Founded, built, and sold SentimenTrader. Now helping my son build NextGen News. I edit the Markets section.
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Look, I know...perma-bear blah blah blah.
But this is crazy stuff.
There are 2 days in history like today, when the S&P 500 $SPY rallied at least 1% to within 1% of a new high, and more of its stocks fell to new lows than highs.
• Jul 23, 1929
• Dec 21, 1999
We've never in almost 100 years seen breadth this bad.
The S&P $SPY is knocking on new highs but there are (many) more stocks at lows than highs.
The percentage of stocks in long-term uptrends is plunging.
The only remotely similar setups were January 1973 and November 1999.
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Depends on the definition of "banks," but financials in general are off about 6% as the S&P $SPY nears a new high.
This is an "almost necessary but not sufficient" warning sign.
It triggered before almost every major decline...but too many false signals in between.
FUN FACT 🚨: Banks are down more than 10% from a 30-day high while the S&P 500 is less than 1% away from an all-time high ✅ The last time this happened was January 2000, 2 months before the Dot Com Bubble Burst 👀
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We've never in almost 100 years seen breadth this bad.
The S&P $SPY is knocking on new highs but there are (many) more stocks at lows than highs.
The percentage of stocks in long-term uptrends is plunging.
The only remotely similar setups were January 1973 and November 1999.
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Adding all signals and broader market context together, our price projection is now negative for the first time since we started publishing this about 6 months ago.
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You can see the full context and all signals at this link.
It's free.
If you'd like to sponsor the page, email info@nextgennews.media
nextgennews.media/markets
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One of the more reliable warning signs is when junk bond traders flee before stock market investors catch on.
It's not like it predicts a crash or anything; just a generally tough market environment until the junk bond A/D line starts rising again.
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🤨 shares outstanding have 10x in the last decade
The biggest short squeeze of 2026 will be US Bonds
$TLT.
Scott Bessent is manufacturing it right now!
I'm long with 40% of my portfolio.
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Jason Goepfert retweeted
The Iran war's cost to Americans just surged past $100,000,000,000 ($100 billion).
It's rising about $1 million every 2 minutes.
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Jason Goepfert retweeted
Flock cameras are taking off.
Those and other ALPR camera installations have gone vertical as the company courts law enforcement.
The public is not happy.
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Traders seem anxious to hold overnight all of a sudden.
$SPY has closed in the bottom half of its range almost every day for two weeks.
Very unusual.
It's never happened so close to a high.
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Yeah, it happened. More than 3 times as many securities hitting 52-week lows as highs on the NYSE.
Hasn't preceded great returns for the S&P.
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For the full dates, visit our Markets page. It's free.
nextgennews.media/markets
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The S&P 500 $SPY is less than a week and 2% from record highs.
And already there are 3x more new lows than highs on the NYSE.
Last time that happened was Dec 14, 2021.
We'll see if it holds into the close. It's not exactly a great longer-term sign.
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Traders are record short while insiders are near 15-year high in buying activity.
* Posted wrong chart earlier.
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Fun fact: The first 10 days of August are on track to be >+4% for the S&P 500 $SPY.
The last time that happened was Aug 14, 2000.
The time before that was Aug 14, 1987.
🤷♂️
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This is a great sign...for now.
Just note that as/if stocks creep higher while conditions tighten over weeks/months, the S&P 500 drawdowns have been notable.
Bloomberg's US Financial Conditions index has loosened to its most accommodative since the 1990s. This measure accounts for money market, corporate and muni spreads, stock values and implied stock and bond volatility.
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