Viva la Vida flashmob in @villecannes

Old but gold. A man is flying in a hot air balloon and realizes he is lost. He reduces height and spots a management consultant below. He lowers the balloon further and shouts, "Excuse me. Can you help me? I promised my friend I would meet him half an hour ago, but I don't know where I am." The consultant below says, "Yes, you are in a hot air balloon hovering approximately 40 feet above this field. You are between 46 & 48 degrees N latitude and between 52 & 56 degrees W longitude." "You must be a management consultant," says the balloonist. "I am," replies the consultant. "How did you know?" "Well," says the balloonist, "everything you have told me is technically correct, but I have no idea what to make of your information and the fact is I'm still lost." The consultant below says, "You must be a manager." "I am," replies the balloonist, "but how did you know?" "Well," says the consultant, "you don't know where you are or where you are going. You have made a promise which you have no idea how to keep and you expect me to solve your problem. The fact is you are in exactly the same position you were in before we met but now it is somehow my fault."

When you start making $50K+ per month, it’s easy to think the money will always be there. Don’t build your life around peak income. Running a business (at least until you get to a certain point) is so cyclical. My income today is ~70% lower than it was 4 years ago. Thankfully I didn’t finance boats, exotic cars, or vacation homes. I did, however, take out a $2M mortgage to buy this $3M primary. At the time the payment was only ~11% of my monthly net. Now? My wife and I wish we would’ve gone with something a little less expensive. High-income years are for building margin—not stacking fixed obligations. Cash reserves. Low leverage. Room to breathe. When you’re truly rich, buy the luxuries in cash. Until then, protect your downside.

“I think it’s the biggest mistake in our business. At some point the analysis becomes counterproductive…speed matters now. If you analyze a company for four months and you’re not willing to operate with 15% or 20% of information, you’ll often miss a big move and then you’re afraid to buy it because it has moved…sometimes when the opportunity is so big and you just kinda know it, you’ve just got to plunge in.”

This period of time in SaaS reminds me of the living hell that is running a hedge fund when a sector dies and you have exposure. 1) You wake up, reach for your phone, see your stocks are down pre-market for the fifth day in a row on no news. Good morning! Go get a bacon / egg / cheese and coffee from a deli - this will be the only good thing about your day and you know it. 2) Enter the office and your SaaS analyst has a grimace on his face. You don't want to have the same conversation you've had in your head and with him 30x a day for the past week so you just go eat your breakfast at your desk while reading news / research. 3) Your analyst comes in and you have the 121st version of the conversation. No new insights. You can sense he is beaten up so you go through 50 mental model / frameworks but neither clarity nor comfort arrives. 4) Morning meeting with the investment team. Someone will invariably ask "So what's our view on this sector?" [meaning the sector that is equal to hell on earth right now]. This kicks off a conversation in which the other analysts who know absolutely nothing about the sector in question will start by asking gently probing questions of you and the analyst. This escalates to unanswerable questions that people only have the nerve to ask when a sector is dead. You have to graciously entertain these questions because the stocks are down so apparently anything goes. You start thinking that everyone in the room is stupid including and maybe mostly you. After 20-30 min of abuse (maybe more) and at the point where you literally have no clue what you're even talking anymore ("when will this turn?), someone will mention that their buddy works at a rival fund where the PM sold the entire sector earlier that week. Another analyst will then mention "That fund is really smart" (implying you are stupid with which you agree wholeheartedly). 5) Meeting over. Now you and your analyst have another conversation, and you can see the fight leaving his body. You wonder how his physical body remains upright seeing as the spine is dissolving in real time but then realize you're not a doctor because you're not smart enough. Anyways, this chat may or may not culminate with the suggestion that "maybe we should take some off or just come back later". At this point, your brain floods with the history of your interactions including how the two of you have patiently been waiting for a "buying opportunity" JUST LIKE THIS. And now that it is here, didn't immediately go up, and, in fact, went down further, you are having to contemplate trimming or selling. You restrain yourself from smashing something but also understand your analyst who doesn't want to destroy his year by January 16th and die like this. Who does? 6) At this point, you realize you are simultaneously fighting 1) the market, 2) your primary analyst, 3) your other analysts, 4) your competition including QQQ which only goes up. And you feel very, very alone in this investment. No joke, this part truly sucks. Most times, you probably trim some of whatever is hurting. Because at least you did something. And if it all goes to hell, you can sell more and say / feel you took the right action. And if it goes higher, well, at least you somewhat stayed. Honestly, at this point, no one will give you any credit for your actions anyways and you're just going to get whatever potential discredit results. It rarely pays or is feasible to be the hero here. 7) Day is almost over. 10 minutes to close or maybe right after, your largest, most "proactive" institutional investor like Blackstone will email "Hey - got a second to chat about Saas?". Or maybe your most unsophisticated investor. Usually both. So then you hop on the phone and explain what you know, what you think and what you did or plan to do. This is the point where having a 10 out of 10 investor like Blackstone helps because they are professional and get it so long as you are sticking to your process. 8) Go workout and feel a bit better. Go home and try to be present with the family for a bit. Then whiskey time and mentally go over everything again. Alone. To make sure you hopefully aren't impairing capital permanently and, if so, have a plan. And that plan is to fire everyone and become a monk. [To my prior SaaS analyst and team, this is not really about you. I mean, you probably did this in some shape or form to me on many occasions. But it's ok. Everyone is doing what they think is best / most helpful at the moment. And I probably did the same thing when I was in your shoes. Just trying to laugh about team investment dynamics during meltdowns and grateful I only have to answer to myself during this SaaS drawdown. So much simpler! Hope you all are well].

Today I turn 55. I’m the fittest, sharpest, and happiest I’ve ever been. If I’m an outlier, it’s not because I’m built different or discovered a secret formula. The truth is far less glamorous: It’s a million tiny choices, compounded over decades. Here are 55 of them: 1. Walk 15+ miles a week, even if you do other exercise. Humans are uniquely made to move slowly over long distances—it’s critical to longevity. 2. Develop a writing practice. It’s the single best way to sharpen your mind. And remember, you don’t have to be a good writer to write. Start with 10 minutes a day. 3. Swap out your toothpaste, deodorant, lotions, soap, shampoo, and other personal care products for natural versions. Here’s a rule of thumb: Don’t put anything on your skin that you couldn’t safely eat. 4. If you have a positive thought about someone, don’t keep it to yourself—share it immediately. Encouragement defies the laws of physics: When you give energy, you also receive it. 5. Wear shoes with a wide forefoot (I like Topo Athletic) and wear toe spreaders around the house (search “yoga toes” on Amazon). Spine health begins with the feet. 6. Get sunlight regularly. Moderate sun exposure (without sunscreen) is hugely important for overall health. 7. Do a 3-minute deep (“ass to grass”) squat every morning. Deep squats are often called the anti-aging exercise. It’s been said that, “It’s not that you can’t do deep squats because you’re old, it’s that you’re old because you can’t do deep squats.” 8. Explore minimalism (it’s not what you think it is). 9. Set boundaries on toxic relationships. We tend to cling to relationships past their expiration date, and it takes a bigger toll on our health than we recognize. 10. Eat real food. Not too much. Don’t eat garbage. Binge occasionally. Fast occasionally. That’s the diet. 11. Learn about FIRE. It’s a great framework for financial success. 12. Don’t take antibiotics except in emergency situations. They’re massively over-prescribed and aren’t needed in most cases. Antibiotics have done untold damage to our guts, which is where health begins. Great natural alternatives are out there. 13. Get 8 hours of quality sleep each night. To optimize sleep: —Don’t eat after 6pm —Get blackout shades and cover LEDs with black tape —No screens 2 hours before bed —Try ashwagandha (an herb) to calm the nervous system 14. Stop drinking, even in moderation. People find all sorts of ways to justify drinking, but there’s no escaping the simple fact that alcohol is a toxin and it limits your potential. 15. Travel as much as possible. Nothing expands the mind like seeing the world. And travel doesn’t have to be expensive—the best experiences happen outside of fancy resorts, when you live like a local. 16. Let go of resentment. When you forgive someone, you release the prisoner, and the prisoner isn’t them… it’s you. 17. Show up on time, every time. Poor time management limits success more than most people realize. If you struggle with punctuality, stop everything else and fix that first. 18. Spend lots of time in nature and touch the earth. Humans evolved over 300k years to live in harmony with nature, and only recently have we retreated indoors. If you don’t spend time outside, you’re fighting biology (hint: You won’t win.) 19. Stop doing dumb things. As Leo Tolstoy said, “People try to do all sorts of clever and difficult things to improve life instead of doing the simplest, easiest thing—refusing to participate in activities that make life bad.” 20. Find your happy place and (eventually) move there. Most people live where they live because... that's where they live. We are products of our environment—choose yours carefully. 21. Find a hobby and pursue mastery. You can’t have a happy life without a passionate pursuit that isn’t your vocation. Your work—even if you enjoy it—isn’t enough. 22. Avoid mainstream medicine except as a last resort. The results are in—our healthcare (or more appropriately, sick care) system is badly broken and only makes people sicker. 23. Have a mindset of abundance. There is no advantage to being a pessimist—even if you’re right, it’s a miserable way to live. In a very real way… whatever you believe, you’re right! 24. Do hard things. Choose courage over comfort. Everything you want is on the other side of fear and hard work. As Jerzy Gregorik said, “Hard choices, easy life. Easy choices, hard life.” 25. Ignore haters. Hurt people hurt people. Negative/toxic people live in a prison of their own design. Don’t join them! 26. Say no. Protect your time and energy like it’s your most precious asset… because it is. 27. Become a water snob. As an alien said on Star Trek, humans are “ugly bags of mostly water.” You are what you drink—literally! We have Mountain Valley Spring water delivered in glass 5-gallon jugs and also have whole-house water filter (Aquasana Rhino). 28. Stop drinking sodas and sugary energy drinks. After a few weeks you won’t miss them, and a few months later they’ll seem disgusting. Refined sugar causes inflammation, which is the root of most disease. 29. If you’re over 35, find a good functional/longevity medicine doctor and start tracking your hormones. Modern life is hell on the endocrine system and restoring healthy hormone levels can change your life. As we get older, we either accept a slow decline in performance or we do something about it—choose the latter! 30. Develop a morning routine and follow it faithfully. Win the morning, win the day! 31. Invest in experiences, not things. People frequently regret buying things, but rarely regret investing in great experiences (especially when shared with loved ones). Remember, there’s nothing you can buy in a mall that you’ll remember in ten years. 32. Explore spirituality. It’s arrogant and small-minded to believe there’s nothing going on in our universe that is beyond our comprehension. We know less about our universe than an ant meandering on a sidewalk understands about this planet. 33. Have a strong bias toward action—doing rather than talking. If you ask a bunch of old people about their regrets, they’ll talk about the things they *didn't* do—the shots they didn’t take—more than the things they did do (even if it went wrong). As Wayne Gretzky famously said, “You miss 100% of the shots you don’t take.” Most people don’t take enough shots. 34. Stay lean. Men in particular are obsessed with muscle mass these days, but bulk doesn’t age well. The goal is to be strong but lean. The fittest guys in their 50s and beyond aren’t meatheads, they’re lean guys who are serious about a sport. 35. Curate your inner circle carefully. Surround yourself with people you admire and who challenge you to grow. Remember, we’re the average of our 5 closest relationships. 36. Be the fittest version of yourself. Your body is your only vessel for experiencing life—so treat it as such. Fitness isn’t working out a few times a week, it’s a lifestyle. The older you get, the more time you need to devote to your health. 37. Take the time to appreciate art and beauty in all its forms. 38. Think globally, but act locally. Too many people put their energy into far-away problems they don’t understand and can’t impact, while ignoring problems right under their nose. Want to change the world? Start at home. 39. Try psychedelics. It’s one of those things everyone should do at least once, and it might be the breakthrough you’ve been looking for. 40. Limit bad habits, including unhealthy thought patterns. We all have them—practice avoidance and find substitutes. Get professional help if needed. 41. Be a lifelong learner. Your brain is just like a muscle—if you don’t feed and flex it regularly, it will atrophy. 42. Find your purpose. People with a strong sense of purpose are happier and live longer. Lack of purpose sucks energy and magnifies depression. 43. Only take advice from people who embody the traits you want to have. Talk is cheap—emulate those who have DONE it. 44. The goal is not to retire and do nothing, it’s to build a great day-to-day life that you don’t need to escape. A life of leisure is a slow death. Happiness isn’t possible without a little struggle, uncertainty, and skin in the game. 45. Have fun! Do frivolous and silly things that make you smile. As George Bernard Shaw famously said, “We don't stop playing because we grow old; we grow old because we stop playing.” 46. Whatever you want to do or achieve in life, start NOW. Don’t fall victim to “someday thinking” because someday never comes. 47. Accumulate assets—things that grow in value over time. It’s the #1 habit of rich people, and it can be done in tiny chunks. Instead of spending $100 on an impulse purchase that has no lasting value, put that money into an index fund or Bitcoin. It becomes addictive (in a good way). 48. Don’t ignore the big 3 canaries in the coal mine for health: —Low libido (and ED) —Frequent sinus & respiratory issues —Depression These usually aren’t medical conditions in themselves, they’re symptoms of an underlying problem. Find a good doc (outside of the mainstream) and figure out the root cause. 49. Have a clear vision for your future. How can you decide which direction to go if you haven’t clearly defined the destination? It sounds obvious, but 95% of people haven’t defined their “Ideal End State” in detail and in writing. (Check out my thread on this topic.) 50. Make your own decisions. We live in an era where most of what society tells us is wrong. Don’t be afraid to break from societal norms—if people say you’re crazy, it’s a sign that you’re doing something right. 51. Get hardcore about mobility exercise. As you age, it’s usually the knees, hips, and lower back that limit physical performance. 30 min a couple times a week can spare you a lifetime of pain. YouTube is a great resource. 52. Go all in on family. Get married, stay married, have kids. Burn the boats. In the end, family is all that matters. 53. Be ruthless with your time. Money comes and goes. Time only goes. Audit your calendar ruthlessly—cut the trivial, double down on the meaningful, and spend your hours like your life depends on it. (Because it does.) 54. Have a strong bias toward action. Be curious, try things, meet people—it’s how you increase your surface area for serendipity, the most powerful unseen force in our lives. 55. Reinvent yourself every decade. Over time, we slowly drift off course from our priorities, values, and true identity. Take stock and don’t be afraid to hit the reset button. Bold, calculated moves made for the right reasons almost always pay off—usually even more than you can imagine. 🎁 P.S. If you enjoyed this post, would you give me a birthday gift? Repost or comment with the item number(s) you liked best?

A huge issue I see among investors is that they implicitly apply a labor theory of value to their research process--they commit a tremendous amount of time towards achieving a deep understanding of a business/industry and they think that the market will reward that level of effort even if what they are doing is essentially asking to be paid for digging a hole and filling it back up. The reality is that even terrible businesses are often extremely complex and fascinating but a 20 page research report about them is basically just an exercise in communicating how effective capitalism is in coordinating different parties to deliver value to consumers. Very rarely do businesses provide excess economic profit to shareholders over sustained periods of time and those companies that do are often pretty simple.

Amazing how investors can forget the implications of investing at peak hype. Consider SaaS in 2020-2022. I took the @Wing_VC enterprise tech 30 from 2020, filtered down to the 23 companies that achieved unicorn valuations, tracked their peak valuation and compared to their most recently announced valuation. As far as I can tell (please correct if you see a mistake) only three have raised at up rounds from that peak: @figma, @VerkadaHQ and @databricks. The Nasdaq is up 42% from its 2021 peak. Many (most!) are still great companies- but human behaviors rhyme with history and hype blinds folks to both valuation and fundamentals. If you were fortunate enough to have your pick of the "hot" deals in 2021 (few were and they were grinding for it!), you're almost certainly still underwater today.

Go to the gym, Even if you’re tired. Start that business, Even if you’re poor. Invest in education, Even if you’re broke. Approach that girl, Even if you’re shy. Do that work, Even if you’re not motivated. You are a man, Find a way to get things done.

Life lessons are sometimes unbelievable👏🙏

Self-identifying as a long-term investor doesn't mean not to sell. Stocks must earn their place, most won't. Harvesting losses or a short-term gain is not inconsistent. It's necessary. Keep only what's deserving of a commitment. Be unsentimental about what isn't.

Here is a track record with longevity! Near 400 fold gain on capital over 40 years

16 Secrets of Ultra-Productive People ‼️ h/t: @RobDance_

Today seems like a good day to rewatch this Michael Saylor video from 2012 about Apple stock. 🍎 He also briefly talks about Dell computers. 👀 #Bitcoin

> born in taiwan > worked as a dishwasher at Denny's > went to Stanford > got a job > quit the job > went to california > started nvidia > pitched sequoia w/o a business plan > ventured into 3D chips > launched failed with NV1 chips > sold 250,000 to Diamond multimedia > 249,000 returned back to nvidia > NV1 ended in disaster > developed NV2 with Sega > NV2 was also doomed > had 1 shot to create the perfect chip > bought "emulator" from a dying company > made RIVA 128NV3 > nvidia engineers made the best inverse texture mapping engine > sold 1 million units > developed first programmable chip GeForce 256 > that was the world's first GPU > massive success > went public in 1999 > partnered with Microsoft to build XBox > didn't want to get trapped in the gaming market only > 2006, decided to put CUDA in GPUs > molecular dynamics, seismic processing, CT reconstruction, image processing were now open to explore > andrew ng came in with his ug student ian goodfellow to build a GPU server in his dorm room > 100x seedup in training neural networks on GPUs > Yann LeCunn at NYU as doing the same, all if them reached out to nvidia > Nvidia decided to put it's bet into AI which was in 2012 a 0 billion dollar market > nvidia reached to every single AI researcher in the planet > got positive feedback > continued building for AI > OpenAI launched ChatGPT > suddenly everyone was bullish on AI > 1999 stock price was <$0.5 > today, nvidia stands at $1220+ > a 298,534.15% increase > 31 years of nvidia > $3T in market cap in 2024 Jensen Huang and Nvidia, ladies and gentlemen.

A Sneak Preview of My Forthcoming Book Hidden Monopolies (Retweets are appreciated).

The biggest mistake I see from non professional investors is the belief that the business and the stock are the same thing. Perhaps over 10-15 years this is true in many cases. Unfortunately, holding periods, patience and portfolio discipline don’t match this timeline.

Be contrarian. Be right. Don’t chase the pack.

If everything about our society seems phony to you, it's because it is. The politicians lie, the news media lie, the movies lie, the internet lies, the adverts lie, the shows between the adverts lie. That's what you get when you live under an empire that's held together by lies.