in terms of LONG and $AI specifically, don't expect a V reversal.
onchain is still a hot ball of money and hype cycles between metas/narratives are still at play.
onchain is going to bottom faster than the rest of the market - they were also the first to sell off heavily.
you shouldn't be asking yourself whether this is the pico bottom or not, you should really be asking yourself if there has been a narrative violation that invalidates the thesis behind LONG.
i think natan could ship 100 features right now and yet price could drift lower.
similarly to buying bear market CEX coins (ZRO, LIT, and others), buying great onchain bags while they base out is going to reward heavily once real PVE comes.
check out both the streams that nate was on today and yesterday and make your decision.
there's no rush to bid just as there's no point in knife catching on perps.
just accumulate if you think there's value at the lows and watch the thesis play out.
0.10 to me is pretty solid value if we get it.
$AI $MOO L()NG.
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clear break of structure on strong alts
zec, near, lit
good entries will come
waiting.
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9
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still see things the exact same way
alts bleeding against btc is actually a very good thing
strong alts are cooling off while our new rotations are holding very strongly
$ZEC / $LIT / $NEAR -> $BP $ZRO
bull market.
kinda how I see things right now.
everyone is getting very bearish, granted this is one of the first scarier red days we've gotten in weeks combined with everyone staring at the oil and bond charts.
the strongest performers like zec and lit are showing triple impulse structures (bearish) which isn't great for the rest of the market.
but they've also been up only from the bottom.
zooming out the path of least resistance seems like they bleed another 10-20% and consolidate while the rest of the market rotates slowly into other things (you already know where my bets are).
markets kinda showed their hand on what to bid.
already started to buy some more stuff.
if you think we're in a bull market these dips are for buying.
if you think we're still in a bear this was probably the top.
$BTC
6
108
15,525
these both look good.
marscoin - nance showed their hand
backpack - $BP front running a $1 retest
both higher.
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2
70
8,609
when you're bored give this a watch on 2x speed
some thoughts on trading, the markets, and things that i've been looking at over the past few weeks
will try to make these like once a month for ya'll
:)
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12
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this was picture perfect last night on $ZRO
spot bid relentless on the coin right now while perps were closing out
consolidate, higher.
2
3
97
11,784
took some profit but will reload the full clip at ~0.90.
and then consolidate this at $1 for price discovery.
$BP 🎒
5
2
76
9,203
kinda how I see things right now.
everyone is getting very bearish, granted this is one of the first scarier red days we've gotten in weeks combined with everyone staring at the oil and bond charts.
the strongest performers like zec and lit are showing triple impulse structures (bearish) which isn't great for the rest of the market.
but they've also been up only from the bottom.
zooming out the path of least resistance seems like they bleed another 10-20% and consolidate while the rest of the market rotates slowly into other things (you already know where my bets are).
markets kinda showed their hand on what to bid.
already started to buy some more stuff.
if you think we're in a bull market these dips are for buying.
if you think we're still in a bear this was probably the top.
$BTC
15
7
251
46,408
if you've been with me for a bit you know this is one of my favorite setups.
triple impulse hard to fade.
just a bit of a cool down is all.
$ZEC
stay safe on the lev
it's the weekend so PA can't be entirely trusted
but this doesn't look too pretty
nothing wrong with a swipe down before higher
17
6
187
26,802
this structure is one of my favorites.
took some chop to play out but clear as day.
feels like the pain is over soon so closing out the short here.
$LIT
it's not that I think $LIT has topped forever.
it's just not as appealing to long this type of structure.
i'll wait for a bit (or chase if structure changes).
2
106
14,809
memefi seems like it's going to rally incredibly hard soon
all your fud on mechanics and flywheels feel short sighted in the face of the largest tailwind for crypto - onboarding RWAs onchain
the marscoin x binance support is pure signal that this meta is only going to get hotter and exchanges WILL want to support the meta
$marscoin is once again binance's kingmaker play
$ai / $moo are L()NG kingmaker plays on robinhood chain
$bp is the infra play for RWAs and does the most stock trading volume onchain (also a bet on solana)
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6
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focus this week
sol as a strong major
near with a continuous spot bid
ena and zro as emerging market bids
bp as the highest conviction tokenization bid
ai/moo as robinhood chain bets - event is this week which I don't expect too much from but they've been consolidating and ppl have been capitulating
cutting weaker conviction bets early this week.
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8
214
16,049
stay safe on the lev
it's the weekend so PA can't be entirely trusted
but this doesn't look too pretty
nothing wrong with a swipe down before higher
5
2
141
60,594
ok now let's zoom out
hottest narrative = stablecoins x equities (basis)
bought back seed investors bags
supply overhang not rly an issue now
does generate revenue
just enabled basis trade w equity perps (binance)
flipped the largest resistance level (0.20)
team worked incredibly hard during the bear
deviation
and no, i am not an investor i just appreciate good projects and nice charts.
$ENA
nice consolidation above the 10/10 wick for $ENA
bought back seed investors bags
no supply overhang
does generate revenue
token aligned
stablecoin narrative
starting to buy some here.
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42,780
it's not that I think $LIT has topped forever.
it's just not as appealing to long this type of structure.
i'll wait for a bit (or chase if structure changes).
11
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31,811
take ten minutes and read this and then look at the chart and raise your targets.
this is one of the most well-written thesis I've read in years.
220M marketcap right now.
frictionless.capital/article…
Backpack, the Engine for Internet Capital Markets and Tokenization.
frictionless.capital/article…
A thesis piece on how the United States is in the process of exporting its capital markets in the same way the dollar was tokenized with stablecoins and distributed over the Internet.
10
18
236
35,610
it's hilarious because every time we get this setup OI nukes down to levels when we were at ~$550
the wall of worry.
$ZEC
8
6
200
27,673
and here we are.
$MORPHO is still one of the best bets to make if you believe the crypto markets have matured and great products will continue to win.
more updates to come.
morpho is a bit interesting as a comp to aave
curated pools seem better for institutions and the team is very aligned (having worked w them in the past) on winning deals and partnerships (coinbase, etc.)
aave seems too big and slow to make moves like these
only thing is the ui is absolutely a nightmare and reminds me of how many wrapped usdcs there were before this cycle
make the UI more intuitive to understand, onboard more tvl, more institutions, etc
6
1
59
11,232
gg @0x_Leo_
up 36% since the stream alone.
ethereum:0x7cf9a80db3b29ee8efe3710aadb7b95270572d47
6
3
95
8,299
ahead of the curve.
that bottom deviation is very nice and any consolidation below $2 is probably decent.
every large perp dex (hl and lighter) are turning into infra plays by onboarding separate books for clients like Robinhood, Kraken, etc.
layerzero is doing the same with a headless approach but their tech is 10x faster than anything on the market so far.
most people will stay sidelined because they think interop is the main focus - it's not; it's all about markets now.
godspeed.
$ZRO
have been pretty vocal about ZRO in the past
nothing about the thesis has changed
technically: usd and btc pairs have filled their initial exchange wicks and you want these levels to be the bottom
fundamentally: all value will accrue to ZRO the token itself. think the market is pricing ZRO as still just interop but forgetting that they purpose built a chain to compete w the largest exchanges in the world (HL currently does 200k tps, Zero will do 2m+). institutions will use Zero and the team's focus on payments + capital markets shows the direction they're heading.
two types of setups that I enjoy: accumulation -> rips, trending charts
granted this is the bottom, it's time for accumulation.
6
6
137
20,898
10Y this..10Y that...
below 80k and a lot more ranging to do.
else nothing to worry about.
cautiously bullish.
BTC.
7
5
154
26,346
robinhood chain round 2 coming soon.
lots of capitulation the past few days for the green chain.
it is very clear that both solana and rh chain will win.
book it.
30
24
454
23,803
ball game.
memory is back on the table.
the 4h consolidation and straddling looks incredibly bullish now and after a 40-50% retrace, these look good to send into q4.
$SNDK $MU
SNDK and the 4h trend are still playing ball
don't think the memory trade is over, and the longer we consolidate here the more i'm convinced we're gearing up for the next few legs.
memory $moo.
15
87
12,200
the more I look at $META ...the better it looks on every timeframe.
3d
1w
1mo
3mo
any consolidation here is for buying imo.
4
67
6,415
winners will win.
two weeks later, up another 2x and it looks stronger than ever.
$VVV to triple digits.
I reckon $VVV will have a nice next few weeks of price discovery.
the AI cex coin trade is starting to shape up: tao, vvv, chip
this was the winner before, betting on continuation here
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2
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16,677
the hardest thing i'm learning with onchain is holding through pain and time cost because invalidations here are less on TA but more on narrative violations.
i've seen last cycle charts nuke 40% in a day and recover 2-3x within weeks and charts bleed 90% and become billion dollar runners by the end of the cycle.
seeing a lot of people who capitulated on $AI and $MOO because the charts looked bad on an illiquid weekend (agreed they looked a bit fried earlier, not anymore) when nothing about the long term vision/thesis changed at all.
as mostly a perps trader who uses TA a lot more for swings and execution, this is a skill I've been forcing myself to learn in order to be profitable onchain, and it is hard. i don't blame anyone who capitulated but your bags are in safer hands now.
i still have not been more convicted that THE best opportunities will be positioning for where the future flows will go when the rwa tokenization thesis plays out over the next 6-18 months.
currently this is just on robinhood chain and solana and the barbell is simple L()NG (ai, moo, etc.) <> backpack ( $BP ) with $stonk being the beneficiary of bp.
let's win again this cycle, buy good projects and hold for dear life.
GN.
🐮
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had this setup on $ENA few weeks ago, completely forgot.
added like 1B TVL very quickly recently and seems like they're ready to fire some bullets soon.
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10
155
43,539
it's also pretty crazy to see how stonkfun has been performing very well against pons over the past 4 weeks
the bet here is clear - token pairing experiments are the thing
17
2,127
my main focus this onchain cycle is on tokenization and fun experiments with token pairings
robinhood chain is going to be the main focus with the L()NG ecosystem being the strongest and highest conviction bet to make as TVL scales and volumes increase 100x over the next year
while that consolidates after a monstrous run, my second highest conviction bet is on solana giving their shot at it as well
less interested in typical launchpads like pump/pons (both have token pairing launches available but focus on generic launches)
and more focused on specific protocols dedicated to the craft - L()NG (AI/MOO) + stonkfun
decent barbell - $ai/ $moo/ long coins <> solana:6GmAFSYs4gk3FDao5FzzySQpPZaWsa4rUJHacpMpUNgx
let's ball.
14
9
135
9,257
our korean brethren aped so hard and wicked it to 1.21 on upbit.
i guess we now have the target set for $drv.
s/o @0x_Leo_ for forcing me to bid this earlier today.
not an options trader but a bunch of folks who trade options have told me that derive has been getting very good compared to even just a year ago
and the chart looks absolutely beautiful
consolidate at the highs and initiate price discovery
$drv
7
3
119
17,354
ngl could see it, ct doesn't really mess with it
have a moonbag in case it guns
$useless
12
8
215
49,151
SNDK and the 4h trend are still playing ball
don't think the memory trade is over, and the longer we consolidate here the more i'm convinced we're gearing up for the next few legs.
memory $moo.
SNDK could be reclaiming the 4h trend nicely
below 1400 and it's kinda heavy and could just chop for much much longer
but if we keep straddling higher here think the trade might be back on
🐮
3
70
19,746