HOW TO GRADE JACK BUTCHER’S CREDITS
What ~13K sales tell us + some admittedly dubious price guesses
If you’re just tuning in...
Jack launched an open edition through X Money
You sent $8, include an ETH address & the transaction ID became the seed for one Credit
The ID becomes four 8×8 CMYK grids, payment time selects the layers & literal 8s register visually
Final supply: 122,154 Credits
Each Credit is a complete artwork, but collectors can also burn 80 to assemble one Statement
Statement assembly opens eight days after launch with a maximum possible supply of 1,526
━━ WHERE THINGS STAND ━━
When I last checked, OpenSea had indexed:
▷ 60,865 of 122,154 Credits
▷ 12,621 sales
▷ 507Ξ volume
▷ 0.0318Ξ floor
Less than half has arrived, so this is very early price discovery
OpenSea ranks are basically useless while indexing continues
Grade the traits, not the current rank
━━ MARKET SIGNALS ━━
EIGHTS are the clearest rarity signal
▷ Five Eights: 1
▷ Four: 26
▷ Three: 398
▷ Two: 4,238
▷ One: 27,996
▷ None: 89,495
The first ~13K sales show a clean price ladder:
▷ Four Eights: 1.50Ξ median
▷ Three: 0.28Ξ
▷ Two: 0.062Ξ
▷ One: 0.0353Ξ
▷ None: 0.035Ξ
The Five-Eights one-of-one is unlisted with a 4.5 WETH offer
Three Four-Eights sales have cleared at 1Ξ, 1.5Ξ & 1.81Ξ
One means little financially so far
Two gets attention
Three gets serious
Four or Five is trophy territory
Outside EIGHTS, two traits show a repeatable premium:
▷ Extreme Weight: 0.068Ξ median, 1.02% supply
▷ Loose Print: 0.058Ξ median, 0.80% supply
Four Plates / full CMYK looks great, but its 0.037Ξ median is barely above the broad 0.0353Ξ market
━━ MY GRADING SCALE ━━
S+ | Five Eights
The one-of-one
S | Four Eights
Only 26 exist
A | Three Eights
398 exist with early sales reaching 0.8Ξ
B | Two Eights, Extreme or Loose
Stack two and I’d consider moving it up a grade
C | Drift, CMYK or a genuinely great composition
COMMON | Zero or One Eight with common Print and Weight traits
Still complete artworks & still raw material for Statements
Visual quality matters inside every tier
━━ SPECULATION ━━
This is unreliable, probably wrong & obviously the fun part
My short-term guess is the common floor gets messier before it gets cleaner
Another ~61,300 Credits must arrive, so commons could hit 0.02Ξ–0.03Ξ as large allocations land
Then Statement assembly becomes the counterforce
At a 0.0318Ξ floor, acquiring 80 Credits costs roughly 2.54Ξ (~$7,000) before gas
If collectors want Statements, cheap Credits become raw material
My admittedly optimistic ranges once distribution settles, assembly opens, and the quest to collect 80 grows:
▷ Commons: 0.05Ξ–0.10Ξ
▷ Two Eights: 0.10Ξ–0.20Ξ
▷ Extreme or Loose: 0.15Ξ–0.25Ξ
▷ Three Eights: 0.50Ξ–1Ξ+
▷ Four Eights: 2Ξ–5Ξ+
▷ Five Eights: wherever one determined collector decides it belongs
The Five already has a 4.5 WETH offer
Since everything revolves around 8, someone will surely try to manufacture an 8Ξ or 8.88Ξ headline
Statements are harder to guess
With an 80-Credit replacement cost near 2.54Ξ, a 3Ξ–5Ξ opening conversation feels obvious
But original participants could have acquired 80 Credits for only $640
Some will think in replacement cost, others in cost basis
That gap should create absolute chaos when assembly opens
So it honestly could be that I’m being way too conservative on such an iconic and historic collection
My bull case is the market splits into three lanes:
▷ Commons priced around Statement demand
▷ Rare Credits priced as standalone art
▷ Statements priced as the scarce assembled layer
The bear case is simple
Supply overwhelms buyers, too few burn 80 & prices drift toward the original $8 entry, but I doubt that happens
Way too early to know where it settles
But the first receipts are already telling us where collectors are looking
Good luck everyone, and have fun collecting these beauties