CIO @arca - digital assets investing | Former COO of Harvest Exchange | Former Lehman, Merrill, Citadel | Huge Cleveland Sports Fan | CFA charterholder
Los Angeles, CA
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There are a few Crypto hills that I will die on.
I've been writing about these topics, and debating people for years.
Today I'm laying them all out in one place. I will happily debate any of these topics with anyone at anytime.
A thread👇
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Hundreds of crypto lawyers made a fortune the last 4 years dishing out dishonest and incorrect securities law advice, which led to crypto becoming a wasteland of inflationary L1s and meme coins
Hats off to the few projects who saw through the nonsense and built tokens correctly from the start.
Some bangers from the SEC today:
1) buybacks do not make a commodity token into a security
2) liquid staking tokens for commodities are not securities
sec.gov/about/divisions-offi…
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Jeff Dorman retweeted
Aerodrome just announced they’re launching on Robinhood Chain.
Just for reference, here is Uniswap’s DEX volume: all the red at the end of the chart is just RH chain.
Btw, UNI is up 3x since the summer.
Aero is set for takeoff 🛫
Launch date and details here:
aero.xyz/articles/aero-launc…
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Jeff Dorman retweeted
Halftime Show - market beginning to wake up to $AERO into:
- v3
-Arc deployment
- RH chain deployment (per their tweet today)
- Q4 + healthy undertow for market
Historically AERO has been a massive impulse-based asset
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Correct. But all it takes is a promise to use some portion of the future revenues to buyback tokens, and some VIP treatment for token holders (discounts, early reservations, etc) and voila, the token now has both utility value (spend at the restaurant) and financial value (quasi-equity value).
This isn’t that hard. We’ve been saying for years that buybacks are the only way to create value for a token. But when done right, tokens become the greatest capital formation and customer bootstrapping mechanism ever created.
Think of a new, amazing restaurant.
You're sure it's going to be huge.
So you buy $10k in gift cards.
5 years later, you're right. The owner opened 4 new locations.
Your gift cards remain the same value. The owner made a killing.
Most crypto tokens are like gift cards.
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Good time to re-read the piece on $SECZ from @joeyreinberg_ back in June, discussing why @Securitize was poised to win the RWA tokenization race on the heels of the recent SEC Innovation Exemption
We think there are only 4 blockchain themes worth investing in today:
1) RWA tokenization -- $SECZ, Kraken, $HOOD
2) DeFi - $HYPE $AERO, ethereum:0xb1d1eae60eea9525032a6dcb4c1ce336a1de71be, $LIT etc
3) Stables/payments -- much tougher as most pure plays don't actually make much money
4) AI - $GLXY $TAO base:0xacfe6019ed1a7dc6f7b508c02d1b04ec88cc21bf
(NOTE: GLXY actually gives you exposure to all 4)
nitter.net/jdorman81/status/20719…
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Been true for 2+ years... still true... will always be true. Stop letting the "Four Horsemen of Incompetence" (Exchanges, VCs, Market makers and the media) gaslight you into thinking the nonsense L1, L2 and memecoins have economic value.
Revenue-generating tokens are going to win in this cycle.
The biggest upside could come from protocols
that share their success with token holders.
10 revenue machines worth watching:
$STONK - @LaunchOnSF
$AERO - @aeroxyz
$PUMP - @Pumpfun
$RAY - @Raydium
$HYPE - @HyperliquidX
$UNI - @Uniswap
$LIT - @Lighter_xyz
$ASTER - @Aster_DEX
$PENDLE - @pendle_fi
$VVV - @AskVenice
The last column is annualized holders revenue as a % of market cap.
Higher % = more value flowing back relative to valuation, and potentially more upside.
Bookmark this one!
The numbers are worth watching.
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Counter. There are only a handful of crypto assets that are meaningfully higher YTD (1st column) and those are the highest revenue generative assets with the best tokenomics. Reality is that most assets are only up a modest amount since the stone cold July 1 lows (2nd column). Looking further back to the Oct 2025 highs (3rd column) and almost all assets are still down -30-50%. Crypto stocks look similar.
Would hardly call this euphoric.
Crypto market is feeling a bit euphoric. I would not be surprised if there was a pull back or consolidation period. It's important to zoom out and not over trade. It's impossible to time all the micro tops or bottoms, easier to own high quality names and let the thesis play out.
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This is the easiest cycle ever because you can just say “does it make money”
If yes compare to the other tokens that make money on a few simple metrics (PE ratio, holder rights, buybacks, unlocks)
If no skip it. Maybe it goes up but why take a hard trade?
Derive, Hyperliquid, Aerodrome, Uniswap, Near, and Pendle collectively generated ~$560m in revenue YTD.
Their tokens are also among the strong performers.
The market is increasingly pricing in revenue and token alignment.
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Seven years ago, we argued tokenization wasn’t failing because blockchain didn’t work.
We were just tokenizing assets nobody cared about.
Now BlackRock, Robinhood, Nasdaq, NYSE, DTCC and JPMorgan are putting the assets people actually want on-chain.
This time is different and it’s all coming together as we thought it would.
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Jeff Dorman retweeted
I've been saying what's next for months:
If CLARITY stalls, the SEC and CFTC are already advancing Project Crypto — a joint regulatory effort aimed at delivering a meaningful portion of the market structure framework through rulemaking rather than statute. It’s not the same as legislation, but it’s real progress. I track one of the key pieces (Crypto Assets rulemaking on offers, sales, exemptions, and safe harbors) here: reginfo.gov/public/do/eAgend…
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There's a quiet irony watching Senators slowly walk to a podium to place an in person vote while some secretary calls out their name to verify the vote... while that vote decides the fate of a new technology (blockchain) dedicated to improving record keeping and asset transfer
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Jeff Dorman retweeted
100%
I wrote exactly this on July 13th: "The substance of the crypto market structure is still, as I said last month, largely finished. What's changed since June is not the policy — it's that the politics got heavier (the disclosure and the gravitational pull of the midterms). ar.ca/blog/claritys-home-str…
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Jeff Dorman retweeted
Members in tight races don’t vote on “market structure.” They vote on whether the people in their state keep more money, hire more neighbors, and feel like DC is working for them. Crypto keeps talking to itself. CLARITY dies if we keep doing that.
Put yourself in that member’s chair. Groceries. Mortgage. A kid’s school. A plant that might add a shift — or freeze hiring until “someone in Washington decides what this asset even is.” Stablecoins and tokenization are real. They still don’t show up on a kitchen table in Missouri or Wisconsin unless we draw the line.
Last year I walked @RepBryanSteil through one Wisconsin line item: Harley-Davidson brings front forks and rear shocks from Showa in Japan into York and Menomonee Falls. A USD/JPY wire still hits correspondent banks, cutoff times, T+1 to T+5. A dollar stablecoin can settle in minutes, 24/7. When a shipment sits for payment confirmation, that is payroll and production in Wisconsin — not a white paper.
Same conversation with @SenatorHick staff: 30+ companies already operating in Colorado that will not hire until the path is clear. Chokepoint 2.0 didn’t “regulate.” It pushed American founders and taxable payroll offshore. That’s lost GDP in the states those members represent. National security and the “space race” framing are true. They are not what a parent in Waukesha or Aurora hears first.
Celebrate the work that already hits the ground. In 2025 @Ripple / @bgarlinghouse put $25M into DonorsChoose ($15M) and Teach For America ($10M) — most of it in RLUSD. A year later: 48,108 classroom projects in all 50 states, 86% in majority low-income schools; stipends for 2,300 new TFA teachers; financial-literacy materials for hundreds of thousands of students. That’s the template. Not another DC talking point.
CLARITY should pass. The job now is not another thread about why we need it. It’s one page per state: which employers, which payments, which classrooms, which hires. If the industry can’t make that case in plain English, members in contested races will keep choosing the issue that already has a grocery-store sentence.
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Every FOMC decision is a 50/50 toss up now that the Fed doesn't explicitly tell you what they're going to do, but 60% odds of a hike seem wrong. Treating Warsh’s lack of guidance as inherently hawkish is a mistake. There is a higher variance around outcomes now, but that doesn't mean a higher probabilty of a new outcome.
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Jeff Dorman retweeted
I continue to believe $GLXY is the best risk/reward in the market
It's wild for me to say this about a stock valued at $10B
the current val of Galaxy is fulfilled by the 800MW Helios l Coreweave lease of $1B+/year for 15 years
The rest of the company is free, which includes:
- $2B of digital assets on their balance sheet
- One of the largest and most reputable institutional crypto brokerage in the USA (and likely globally)
- 5.7GW of Data Center Power Pipeline
- 1.53 GW available to be contracted (2x the contracted amount that the market already values around $8-$9B)
So if we assume an $8B valuation for 800MW of contracted capacity, at any point Galaxy could announce a tenant for the 1.53 GW, which would mean $24B valuation just on this alone
Then you need to account for the $2B+ of digital assets on their balance sheet and a crypto brokerage that will likely become profitable in Q3 after Bitcoins recent run up. Let's call it a $5B valuation total (on the low side)
And then you have the pipeline of another 3.2GW of power. This is not contracted or contractable, so its value is much much lower, but it's not 0 either
Based on this we're sitting at a $30B valuation for Galaxy in its current state, a 3 x from current prices ($75/share). And this barely accounts for what happened to the crypto business and balance sheet if we're entering into another crypto bull market
For context, Galaxy reached more than a $10B valuation back in 2021 off only its crypto business (the AI data center business didn't exist) and back then it's business was much smaller and less diverse than it is today
If we enter another crypto bull market, I would then expect Galaxy to reach more than $100/share
But what makes this bet so good is that I'm talking about a potential 4x in Galaxy, with a floor of around $8B, due to the 15 year contract with Coreweave.
So the down side is $20, with an upside of $100 and we currently sit at $26. Find me a better opportunity in the market right now please
$GLXY remains one of the largest positions in my Milk Road PRO portfolio. You can see what else I hold in my portfolio by joining Milk Road PRO, which is just $1 right now. Get real time trades and research from 5 analysts for $1: link.milkroad.com/t5837z
Is today the day Galaxy announces conditional approval for another 700MW ready to be contracted?
That would rerate the stock pretty quickly. Everyone knows about Helios, but fewer people know about Caspian.
It would push Galaxy's contracted capacity to 2.33GW, of which only 800MW is contracted today.
Here is what changed in the last few days.
Hut 8 data center called Beacon Point (1GW campus leased to Nvidia) announced on Friday that it received a conditional Base Load classification in ERCOT's Batch Zero Process. It means the projects under the same classification (with conditional approval) can be commercialized via a tenant lease.
Iren, another AI data center developer, announced conditional approval of 2GW just today.
And now all eyes are on Galaxy.
Galaxy got 830MW approved back in January, but then ERCOT launched a new "Batch" review process to handle the unprecedented wave of AI mega-data centers trying to connect to the Texas grid. Because of this new system, everyone was concerned that previously approved projects would face major grid-connection delays.
Last week, Morgan Stanley put a 95% probability on Galaxy getting approval for these 830MW. Even Galaxy itself labels this capacity as
"available to contract." So this part is likely priced in.
But what isn't priced in is the potential for Galaxy to get conditional approval for Caspian's 700 MW.
Here is what Ferrero, president and CIO, said during Q2 earnings about Caspian:
"That site was already known in terms of what specific T&D infrastructure upgrades needed to be made. And therefore, we could attest to having acquired all of the electrical equipment, having had the steady state and stability studies approved and a known amount needed to be funded to the utilities, TSPs in order to upgrade the grid, and we did all that in advance of the deadline. And so Caspian in that whole portfolio is very well positioned to be a 100% allocated 700-megawatt baseload once ERCOT works through their own process."
There is a pretty decent chance Galaxy got that approval and will announce it soon. That would mean 1.53GW of uncontracted capacity.
I think I don’t have enough $GLXY, even though it’s my biggest position by far.
If you like my updates, follow me @m0xt_ to get all the news.
You can also join Milk Road PRO, where five analysts manage and share their portfolios in real time. link.milkroad.com/Martin
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