A reality check on the current “war with Russia is about to start” frenzy.
Russia is aggressive. It is waging a major war in Ukraine, conducting sabotage and other terror operations in Europe and yes, is testing NATO's red lines
Russia probably wants us to believe so - but there is no new intelligence assessment saying Russia is about to attack NATO.
There is quite a difference between THREAT and IMMINENT WAR. We should be able to understand both at the same time.
So where did the current panic come from?
European politicians and media created a perfect storm, (likely with the help of Russian assets) making deliberately strong statements, often for domestic political reasons.
Russian intimidation and hybrid warfare is designed to frighten, divide and pacify Europe.
Media/sm logic turns “NATO has plans for every contingency” into “NATO expects war any day now.”
The NATO Military Committee chairman said the Alliance has 4,000 pages of plans covering everything from minor incidents to Article 5.
That means NATO is doing its job. Not that war starts Tuesday.
Governments need parliamentary support for defence, Ukraine aid and larger EU/NATO budgets. Russia is a real threat, so politicians are not inventing the danger. But there is an obvious temptation to use the most dramatic formulations available. Everyone exaggerates.
Then Moscow adds more provocations and threats to the mix. And headlines strip away qualifications.
Then algorithms reward the most frightening interpretation.
Within minutes preparedness becomes prediction.
Estonia’s intelligence assessment remains the same: Russia is dangerous and its military capabilities may grow, but we don't see that Russia intends to attack Estonia or another NATO country in the coming months.
Believe me - we are watching very closely, literally. And we will not keep it to ourselves if we see something.
We prepare. All of Europe needs to stop panicking and continue doing the same, seriously and calmly. And increase serious military aid to Ukraine. This is what the fight is about today. To make us wobble. Don't.
Russia wants us uncertain, divided and sacred. Deterrence requires the opposite: strong defence, clear eyes and steady nerves. The one who stays calm wins the fight.