A real privilege to take place in last night's hearing on prospects for US-China cooperation on safety. My main points:
- There will be scepticism to navigate on the Chinese side with regards to warnings like Coxon's and proposals for international agreements. AGI/superintelligence and its risks are a live debate in Chinese policy (as in US); and proposals that appear to place limits on Chinese progress based on them will be met with some scepticism.
- But catastrophic risk and loss of control are rising on the Chinese agenda, as evidenced by speeches, and by last week's AI Safety Framework.
- Moreover, China cares about economic growth and stability, and will not want agent swarms running amok, uncontrollable technological developments, or existential risk. China is also notably concerned about non-state actor misuse of frontier AI, which is a clear shared concern.
- Secretary Bessent's announced measures - hotline and incident-sharing - are a great place to start. It seems quite likely to me that China will see similar incidents in the next year, and information-sharing would help to create a common understanding.
- Now is a good time for joint technical working groups defining terms and what to measure, to lay groundwork for any agreement. If we want to agree not to pursue recursive self-improvement, what do we control and what do we measure?
- In parallel there's a lot of promising work on methods for verifying commitments, e.g. where chips are, what they're being used for (training v inference), whether dangerous data is excluded etc. The more can be done collaboratively on developing these tools, the more trusted they will be by all parties.
- Above all, as ranking member Khanna noted, this kind of agreement-reaching is possible, and it's been done before, in even more difficult circumstances such as durign the Cold War. We can do it again now, but we need to recognise the urgency - we may not have years to slowly build up trust and technical collaboration.