josé
@josefbednar

Trader | Data Analyst | AI Researcher | Follow for real-time trade entries

Joined March 2024
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josé
@josefbednar
Sep 1
I don't have a course to sell you and I'm not posting $BTC to $250k every day until it happens. I do think this cycle ends higher. The market makers just pump it to wipe out the shorts and dump it to wipe out the longs on the way there, and most people only work that out once it's happened to them. Bull, not blind.
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FIL ran 26% in five hours on a dead Sunday. Open interest climbed from $51M to $64M as it went. Fresh longs, chasing. Binance top traders sold into all of it: long-to-short from 2.8 to 2.2 in three hours. Who bought the top? 1h chart, Binance.
1-hour candlestick chart of FIL/USDT on Binance over three days. Price trades sideways near $0.80, then jumps from $0.82 to a high of $1.03 in five hours on September 13, closing near $0.99. A second pane shows open interest rising from about $51M to $64M during the spike. A third pane shows the Binance top-trader long-to-short position ratio falling from about 2.8 to 2.2 over the same hours.

ALT 1-hour candlestick chart of FIL/USDT on Binance over three days. Price trades sideways near $0.80, then jumps from $0.82 to a high of $1.03 in five hours on September 13, closing near $0.99. A second pane shows open interest rising from about $51M to $64M during the spike. A third pane shows the Binance top-trader long-to-short position ratio falling from about 2.8 to 2.2 over the same hours.
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SUI hasn't closed above its 200-day average in 339 days. The previous longest run was 138. And the longs are finally leaving. $31M liquidated in 24 hours, a fifth of the long side, and top traders just cut to even with the crowd. Who's left to sell? 1d chart, Binance.
Daily SUI candlestick chart on Binance from September 2025 to September 2026, log scale, with the 200-day moving average overlaid. Price falls from about $4.00 to $0.71. A dashed vertical line in October 2025 marks the last daily close above the 200-day average, 339 days ago. The average, now near $0.85, slopes down the whole way and price never touches it again.

ALT Daily SUI candlestick chart on Binance from September 2025 to September 2026, log scale, with the 200-day moving average overlaid. Price falls from about $4.00 to $0.71. A dashed vertical line in October 2025 marks the last daily close above the 200-day average, 339 days ago. The average, now near $0.85, slopes down the whole way and price never touches it again.
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AVAX fell 10% in five days and the crowd walked. The desks didn't. Long at $7.39. Stop $7.12. Target $7.82. Top traders are 10 points more long than retail, wider than 98% of the past year. $7.27 held twice. Side with the desks. 4h chart, Binance.
4-hour AVAXUSDT candlestick chart on Binance showing the fall from $8.20 on September 8 to $7.39 now, with trade levels marked: entry $7.39, stop $7.12, target $7.82. A lower pane plots percent long on Binance: crowd accounts fall from about 74% to 62% after September 11 while top-trader positions hold near 73%.

ALT 4-hour AVAXUSDT candlestick chart on Binance showing the fall from $8.20 on September 8 to $7.39 now, with trade levels marked: entry $7.39, stop $7.12, target $7.82. A lower pane plots percent long on Binance: crowd accounts fall from about 74% to 62% after September 11 while top-trader positions hold near 73%.
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BTC traded like a tech stock all year. Last month it stopped. Its 30-day Nasdaq correlation is 0.15, weaker than 97% of the past year. Against the dollar index it hit -0.44, the most inverse in a year. The Fed decides Wednesday. The dollar runs this tape now. Daily chart.
Line chart of BTC's 30-day rolling correlation from October 2025 to September 12, 2026, from daily closes. Correlation with the Nasdaq 100 held between roughly 0.44 and 0.73 for most of the year, then fell to 0.15 by September 12, weaker than 97% of the past year's readings. Correlation with the dollar index hovered near -0.15 for most of the year, then fell to -0.44 by September 12, the most inverse reading in a year.

ALT Line chart of BTC's 30-day rolling correlation from October 2025 to September 12, 2026, from daily closes. Correlation with the Nasdaq 100 held between roughly 0.44 and 0.73 for most of the year, then fell to 0.15 by September 12, weaker than 97% of the past year's readings. Correlation with the dollar index hovered near -0.15 for most of the year, then fell to -0.44 by September 12, the most inverse reading in a year.
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$6.4B of ETH shorts died in 24 hours. The biggest one didn't. Hyperliquid's largest position is a $245M ETH short. Its owner has made $138M on the venue. He's down $36M this month and still short. His liquidation: $3,569, 41% above. Conviction or denial? Hyperliquid map.
Bar chart of Hyperliquid ETH short liquidations by price, from $2,550 to $3,800. Price is at $2,534. $891M of shorts liquidate above price. Two bars dominate: $246M near $3,550, almost all one $245M short with liquidation at $3,569, and $159M near $3,650, a second large short with liquidation at $3,687. Most other price buckets hold under $80M.

ALT Bar chart of Hyperliquid ETH short liquidations by price, from $2,550 to $3,800. Price is at $2,534. $891M of shorts liquidate above price. Two bars dominate: $246M near $3,550, almost all one $245M short with liquidation at $3,569, and $159M near $3,650, a second large short with liquidation at $3,687. Most other price buckets hold under $80M.
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BTC options price Sunday at 14 vol and next Friday at 34. The gap is one afternoon. FOMC lands Wednesday, with new projections. The last eight Fed prints moved BTC a median 1.3% in a day. August's ran 6.6%. The move has a date on it. Vol by expiry.
Bar chart of BTC at-the-money implied volatility by option expiry. Sep 12: 16. Sep 13: 14. Sep 14: 22. Sep 15: 27. Sep 18, marked as the first expiry after FOMC: 34. Sep 25: 34. Implied vol more than doubles once Wednesday's FOMC meeting sits inside the expiry window.

ALT Bar chart of BTC at-the-money implied volatility by option expiry. Sep 12: 16. Sep 13: 14. Sep 14: 22. Sep 15: 27. Sep 18, marked as the first expiry after FOMC: 34. Sep 25: 34. Implied vol more than doubles once Wednesday's FOMC meeting sits inside the expiry window.
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XRP ran 9% in two hours today, then gave most of it back. The map lost $289M of longs and $255M of shorts in 24 hours. 30% of each side, gone. Under $6M of leverage is left within 1% of price. Who reloads first? 1h chart, Binance.
XRP 1-hour candlestick chart on Binance for September 10 and 11 with a liquidation heatmap overlay. Price dips to $1.3140 around 12:00 UTC on September 11, then spikes to $1.4323 in two hours before falling back to about $1.36. Markers note $255M of shorts swept at the spike high and $289M of longs swept at the dip low. After the move, the heatmap around price is dark: the liquidation clusters on both sides near price are gone.

ALT XRP 1-hour candlestick chart on Binance for September 10 and 11 with a liquidation heatmap overlay. Price dips to $1.3140 around 12:00 UTC on September 11, then spikes to $1.4323 in two hours before falling back to about $1.36. Markers note $255M of shorts swept at the spike high and $289M of longs swept at the dip low. After the move, the heatmap around price is dark: the liquidation clusters on both sides near price are gone.
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BTC wiped $3.2B of longs off its map in 24 hours. What's left near price is still 85% long. Short BTC at $76,930. Stop $78,000. Target $75,650. Funding is still positive. Longs are paying to hold the floor. The floor is made of the people standing on it. 4h chart, Binance.
BTC 4h candlestick chart on Binance falling from about $82,300 on September 4 to $76,930 now. Three horizontal levels mark the trade: short entry $76,930, stop $78,000, target $75,650. A horizontal liquidation profile on the right shows long liquidation clusters stacked between $76,150 and $74,950, with the largest rows near $76,000 and $75,650, right where the target sits. Volume shown below.

ALT BTC 4h candlestick chart on Binance falling from about $82,300 on September 4 to $76,930 now. Three horizontal levels mark the trade: short entry $76,930, stop $78,000, target $75,650. A horizontal liquidation profile on the right shows long liquidation clusters stacked between $76,150 and $74,950, with the largest rows near $76,000 and $75,650, right where the target sits. Volume shown below.
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ETH moved 0.4% in 24 hours. Its top traders cut their longs to a 30-day low anyway. From 61% of their book to 56%. Retail didn't move either: 73% of accounts are long. That gap sits in the top 1% of the past year. Which side is wrong? 4h chart, Binance.
Line chart of ETH positioning on Binance, 4h bars over 30 days. The blue line is the share of retail accounts that are net long, holding between 68% and 74% and ending at 73%. The orange line is the share of top-trader position notional that is long, ranging 56% to 65%. After a dashed vertical line marking the September 10 CPI print, the orange line drops from 61% to 56%, a 30-day low marked by a dashed horizontal line. The gap between the two lines is the widest of the window.

ALT Line chart of ETH positioning on Binance, 4h bars over 30 days. The blue line is the share of retail accounts that are net long, holding between 68% and 74% and ending at 73%. The orange line is the share of top-trader position notional that is long, ranging 56% to 65%. After a dashed vertical line marking the September 10 CPI print, the orange line drops from 61% to 56%, a 30-day low marked by a dashed horizontal line. The gap between the two lines is the widest of the window.
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Today's CPI hour cost BTC 1.24%. The other eight prints this year never cost more than 0.2%. A day later, those eight: up 6, down 2. Worst -1.2%, best +3.8%. Eight hours in, half the dip is bought. Same pattern, or the print that breaks it? 15m chart, Binance
15 minute BTC chart on Binance covering the last 26 hours. Price drifts down from about $78,550, then a dashed vertical line marks the CPI release at 12:30 UTC, where a large red candle drops from the dashed pre-CPI level at $77,825 to a low near $76,634. Price recovers through the afternoon to $77,223, still below the pre-CPI level.

ALT 15 minute BTC chart on Binance covering the last 26 hours. Price drifts down from about $78,550, then a dashed vertical line marks the CPI release at 12:30 UTC, where a large red candle drops from the dashed pre-CPI level at $77,825 to a low near $76,634. Price recovers through the afternoon to $77,223, still below the pre-CPI level.
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Short BNB at $709. Stop $725. Target $680. $186M of longs liquidate within 5% below price. The first short cluster waits at $762. Retail added longs every day of the drop from $781. Top traders cut theirs. The magnet is below. 4h chart, Binance.
BNB 4h candlestick chart on Binance. Price fell from a September 5 high of 781 dollars to 709. A liquidation profile on the right edge shows long liquidation clusters stacked from 700 dollars down to 668, the largest band near 695, and no short clusters until 762. Three dashed levels are marked: entry at 709, stop at 725, target at 680.

ALT BNB 4h candlestick chart on Binance. Price fell from a September 5 high of 781 dollars to 709. A liquidation profile on the right edge shows long liquidation clusters stacked from 700 dollars down to 668, the largest band near 695, and no short clusters until 762. Three dashed levels are marked: entry at 709, stop at 725, target at 680.
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SOL liquidated $565M of longs in 24 hours. Another $565M sits within 3% of price, stacked between $99 and $100. The same number again. Shorts within 3% hold $64M. One flush cleared a quarter of the long side. The next one is already loaded. 4h chart, Binance.
SOL 4h candlestick chart on Binance covering two weeks, price at 101 dollars. A liquidation profile on the right edge shows a dense wall of long liquidation levels between 97 and 100 dollars, peaking just under 99.50 where the largest row sits, marked as 565 million dollars of longs within 3 percent of price. Short liquidation levels are stacked higher, from 105 up to 111 dollars.

ALT SOL 4h candlestick chart on Binance covering two weeks, price at 101 dollars. A liquidation profile on the right edge shows a dense wall of long liquidation levels between 97 and 100 dollars, peaking just under 99.50 where the largest row sits, marked as 565 million dollars of longs within 3 percent of price. Short liquidation levels are stacked higher, from 105 up to 111 dollars.
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ETH is back under its 200-week average. $2,478 against $2,517. Fifth slip in three years. All four times before, ETH was higher 13 weeks later. Median +36%. Worst +9%. But two of the four first fell another 19% or more. Buy the floor, or the dip below it? 1w chart, Binance.
Weekly ETH candlestick chart on Binance from mid-2023 to September 2026 with the 200-week moving average drawn as a line near $2,508. The last price tag shows $2,478, just under the line. Arrows mark the four earlier weeks ETH closed below the average: September 2023, thirteen weeks later +36%. February 2025, +15%. June 2025, +72%. January 2026, +9%.

ALT Weekly ETH candlestick chart on Binance from mid-2023 to September 2026 with the 200-week moving average drawn as a line near $2,508. The last price tag shows $2,478, just under the line. Arrows mark the four earlier weeks ETH closed below the average: September 2023, thirteen weeks later +36%. February 2025, +15%. June 2025, +72%. January 2026, +9%.
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$2.7M. That's every new short opened on DOGE in 24 hours. Over the same day, $106M of longs got liquidated and traders opened $76M of fresh ones. Binance top traders sit 78% long. Price fell 3% anyway. Nobody wants the short side. 15m chart, Binance.
DOGE 15-minute chart on Binance covering the last 24 hours. Price grinds down from about 0.091 dollars to 0.087, a 3% fall, with the steepest drop after 13:00 UTC. A lower pane shows open interest climbing from 687M dollars to a peak of 717M into early afternoon, then flushing to 658M by 21:00 UTC as longs are liquidated.

ALT DOGE 15-minute chart on Binance covering the last 24 hours. Price grinds down from about 0.091 dollars to 0.087, a 3% fall, with the steepest drop after 13:00 UTC. A lower pane shows open interest climbing from 687M dollars to a peak of 717M into early afternoon, then flushing to 658M by 21:00 UTC as longs are liquidated.
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ETH spent two weeks inside a 5.1% band. Options now price a 4.7% move in three days. Every daily close since August 26 landed between $2,392 and $2,514. Friday's CPI sits inside those three days. One of these two markets is about to be wrong. 1d chart, Binance.
ETH daily candlestick chart on Binance, early August to September 9. Price jumped from about 1,900 dollars to 2,500 in mid August, then traded sideways for two weeks. A shaded zone marks the last 14 daily closes between 2,392 and 2,514 dollars, a 5.1 percent band. Dashed lines mark the range options price by Saturday 08:00 UTC: 2,625 dollars above and 2,391 below, about 4.7 percent either way from the current 2,496.

ALT ETH daily candlestick chart on Binance, early August to September 9. Price jumped from about 1,900 dollars to 2,500 in mid August, then traded sideways for two weeks. A shaded zone marks the last 14 daily closes between 2,392 and 2,514 dollars, a 5.1 percent band. Dashed lines mark the range options price by Saturday 08:00 UTC: 2,625 dollars above and 2,391 below, about 4.7 percent either way from the current 2,496.

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Within 1% of BTC sit $533M of shorts and $25M of longs. Long at $79,600. Stop $78,100. Target $82,000. $2.3B of shorts stack between entry and target. Funding is flat. The long side never got crowded. Who's still short into that? 4h chart, Binance.
4-hour BTC candlestick chart, Binance, September 1 to 9, price near $79,600. A liquidation profile on the right edge shows shorts stacked from $79,750 up to $84,000, densest between $81,000 and $83,000, and a shelf of longs from $77,500 down to $75,000 with the largest bucket at $76,000. Three marked levels: entry $79,600, stop $78,100, target $82,000.

ALT 4-hour BTC candlestick chart, Binance, September 1 to 9, price near $79,600. A liquidation profile on the right edge shows shorts stacked from $79,750 up to $84,000, densest between $81,000 and $83,000, and a shelf of longs from $77,500 down to $75,000 with the largest bucket at $76,000. Three marked levels: entry $79,600, stop $78,100, target $82,000.
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$2.2B of BTC options expire Friday at 08:00 UTC. August CPI prints at 12:30. The week's biggest expiry settles four and a half hours before the number. The first expiry after the print prices a 3.8% BTC move. Today's prices 0.6%. Who's unhedged Friday afternoon? Deribit.
Two-pane bar chart of Deribit BTC option expiries, Wednesday September 9 to Friday September 18. Top pane, the one-sigma move priced by each expiry: 0.6% by Wednesday, 2.1% by Thursday, 2.8% by Friday, 3.8% by Saturday (marked as the first expiry after CPI), 6.3% by September 18. Bottom pane, notional expiring: 498 million dollars Wednesday, 141 million Thursday, 2.2 billion Friday (marked: settles 08:00 UTC, CPI prints 12:30), 499 million Saturday, 1 billion September 18.

ALT Two-pane bar chart of Deribit BTC option expiries, Wednesday September 9 to Friday September 18. Top pane, the one-sigma move priced by each expiry: 0.6% by Wednesday, 2.1% by Thursday, 2.8% by Friday, 3.8% by Saturday (marked as the first expiry after CPI), 6.3% by September 18. Bottom pane, notional expiring: 498 million dollars Wednesday, 141 million Thursday, 2.2 billion Friday (marked: settles 08:00 UTC, CPI prints 12:30), 499 million Saturday, 1 billion September 18.
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ETH's two biggest shorts are down $37M. And they're the safe ones. They hold $353M on Hyperliquid. Liquidation starts at $3,582, 44% above price. The two biggest longs hold $208M. One dies at $2,377, 4% below. At 25x. Who gets hunted first? Daily chart.
ETH daily candlestick chart from mid-May to September 8, price at $2,484. Four dashed levels mark the liquidation prices of the largest tracked Hyperliquid ETH positions: $3,736 where a $115M short liquidates and $3,582 where a $238M short liquidates, both far above the entire six-month price range; $2,377 where a $96M long at 25x leverage liquidates, just below current price; and $2,178 where a $112M long liquidates, inside the recent range.

ALT ETH daily candlestick chart from mid-May to September 8, price at $2,484. Four dashed levels mark the liquidation prices of the largest tracked Hyperliquid ETH positions: $3,736 where a $115M short liquidates and $3,582 where a $238M short liquidates, both far above the entire six-month price range; $2,377 where a $96M long at 25x leverage liquidates, just below current price; and $2,178 where a $112M long liquidates, inside the recent range.
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BTC has stopped trading like the Nasdaq. 30-day correlation: 0.73 last November. 0.12 today. Lower than 98% of the past year. The dollar took its place: -0.33 and deepening. Your Nasdaq hedge stopped working. Daily closes.
Line chart of BTC's 30-day correlation with the Nasdaq 100 and the dollar index, September 2025 to September 2026, from daily closes. The Nasdaq line peaks at 0.73 in November 2025 and slides to 0.12 now, its low for the period. The dollar index line drifts below zero for most of the year and ends at -0.33, its most negative point of the period.

ALT Line chart of BTC's 30-day correlation with the Nasdaq 100 and the dollar index, September 2025 to September 2026, from daily closes. The Nasdaq line peaks at 0.73 in November 2025 and slides to 0.12 now, its low for the period. The dollar index line drifts below zero for most of the year and ends at -0.33, its most negative point of the period.
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XRP liquidated $97M of longs in 24 hours. The leverage left near price is still 82% long. Short XRP at $1.389. Stop $1.410. Target $1.346. $44M of longs stack between $1.365 and $1.345. Above, nothing liquidates until $1.442. The fuel is all below. 4h chart, Binance.
XRP 4h candlestick chart on Binance, price near $1.39. A liquidation profile on the right edge shows long liquidations stacked below price from $1.38 down to $1.30, largest cluster near $1.345, and almost nothing above until $1.44 to $1.50. Three marked levels: short entry $1.389, stop $1.410, target $1.346.

ALT XRP 4h candlestick chart on Binance, price near $1.39. A liquidation profile on the right edge shows long liquidations stacked below price from $1.38 down to $1.30, largest cluster near $1.345, and almost nothing above until $1.44 to $1.50. Three marked levels: short entry $1.389, stop $1.410, target $1.346.
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