$ENA supply picture ahead of the full investor unlock on October 5. First, how much is there left in insider hands? @inflecta_io tracks ~1.33B $ENA, just under 9%, in investor wallets & distribution contracts. For context, over the last year, investors sent 1.06B ENA (80% of that) to trading venues, before factoring in any treasury/other insider distributions. Ethena's offer to buy out investors doesn't necessarily mean the overhang was fully cleared - since August 1st, there has been about 180M $ENA of investor-linked distributions. So it's continuing to be cleared ahead of the event. Now, who owns most of this investor allocation? The top three VCs: @yzilabs, @DragonflyVC, @strobefund hold approximately 42% of it – 560M $ENA – and haven't sold any ENA since 2025, although some participated in an in-kind @stablecoin_x PIPE. These funds are almost certainly indifferent to this unlock. It’s not just the top three. The vast majority hold substantial liquid ENA alongside their locked allocations. October 5 isn’t their first opportunity to sell. Finally, there has been some pre-positioning ahead of the news. Arthur Hayes sold his unvested ENA to Ethena and bought liquid. At least two other funds bought on the market about a month before the news broke, and some of it is being distributed now. Overall, I don't see how unlock itself can be non-bullish, provided the market holds. $ENA has had a generational distribution over the past year. Those wanting a way out were offered a buyout by the Ethena team, followed by an opportunity to exit at twice that price in the market. Most of the remaining holders hold enough unlocked supply to make the unlock irrelevant. You can track the flows as they happen at inflecta.io

Staking queue exits started to show up onchain. Two wallets withdrew 20M $ZAMA / $1.7M and sent to Binance within minutes. Meanwhile, Korean venues flows turned negative. More liquid supply, less of the bid that drove the rally. Track: inflecta.io/zama

3/ Staking adds another layer. About 2.35B $ZAMA sits in staking contracts, almost the entire reported 2.46B circulating supply. Another ~790M is on exchanges and in cZAMA, meaning the treasury is being staked too. Inflation funds the rewards: ~550M ZAMA at current rates, ~$52M at today's prices (~20% of circ. supply) As of now, ~174M ZAMA ($16.6M) is queued for exit, which has a seven-day cooldown.