People often ask me: why would you make another prediction market? The answer is we aren't. We're building a new primitive that unlocks markets Kalshi and Polymarket could only dream about. Every truth, in every language, in real time. Regional sport, local politics, weekend golf scrambles, celebrity culture, 3rd world finance. Millions of questions that no listing team could serve and no market maker could price now available to the world.

Today, @meleemarkets will set a new record for notional volume on a prediction market. I will place $10 on a combo that pays 1,000,000:1, generating $10M in notional volume in a single transaction. This trade will take 1 minute to execute, making the annualized volume on Melee $5.1 trillion, or $14B per day.

this reads like a terminal entry you would find in a fallout game

The first tradeable parimutuel mechanism is live on @solana. 24/7 crypto price markets go live in 1 hour. Get ready to build your Melee Score 👇

big month

Melee’s Beta is live. We are about to see a Pumpfun moment for prediction markets: a new season of consumer crypto where creators can rally traders, surface truth and earn fees simply by asking viral questions. If you haven’t been paying attention, now’s the time to start.

everyone on melee makes more money: - traders lock in a payout floor that only goes up - creators earn on every trade in their markets - LPs earn passive yield through vaults all of the value middlemen used to extract goes back to the people actually using the platform

3 double espresso no lunch

"bro wat is pmm?" An explanation of @meleemarkets Parimutuel Market Maker, in (very) simple terms. 🧵

Earn more on Melee. We ran the same $10,000 bet for the World Cup's Argentina vs Egypt. Kalshi paid out $13,699. Melee paid out $20,428. Same bet, same game, 49% more.

What we are building is special. Solana may not yet see it. The world may not yet believe it. But we know it. And we will prove it to you.

I'm excited to share the litepaper for the Parimutuel Market Maker, a new market structure for permissionless prediction markets. I encourage you to visit the site linked below and read it in full, or bookmark it to read later. Here's a brief summary: The PMM is a parimutuel market at its base with dynamic pricing curves on top of each outcome. These curves dynamically change the cost of entering an outcome in the parimutuel market, and guarantee users a minimum return they'll receive if correct at the time of entry, a first for parimutuels. PMM markets can: 1. Bootstrap liquidity and odds for any market 2. Trade live during the event 3. Not require a subsidy to be liquid A parimutuel market is used as the base of the market to bootstrap liquidity and odds. This requires no sophisticated understanding of market structure, only the intuitive understanding of paying X to win Y if correct. There is no separation of liquidity providers and users. Every new buy simultaneously gives the user the directional exposure they want and provides liquidity to the market like a parimutuel, increasing the total capacity of the market. This means markets can start small and grow in capacity as they grow in popularity without needing to deposit money into a pool or onboard market makers. The dynamic curves on each outcome change the cost of buying into an outcome based on the relative demand for that outcome. If more users want to buy outcome A than outcome B, the price of outcome A will rise and B will fall. When a user buys an outcome, they are given a minimum return floor that guarantees their minimum payout if correct. This floor is only a minimum, and can grow throughout the market as more liquidity enters opposing outcomes. If a user buys in at 50% odds and holds through the outcome dropping to 25%, their minimum return will rise as new buyers increase the value of their claim on counterparty pools. If their outcome resolves as correct, they will receive a higher payout than the one they bought in at as a reward for providing liquidity through volatility. A user's payout is a combination of the directional exposure they have in an outcome and the rewards they accumulate by holding through volatility. Ratcheting returns incentivize liquidity to enter a market and hold through volatile periods. If a market has sufficient growth or volatility, a user who provided liquidity in both outcomes can see their payout for both rise and be profitable no matter which outcome occurs. This structure allows creators or liquidity providers to seed markets without being structurally disadvantaged. In testing, popular markets with volatile odds like short term price markets or sports can have a positive expected value for the earliest users, providing a clear path to liquid markets. Why not use an existing market structure? Orderbooks are the dominant market structure for prediction markets, and work well for popular events. The world cup has plentiful data on each team, making it possible for market makers to provide deep, liquid markets. As the data available for an event decreases, market makers become less able to confidently provide liquidity to the market. In an extreme example, a soccer game between friends, there is no data available about either team, making it impossible for an external market maker to provide liquidity. To begin a permissionless market, there must be a way for unsophisticated users to initialize odds and liquidity. Parimutuels bootstrap odds and liquidity with ease. Money can be placed in each outcome pool, and the ratio of dollars in each outcome sets the odds. Though parimutuels initialize markets well, they must be closed for trading before an event begins. The payout a user is promised is not locked until the market closes, as new money entering their outcome decreases their ownership over the counterparty pools. While a parimutuel can start a market, it cannot provide the dynamic trading experience required for prediction markets. AMMs solve liquidity for the long-tail of tokens by making it profitable to passively provide liquidity to tokens, but don't work in prediction markets. The LP in a prediction market will hold only valueless tokens at resolution, meaning the fees they collect must be greater than the LP itself to make the LPs whole again. This is fine if the market creator has an external incentive to make the market, like to aggregate information or for marketing, but is not sustainable for a creator-made market economy to flourish. The PMM allows creators to make markets of any topic while giving a structural advantage to being the first liquidity in the market. Markets can start with any amount of initial liquidity, large or small, and scale as the interest in the market grows. This gives creators the tools necessary to cheaply experiment with new market types to find what markets are most interesting to their audience. With the proper tools in place, permissionless markets will expand to serve every niche at the scale of the internet. No centralized team can match the breadth of topics nor out distribute a decentralized network of creators. In the age of the internet, decentralized creation has beat curation every time. Prediction markets are no exception. I encourage you to read the full litepaper. If you're interested to learn more or get an early look at the Melee platform, please dm me or drop a comment and I can reach out!

Today, we introduce the PMM. A new liquidity primitive that bootstraps prediction markets from first dollar and the first significant update to parimutuel systems in 160 years. Permissionless prediction markets will become a trillion-dollar category. The PMM is the market structure that gets them there. I am incredibly proud of the Melee team for building the PMM from zero to one in just six months. Special shoutout to @NickPreszler and @zen_llama for the creativity and grit that made this possible. We will look back on this as prediction markets’ AMM moment.

How this feels to trade on is truly unique. Watching your position’s value passively grow and accumulate rewards as the market trades is a paradigm shift. Countless hours have gone into designing the rewards mechanics of the PMM. It’s been the most challenging and rewarding endeavor I’ve ever worked on. The PMM pays what are essential liquidity rewards for simply being in the market. Rather than requiring a secondary party to bootstrap and market make, the parimutuel model lets us reward participants for simply holding their positions. This creates a system where LPs are traders, and the traders are the LPs. Whether you want to interact as a passive or active participant, express an opinion or stay hedged, everyone in the market benefits from being counterparty to everyone else. It’s some kind of magical UX when the market moves against you temporarily and you see your position directly reward you for diamond handing. Simultaneously getting more valuable as the risk of holding goes it up the market adjusts to new information. Believing in something truly pays, and the freedom to move feels like an opportunity to stay ahead of the crowd and make money as others converge on your beliefs. Being able to do things like buy a hedged position and then consolidate it into a winner as the market evolves and coming away with a larger position for doing it, or being rewarded exponentially when your team makes a comeback, it adds a whole new dimension the the way prediction markets feel to use. The experiences the PMM enables is one of a kind, its flexibility enables Melee to power countless different market types, and we can’t wait to show you all what we have in store.

the past six months ive watched @itsmaximilian, @perryjsmith, @kaitrias, @NickPreszler, @zen_llama and the rest of the team sacrifice every day to make this a reality early mornings, late nights, weekends, it doesn’t matter melee is inevitable

ridiculous that there is not a single shawarma place open before 11am what am i supposed to do man? do i just wait outside until they open like some kind of fiend???

Back in 2004, no one believed young adults would prefer watching videos from random people online over MTV. Then a couple guys invented YouTube. Melee is about to do the same thing for markets.

thank you x team for fixing the timeline but now every time i send a dm on this app it crashes

> wake up > 1 line with @YouKnowEno > shisha with @simonmolitor alright, time to get out of bed