Co-Founder & General Partner @dba_xyz
- Tweets 11,631
- Following 591
- Followers 27,062
- Likes 60,608
The P(doom) forecasts I actually want to see:
1) prediction markets on P(doom)* for given dates
2) conditional markets showing change in P(doom) for specific actions (e.g., how much does P(doom) shift for date X if the Ban Artificial Superintelligence Act is enacted by date Y)
9
33
5,260
*P(doom) needs to be more narrowly defined than "everyone dies". Market won't function properly if nobody can collect resolution. You can more narrowly define "doom" (e.g., some large % of global population is killed) which in practice will surface mostly the same useful info.
1
6
1,330
The P(doom) forecasts I don't want to see:
exactly this
random AI employees aren't experts in forecasting p(doom)
p(doom) is a thought experiment requiring broad real world understanding more than AI tech expertise
similarly this is why the AI labs have all been wrong about predicting economic impacts of AI to date
611
exactly this
random AI employees aren't experts in forecasting p(doom)
p(doom) is a thought experiment requiring broad real world understanding more than AI tech expertise
similarly this is why the AI labs have all been wrong about predicting economic impacts of AI to date
Sorry, but asking Jacob about AI extinction risk is like asking your AC guy about climate change.
Not saying it's necessarily uninteresting or wrong per se but let’s keep things in perspective and hear from the full range of expertise across the ecosystem!
2
14
4,006
Jon Charbonneau 🇺🇸 retweeted
GPT-6 Astra is more aligned than our previous models. But it’s also less monitorable, which is a concerning trend that we take very seriously. We believe monitorability drop comes from a jump in intelligence and not direct optimization pressure on CoT or architecture changes. More thoughts in the thread.
42
83
622
134,179
"GPT-6 Astra shows a substantial decrease in chain-of-thought monitorability compared to previous models"
Astra has increased ability to control or shorten its CoT to evade monitors under adversarial conditions
Mech interp importance is increasing
deploymentsafety.openai.com/…
*monitor-ability* is the invariant that must be preserved, and the real solution will be via strong mechanistic interpretability. i predict in the next year there’ll be mechinterp monitoring that’s pareto optimal to cot monitors
6
14
3,599
the nonsensical decel anti-growth mindset is the biggest fundamental issue with the Dems
theres ~3 big economic levers - growth, taxes, & government spending
neither party has great policy on taxes or govt spending
but being pro-growth bails you out of a lot
Bernie Sanders and Greg Casar today announced the Ban Artificial Superintelligence Act. All AI development in the United States will be paused. Systems that have capabilities that match or exceed human cognitive performance will be banned. Violators will face 20 years in prison.
8
17
2,155
Jon Charbonneau 🇺🇸 retweeted
MetaDAO is rebuilding venture capital for the internet.
Check out our new website to learn more metadao.fi
44
48
314
50,560
Jon Charbonneau 🇺🇸 retweeted
We’ve helped 15 startups raise $45,000,000 from over 137,000 people on the internet.
Now we want to help consumer app founders do the same. On top of giving them up to $10k/mo in marketing/ad spend!
DM me if you want to win
114
69
918
376,892
once again this should just be decided by a decision market
It seems that many people randomly voted no for Solana disinflation velocity at last second instead of having any discussion under a false facade of thinking it somehow preserves extra revenue through yield for them
The math is that if you believe avoiding an extra 19M SOL being printed can affect valuation by as little as 1.03%, it'd be more profitable to vote yes, even as someone who relies on inflation yield, not to mention the mimetic element for new capital
The people who prefer the quantity of the asset vs the value of it should immediately move to Venezuela and let other SOL holders know how that works out
It is mathematically nonsense to vote no to preserve miniscule marginal inflation revenue unless you believe that inflation is less than a 1% factor in the valuation of an asset
10
7
84
12,217
Jon Charbonneau 🇺🇸 retweeted
Every prediction market you've ever used has a gatekeeper. Not anymore.
The era of creator-made prediction markets starts now.
Sign up below to secure beta access, claim your first badge, and start earning your Melee Score.
melee.markets/
410
5,470
7,958
152,791
"I have spent five decades trading on a simple premise: Markets aggregate information no committee possesses, and prices are how that information reaches decision makers."
MetaDAO is inevitable
Stanley Druckenmiller renders an unfavorable opinion of Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent's use of buybacks to defend against higher yields in a market that is functioning normally.
"I have spent five decades trading on a simple premise: Markets aggregate information no committee possesses, and prices are how that information reaches decision makers. The long-term Treasury yield is the most important price in the world. It is also the only fiscal disciplinarian the U.S. has left."
"Every basis point of artificial yield suppression is a subsidy to procrastination."
"Return buybacks to their stated purpose: small, scheduled, off-the-run liquidity operations announced at quarterly refundings, never off-cycle responses to yield levels. Term out the debt honestly and pay the price the market sets."
"If the 30-year must trade at 5.5% to clear, that isn’t a crisis. It is an invoice. Then do the only thing that durably lowers long-term yields: address the primary deficit."
wsj.com/opinion/let-the-bond…
5
11
67
7,322
agree with pretty much all of these points
the challenge now is its just harder to buy SOL at $60bn when HYPE & PUMP are both cheaper, have stronger revenue/fundamentals, & are cleaner expressions together covering most of the SOL thesis but at the layer capturing more value
Think $SOL is about to make a big comeback and is the most asymmetric major over the next 6 – 18 months.
Some notes.
1. After 10 months in a row of down only, most retail and funds have capitulated, leaving only committed holders
2. One of three index assets alongside BTC and ETH that both retail and institutions will reflexively bid once it’s clear we’re back
3. Highest concentration of revenue generating apps and some of the strongest network effects of any general purpose L1
4. Solana has the most credible path to scale of any L1 w/ slot times approaching 200ms by end of Sept
5. Upcoming SIMDs will strengthen SOL economics through increased fee burns and lower inflation. Estimate Solana REV could 2x – 4x in next year easy
6. Stablecoin volumes rivaling Ethereum, Tron, Base for top payments chain
7. Tokenized equity volumes are ramping with Solana as the leader across all L1s
8. Long tail markets like memecoins, TCG, and MetaDAO “ownership” (startups) coins are all accelerating
9. Social trading apps like Fomo and Pump are onboarding a big wave of new users with Solana as the largest beneficiary
There were many reasons to be critical about Solana over the past year, but the past is becoming past.
Fundamentals look great and the value capture story will only improve with each passing quarter.
Targeting much much higher.
19
6
102
25,304