The thing about AI and writing is that it will have nothing to do with 'writing,' in the end, but also it will dramatically transform virtually everything *around* 'writing.' And this is just going to obliterate minds and egos and public discourse in bewildering ways for some time.
AI changes dramatically what it is possible to ask, how one can do research, edit, publish, etc.—while strangely, somehow, not actually affecting the core task and role of the human thinker/writer. So every simplistic take that plays best on social media will essentially doom you to misunderstand what's happening, and what to do about it. I'm pretty sure I've crossed into thousands of hours with every model, agent, and harness over the past two years, including countless custom tools, and this is what all of my conviction is amounting to as I try to solidify my strategic viewpoint looking out at the next 10 years of public intellectual life: That a very low percent of serious writers are sufficiently excited and joyful about AI in all of the places where it should be used, and a very high percent of the biggest bulls are fundamentally confused about where it will really matter for knowledge work (outside of verifiable domains).
The situation could not be more favorable for passionate and independent thinkers with an open, honest, experimental attitude toward truth-seeking as a vocation. A lot of the alpha will be private and personal for a long time still, I suspect.