSE: $44T in listed securities
@jpmorgan converted part of its @InvescoUS QQQ holdings to tokenized form.
@GoldmanSachs, @Vanguard_Group, @BlackRock, @Nasdaq, and @NYSE all took part, alongside crypto projects like @chainlink, @circle, and @OndoFinance.
that is asset managers, exchanges, market makers, and crypto infra all participating in the same trial.
3) what makes this different from every other tokenization pilot?
these are the same legal securities the DTCC already custodies, not synthetic wrappers pointing at an asset held somewhere else.
the tokens carry the same rights, protections, and ownership as the originals.
it also settled across two networks at once:
> HyperLedger Besu (DTCC's private chain)
> @CantonNetwork
running on both means they aren't dependent on just one settlement layer.
4) what does this mean for crypto-native RWAs?
the onchain RWA market (excluding stablecoins) is now ~$35B, up almost 500% since the start of 2025.
that growth happened outside traditional infra. Ondo, Securitize, and BlackRock's BUIDL brought treasuries onto public chains that settle 24/7 and plug into DeFi.
DTCC now offers a different path where firms can tokenize the same securities already sitting at the depository without leaving existing market structure.
5) does this kill public chains for RWA?
i don't think so. @circle and @OndoFinance were both in the working group that designed the service, and DTCC supporting Canton alongside its own chain suggests the goal is interoperability.
DTCC's digital assets lead framed it as extending trusted market infra into tokenized markets, not replacing it.
6) the caveats
> this was only controlled rollout. the full tokenization service doesn't launch until october.
> it rests on a december 2025 SEC no-action letter, not a permanent framework. a technical failure or regulatory shift could change the terms.
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ladies and gents, my first order of business at @Blockworks... creating a highly-curated RAILGUN data dashboard.
this is one of the most detailed @RAILGUN_Project dashboards out there, covering 20+ metrics.
i included data points that are not found anywhere else, such as revenue capture rate, revenue multiple, RAIL staking yield, and more.
here are a few examples of current data (as of july 8):
> cumulative volume: $5.28B
> june monthly revenue: $288.2K
> june revenue capture rate: 3.04%
> june revenue multiple: 41.3x
> circulating supply staked: 71.55%
> staking yield: 4.32%
you can check out the dashboard here: blockworks.com/analytics/rai…
railgun quant back in business 🫡
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open USD has made me rethink part of my circle vs. arc thesis.
historically, stablecoin issuers kept most of the reserve income and paid distributors a fee.
open USD flips that model.
partners receive all of the reserve earnings after costs, while the issuer provides the infrastructure.
this means value will shift to wallets, exchanges, banks, and payment providers that bring users onchain.
that puts incredible pressure on @circle’s core business model.
and, in turn, makes products like CCTP, arc, mint, and payments much more important to the long-term investment case than reserve income alone.
that’s something i underestimated in my original circle vs. arc thesis.
i also don’t think this is a race to zero.
@tether is probably the best counterexample.
USDT’s moat comes from the deepest liquidity, broadest exchange integrations, and years of network effects across crypto.
that’s incredibly difficult to replicate.
to me, the biggest takeaway is:
> the stablecoin profit pool is getting reallocated and open usd is shifting it toward distribution.
Introducing Open USD: a stablecoin built for the internet economy, designed by the businesses growing it.
joinopenstandard.com/blog/in…
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$CARDS has repriced much faster than actual @Collector_Crypt growth.
$CARDS is up 123% over the past 30 days and 667% over 90 days.
gacha spending grew 74% and 153% over the same timeframes.
this rerating may be justified if token value accrual follows.
today, however, the link from app growth to tokenholder returns is unclear.
i'd have a much easier time going all-in on $CARDS if value capture was actually explicit (like with $RAIL).
honestly though this is a much bigger crypto problem:
> tokenholders are told they're buying exposure to network growth.
> in reality, they're buying exposure to the *possibility* that network growth benefits the token.
> meanwhile, equity holders benefit by default.
to me that feels super backwards, and something we need to fix asap.
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excited to share that today is my first day at @Blockworks as a Senior Research Analyst.
following Blockworks' acquisition of @MessariCrypto, i'm grateful for the opportunity to continue covering the crypto industry and the sectors I've spent the past several years researching. i’ll be publishing research on L1s, token valuations, crypto venture, market structure, and more.
i’m a crypto permabull and proud to join a team focused on bringing greater transparency and trust to onchain markets.
looking forward to what's ahead. onwards.
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Jake Koch-Gallup retweeted
🚨NEW ATH FOR ONCHAIN GACHAS🚨
After setting ATHs in spend volume in both March ($148.6M) and April ($184.0M), the sector set another ATH in May at $227.6 million (24% MoM growth)!
The top 7 TCG platforms by May spend:
1) @Collector_Crypt - $90.5M
2) @Courtyard_io - $58.8M
3) @phygitals - $56.1M
4) @Beezie - $11.8M
5) @renaissxyz - $5.4M
6) @mnstr - $3.2M
7) @gacha_game_ - $1.9M
Onchain gachas are going vertical!
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this is exactly why crypto regulation matters.
if we want tokenholders to capture the value created by businesses, teams need clearer rules around buybacks, revenue sharing, and other value accrual mechanisms.
right now, a lot of teams are operating in a gray area.
the CLARITY Act, for example, would provide a framework for tokens to avoid being treated as securities, giving teams more flexibility to align tokenholder value with business performance.
Ive said this in discord and on podcasts a few times. We neither confirm nor deny buybacks, and we will only disclose buybacks after the fact. We believe if there were a sandbox with regulatory clarity that $cards would be a great platform to demonstrate how a strong FCF company in crypto can return value to holders.
There are SEC things involved here unfortunately; there are no promises being made, and for meow, the token is worthless and for entertainment purposes only.
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hard not to be bullish @Collector_Crypt.
$7.4m revenue over the last 30d, $90m annualized revenue, and only $345m FDV.
that is 3.8x FDV / annualized revenue for one of the fastest-growing, breakout consumer apps.
but the issue is token value capture.
there is treasury reinvestment and a lot of discussion around solana:CARDSccUMFKoPRZxt5vt3ksUbxEFEcnZ3H2pd3dKxYjp alignment, but no mechanism for revenue distribution, structural buybacks, or burns.
so until value accrual is made explicit, the app can win and solana:CARDSccUMFKoPRZxt5vt3ksUbxEFEcnZ3H2pd3dKxYjp can still be the wrong trade.
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Jake Koch-Gallup retweeted
There are only two ways to get liquid exposure to onchain collectibles.
One is solana:CARDSccUMFKoPRZxt5vt3ksUbxEFEcnZ3H2pd3dKxYjp and trades at $383M FDV.
The other is solana:DLGRpmkMGr7J4KD1xR5x2XjaGeQH64PLFQkyxNNSpump and trades at $3M FDV.
Both are good buys IMO, but r/r favors TCG.
@Pumpfun backing for @collectdotrip is a game changer, would not fade them being able to tap into PF’s distribution.
solana:DLGRpmkMGr7J4KD1xR5x2XjaGeQH64PLFQkyxNNSpump trading below $2M FDV after it won the @Pumpfun BiP Hackathon doesn’t make any sense to me.
Firmly believe this is best liquid r/r to Pokémon/onchain TCG at current valuations.
Winning the BiP Hackathon significantly derisks TCG as @collectdotrip now can:
- Tap directly into PF’s distribution
- Access additional funding sources (see @cademarket funding rounds post-hackathon win)
- likely align token holders and equity holders through an ACE round (3 other BiP Hackathon winners have done so).
Also, as a cherry on top, the actual market cap (~$1.4M) is significantly less as the team controls >25% of supply.
Team is very sharp and has built out a great product to date. If you want to give the platform a shot, feel free to sign up using my referral link and I’ll even gift you a free Pokémon pack for doing so:
collect.rip/r/ajc
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Jake Koch-Gallup retweeted
.@Circle ($CRCL) is a financial tech company providing stablecoin infrastructure for USDC.
Stablecoins have clear product-market fit in crypto, but not all parts of the stablecoin stack capture value equally.
Join @immutablejacob & @AvgJoesCrypto for our CRCL vs ARC webinar, where we’ll assess the value and potential of Circle’s stock and token.
After this session, you’ll leave with an understanding of how to compare stablecoin balance exposure against stablecoin velocity exposure.
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ethereum:0xe76c6c83af64e4c60245d8c7de953df673a7a33d just got 3x perp listings from @Aster_DEX and @Lighter_xyz.
this is exactly what i wrote about in my valuation report:
RAIL’s market structure has been constrained more by access and liquidity than fundamentals.
the protocol already generates recurring revenue, but the market still hasn’t fully repriced it because participation remains limited.
perps are the first step.
spot listings on T1 CEXs like Kraken, Coinbase, and Binance would deepen liquidity, expand participation, and improve price discovery.
raillions.
ethereum:0xe76c6c83af64e4c60245d8c7de953df673a7a33d is up more than 50% today.
but it's still only trading at $2.40.
in my ethereum:0xe76c6c83af64e4c60245d8c7de953df673a7a33d valuation report published a few months back, i calculated an intrinsic value of $6.26 in the base case.
that means ethereum:0xe76c6c83af64e4c60245d8c7de953df673a7a33d's true value is an easy 3x from here.
raillions.
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ethereum:0xe76c6c83af64e4c60245d8c7de953df673a7a33d is up more than 50% today.
but it's still only trading at $2.40.
in my ethereum:0xe76c6c83af64e4c60245d8c7de953df673a7a33d valuation report published a few months back, i calculated an intrinsic value of $6.26 in the base case.
that means ethereum:0xe76c6c83af64e4c60245d8c7de953df673a7a33d's true value is an easy 3x from here.
raillions.
the monster has been unleashed. the $RAIL valuation report is live.
40 pages, 40 minute read.
messari.io/report/a-valuatio…
it is an enterprise report, so only @MessariCrypto enterprise clients have access. HOWEVER, let's break down the key points:
1) what is RAILGUN?
@RAILGUN_Project is onchain ZK privacy infra for EVM networks. it lets users transact on Ethereum, Arbitrum, Polygon, and BNB Chain without revealing wallet identity, balances, or transaction intent.
the protocol charges a 0.25% fee when assets enter or exit the privacy set (shield/unshield). all fees accrue onchain to the DAO treasury.
2% of the treasury is distributed to $RAIL stakers every two weeks, creating a direct link between usage, treasury growth, and staker cash flows.
2) how does RAILGUN work?
railgun lets users move assets from public ERC-20 balances into a shared private pool (shielding), then transact from that pool without revealing wallet identity, balances, or intent.
assets inside the pool aren’t account balances. they’re represented as private notes, proven valid with ZK proofs instead of being publicly readable onchain.
users keep their normal 0x address, but also generate a private railgun address (0zk…). private transactions are built in-wallet, proven locally, then executed onchain with no link back to the public wallet.
railgun is infrastructure, not a consumer wallet. wallets and apps integrate the railgun contracts and SDK to support private balances and private smart contract execution.
this design keeps users on Ethereum’s existing liquidity and apps, while adding privacy at the settlement layer.
3) what does railgun adoption and revenue look like?
railgun processed $2b in combined shield/unshield volume in 2025. this generated the protocol $5M.
importantly, this revenue is earned without emissions, liquidity incentives, or subsidized activity. users are paying real fees for privacy.
railgun captures nearly 5% of its TVL as revenue, materially higher than most DeFi infra protocols, which typically capture around 0.3-3%.
this reflects the transactional nature of privacy flows as railgun monetizes capital movement, not passive liquidity.
4) what is the Kohaku Wallet SDK and why does it matter for RAILGUN?
kohaku is an open-source wallet privacy SDK being developed under the @ethereumfndn. its goal is to make privacy native at the wallet layer, not a separate opt-in tool.
instead of users going out of their way to use a privacy protocol, wallets can integrate Kohaku and offer private balances and private transactions directly in normal wallet flows.
railgun is already integrated into Kohaku. that means railgun becomes part of default wallet transaction flows.
once Kohaku goes live and tier-1 wallets (like @MetaMask) start integrating it, railgun’s addressable market expands from users who actively seek privacy to a massive share of Ethereum’s wallet-reachable capital.
that shift, from niche tooling to default wallet infra, is the core driver behind the upside scenarios in my valuation.
5) how exactly did I value $RAIL?
i start with Ethereum’s capital base (ETH market cap + stablecoins), model how much of it migrates into RAILGUN’s privacy set over time, and translate that into revenue thru a declining capture rate.
revenue minus operating expenses = operating cash flow. ~52% gets paid to stakers, the rest accumulates in the DAO treasury, and i value both pieces (cash flows + treasury) to arrive at intrinsic $RAIL per token.
the base case intrinsic value provides a clean and defensible anchor for what $RAIL should be worth if adoption plays out as modeled.
$RAIL's current price sits at a significant discount to that base case.
6) disclaimer: i hold $RAIL. this report is meant for informational purposes only. It is not meant to serve as investment advice.
7) railtardio.
- railgun quant
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