I have never expressed a p(doom), and I think
@random_walker is basically right that we have little basis for quantitative estimates of the likelihood of AI-induced existential/catastrophic risk.
On the other hand, this is not like the situation in 1942 when physicists worried that a nuclear chain reaction could ignite the atmosphere. More careful calculations showed that the N14 isotope of nitrogen could not sustain fusion.
The systems in play this time are much more complex then atoms, and no one has presented a knock-down argument that *any* of the various AI disaster scenarios are impossible.
And indeed, there are worrying signs. The worst safety incidents so far have unfolded much as predicted by the simple theory of reward learning, almost two decades ago. This suggests that we understand at least something of the basic principles involved.
Meanwhile, model capabilities are undeniably increasing rapidly. It's getting hard to sustain the position that advances in current LLM-based methods won't get us to superintelligence (however defined).
Thus, I won't give you a probability of catastophe, because I cannot claim to know that much. Yet I continue to take the problem of AI safety very seriously.
My own research program remains figuring out how to ensure that the widespread deployment of these models in human affairs causes less violence and war, not more.