Most people guess. We don’t. Prediction Markets | Results speak
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Making foremost prediction on AFCON while it's not even on the Markets
Yo @PolymarketSport, @Polymarket what's up?
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IAS retweeted
Zero fees continue on football markets.
5 college football games today. First kickoff at 4:00 PM ET.
Today’s full schedule 👇
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$100. $2,700. $85,000.
Three numbers that have been centering the market this week.
$100 — $HYPE pushed as high as $98.04 on September 23, putting the psychological $100 level directly in focus.
Hyperliquid's rising trading activity and buyback activity have accompanied the move.
$2,700 — ETH broke above the $2,661 resistance level highlighted by Reuters, putting $2,700 back among the market's key levels to watch.
$85,000 — BTC's September recovery has brought the $85K level back into focus, although it went above $86,979 on September 21.
But what stands out is how quickly round numbers become prediction questions.
Will HYPE cross $100?
Will ETH reach $2,700?
Will BTC break $88,000?
IAS market observation from this week.
What's yours?
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PREDICTION MARKETS IS THE FUTURE OF TRADING
The future is uncertain.
Markets help us measure that uncertainty.
Every day, people form expectations about what comes next.
Will a trend continue?
Will an event happen?
Will a market move?
Thread 🧵:
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But expectations alone are just opinions.
The missing piece is probability.
How confident are you?
Probability transforms a simple belief into a measurable forecast.
A 70% probability does not mean certainty.
It means:
“Based on current information, this outcome has a higher likelihood than the alternatives.”
This is the foundation of prediction markets.
Instead of asking:
“Do you think this will happen?”
Prediction markets ask:
“What probability would you assign to this outcome?”
As participants trade, information enters the market.
New data appears.
Beliefs change.
Prices adjust.
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The result?
A continuously updated signal of what the market expects.
Prediction markets are not about knowing the future.
They are about understanding uncertainty, measuring expectations, and discovering information.
So the real question is:
Can we predict the future perfectly?
Probably not.
But can we build better systems for understanding what the world believes about the future?
That is where prediction markets begin.
IAS — Prediction Markets | Results speak.
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One thing we kept coming back to while watching the ETH market today:
At what point does a prediction market stop being a signal of confidence and start becoming a signal of
uncertainty?
Polymarket's ETH market is a good example.
There's strong confidence around the lower price levels, but that confidence falls sharply as we move
toward $2,800 and beyond.
And that's where it gets interesting.
Is the market simply being realistic about how difficult it is for ETH to keep climbing?
Or are traders underestimating how quickly momentum can change in crypto?
How are you reading the ETH probabilities today, momentum, resistance, or simply
positioning?
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IAS retweeted
BREAKING: Democratic Socialist Nithya Raman surges ahead of Karen Bass in the Los Angeles mayoral election odds.
58% chance she wins.
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What is Polymarket really telling us about ETH?
This morning, the interesting part wasn't simply that traders were bullish on Ethereum.
It was where that confidence started to fade.
Polymarket currently puts the probability of ETH finishing above $2,700 at roughly 79%.
But once you
move to $2,800, that drops to around 44%.
That's a pretty meaningful difference for just another $100.
And there's some context behind the market.
ETH has been pushing higher after a period of consolidation, with Reuters noting that it recently broke
above a key technical level around $2,661.
So the question now isn't just whether momentum exists.
It's whether that momentum is strong enough to carry ETH through the next resistance levels.
That's where Polymarket becomes interesting.
Instead of giving us one prediction, it gives us a probability curve, and that curve shows exactly where
trader confidence starts to weaken.
The next few hours could tell us a lot about whether $2,800 becomes a realistic target or remains
a stretch.
ETH has a level to prove today.
Polymarket traders are giving Ethereum a strong chance of staying above $2,600 by tomorrow’s market
resolution.
But the confidence drops quickly as the levels move higher:
$2,600 — ~96%
$2,700 — ~79%
$2,800 — ~44%
$2,900 — ~14%
That gap is what caught our attention.
The market isn't simply asking, “Does ETH go up?”
It’s asking how much further this move can realistically stretch.
And right now, $2,800 looks like the line where conviction starts to get much thinner.
Worth watching.
#IASSTRATEGY
#IAS
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ETH has a level to prove today.
Polymarket traders are giving Ethereum a strong chance of staying above $2,600 by tomorrow’s market
resolution.
But the confidence drops quickly as the levels move higher:
$2,600 — ~96%
$2,700 — ~79%
$2,800 — ~44%
$2,900 — ~14%
That gap is what caught our attention.
The market isn't simply asking, “Does ETH go up?”
It’s asking how much further this move can realistically stretch.
And right now, $2,800 looks like the line where conviction starts to get much thinner.
Worth watching.
#IASSTRATEGY
#IAS
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IAS retweeted
It's all strategy guys.
Today, we unveil the new IAS logo.
It’s All Strategy (IAS) is the dynamic, forward-driving strategic engine the Prediction Meta has been waiting for, an information business built to help you ride market dynamics with predictive intelligence, not pure chance.
Prediction markets are information aggregated under pressure. They’re about managing uncertainty, reading momentum, and making strategic decisions under probabilistic conditions.
IAS exists to give you the information, education, and strategy to move through that uncertainty with clarity, so you don’t drift through the future, you position yourself for it.
Some years ask you to wait.
2026 🐎 asked us to move.
This is Horse Szn.
Momentum is building. The market is moving. And we’re here to ride with it.
Information. Education. Strategy. Participation. Retention. Command.
Together, we move with vision.
Together, we build strategic momentum through uncertainty.
It’s All Strategy.
#ItsAllStrategy
#PredictionMarkets
#HorseSzn
#IAS
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IAS retweeted
JUST IN: Apple & Google are reportedly hiring cryptocurrency developers & digital asset experts as interest in stablecoins & blockchain payments grows.
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IAS retweeted
It’s All strategy 🥶
Today, we unveil the new IAS logo.
It’s All Strategy (IAS) is the dynamic, forward-driving strategic engine the Prediction Meta has been waiting for, an information business built to help you ride market dynamics with predictive intelligence, not pure chance.
Prediction markets are information aggregated under pressure. They’re about managing uncertainty, reading momentum, and making strategic decisions under probabilistic conditions.
IAS exists to give you the information, education, and strategy to move through that uncertainty with clarity, so you don’t drift through the future, you position yourself for it.
Some years ask you to wait.
2026 🐎 asked us to move.
This is Horse Szn.
Momentum is building. The market is moving. And we’re here to ride with it.
Information. Education. Strategy. Participation. Retention. Command.
Together, we move with vision.
Together, we build strategic momentum through uncertainty.
It’s All Strategy.
#ItsAllStrategy
#PredictionMarkets
#HorseSzn
#IAS
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IAS retweeted
🚨Zlatan's reaction to being nutmegged is actually hilarious
Kanyon Sosyal
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Today, we unveil the new IAS logo.
It’s All Strategy (IAS) is the dynamic, forward-driving strategic engine the Prediction Meta has been waiting for, an information business built to help you ride market dynamics with predictive intelligence, not pure chance.
Prediction markets are information aggregated under pressure. They’re about managing uncertainty, reading momentum, and making strategic decisions under probabilistic conditions.
IAS exists to give you the information, education, and strategy to move through that uncertainty with clarity, so you don’t drift through the future, you position yourself for it.
Some years ask you to wait.
2026 🐎 asked us to move.
This is Horse Szn.
Momentum is building. The market is moving. And we’re here to ride with it.
Information. Education. Strategy. Participation. Retention. Command.
Together, we move with vision.
Together, we build strategic momentum through uncertainty.
It’s All Strategy.
#ItsAllStrategy
#PredictionMarkets
#HorseSzn
#IAS
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IAS retweeted
🚨 NEW POLYMARKET: Trump bans more news outlets from White House by September 30?
poly.market/2FpJgRq
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IAS retweeted
JUST IN: France vows a response & will summon Iran’s ambassador after Iranian authorities shut a French language centre in Tehran.
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Zero fees. All weekend
@Polymarket just waved the vig on NFL + college football for Sept 19–20.
Week 1 was massive. They’re celebrating by making Week 2 free to trade.
No fees. Saturday CFB through Sunday Night Football.
This is the cheapest window you’ll get all season
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