Great to speak at the Westminster Energy Forum on the latest science on the AMOC. Thanks to the organisers for the invitation and to everyone for the engaging discussion.

Some key messages: • The AMOC is very likely to weaken as the climate warms. • A collapse this century appears unlikely in climate model projections, although uncertainty remains. • Different studies can reach contrasting conclusions due to different methods and assumptions

A balanced overview of some of the latest AMOC science and debates. There is still substantial uncertainty, and while collapse cannot be ruled out, claims of very high collapse probabilities (>50%) currently go beyond the combined evidence from observations and models.

New study on blocking the Bering Strait to prevent an AMOC collapse. Shows how complex the system is. Interventions like this are unlikely to offer a simple solution. Cutting greenhouse gas emissions remains the most reliable way to reduce AMOC risk. livescience.com/planet-earth…

Quoted in this @newscientist article on study linking AMOC collapse to large CO₂ release from Southern Ocean. “To see this play out in a warmer climate, and with such a large increase in CO₂, is quite striking.” Key uncertainties remain in SO response newscientist.com/article/252…