Co-founder and chief economist of MacroBusiness.com.au. Interested in all things economic & financial. Catch my interviews on YouTube @leithvo

Melbourne, Australia
I have an impersonator. Please note that posts from @Leithivo are fake.
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Leith van Onselen retweeted
“Tony Burke claims it's 'absurd' to suggest Australia is a ‘mass immigration’ country. It's a George Costanza moment from Seinfeld: it's not a lie if you believe it.” 👇 dailymail.com/news/article-1… #auspol
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Leith van Onselen retweeted
Tony Burke claims it’s ‘absurd’ to say ‘Australia is a nation of mass migration’. In 1998 the ABS forecast the population in 2051 would land between 23.5m & 26.4m. It went above 28m in June this year, 25 years before it was forecast to hit 23.5m. Why? Because of mass migration.
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Never thought I would see the day but old mate Abul Rizvi says there are good points to One Nation’s immigration policy. One of the main architects of Australia’s current immigration settings.
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We are sliding toward a dark place increasingly swiftly. It's the most unsurprising thing to see the growing backlash against the political establishment across the developed world result in government pushing for more control over what we see and hear.
On the day that Labor's social media laws are being debated in the Senate, they have just tabled a bunch of amendments that: - give the eSafety Commissioner the power to summons people* - make them take an oath and answer all questions - removes the protection against self-incrimination - if you don't comply you can be fined $364,000 (1000 penalty units) sent to jail for 12 months *if you are a journalist you are exempt.
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Highest level of per capita migration by far, worst per capita growth since comparable records began. This is what economic and policy failure looks like. *In fairness the pandemic artificially boosted the average Abbott/Turnbull/Morrison growth rate
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Leith van Onselen retweeted
Noah says "Aging, rather mechanically, creates a burden for young people, because you have more retirees who have to be supported by each worker, either through taxes or through family support." But that's not true. The share of the population not working and being economically burdensome on others is lower than ever, because we start and finish work later in life. fresheconomicthinking.com/p/…
In the spirit of Acemoglu criticisms, I decide to criticize Acemoglu's paper on fertility and long-term growth! noahpinion.blog/p/economists…
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Leith van Onselen retweeted
Rizvi has regularly insulted others who use NPLT arrivals data as a leading indicator of net overseas migration. And now he is doing the same thing. So now it's not misleading? Weird
NPLT for March 26 surprisingly high 40,400 despite tightening of offshore student visa policy from Oct/Nov. Suggests NOM remaining above 300k for both 2025 & 25-26. Will Treasury upwardly revise its NOM forecasts in tonight’s Budget? Will govt now commit to actively managing NOM?
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Net long term and permanent arrivals on a rolling 12 month basis charted against in growth in asking rents YoY from Cotality (lagged 3 months). Speaks for itself really.
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Replying to @21networks
@leithvo has covered this issue extensively over the years and was recently interviewed by SBS on this topic. Link to that segment below. There are also all manner of articles on this by Leith at Macrobusiness.com.au If they are looking for something more mainstream to share, I recommend this report from KPMG which covers the balance of housing supply and demand. kpmg.com/au/en/insights/econ… They conclude that even prior to Covid we were already not building enough homes by quite a large margin, this divergence between their analysis and say those of various Treasury's is due to the fact that they factor in changing household demographics, while others overwhelmingly do not. I hope that proves to be assistance. piped.video/watch?v=JPQAymfq…
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Leith van Onselen retweeted
Yes supply needs to be increased that’s the denominator, it’s slow moving and faces headwinds from far too much bureaucracy, high costs and now higher interest rates. But there’s the numerator, demand in the form of population growth - if the pandemic showed us anything you can move that quite quickly should you desire to do so.
There’s a strong link between increases in housing supply and rent growth. When dwelling completions rise relative to population increases, rent growth tends to ease.
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Leith van Onselen retweeted
This is a completely reasonable position yet I can't imagine anyone from the major political parties saying something like this, let alone making an argument to changes our immigration policies to something resembling this.
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Leith van Onselen retweeted
Compare @leithvo’s answer to the Director of the ANU Migration Hub Professor, Alan Gamlen. He doesn’t have one. He calls you stupid, appeals to his authority, and puts up a straw-man argument. Alan, we 51.5% of our population was either born overseas or has a parent born overseas. We have the highest immigration in the OECD. People are imagining things. This isn’t normal.
Australia's recent migration surge is unprecedented. It's changing our country and way of life.
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Leith van Onselen retweeted
Wow! Mask off moment for the woke lefties at the Universities re migration. Essentially fuck what the average voter wants on the migration debate and they’re glad big business has money and power to sway the public conversation to keep net migration high. Maybe the should ask themselves WHY big business likes high migration because I’ll tell them. It adds to more supply of labour which pushes down wages and there’s no need for big business to innovate or change to compete and grab market share if there’s just more people to sell their products too. It’s Heaps funny what people in politics will say when they think only people that agree with them are listening. It’s exactly what Abul Rizvi did when confessing he ramped up migration himself in the early 00’s against the public’s wishes AND the property industry does the exact same thing on their podcasts about screwing renters and fucking everybody that isn’t an investor.
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Without overseas migration Sydney would have a shrinking population. Now lets say in a decade a new estate is being built, it needs roads, schools, hospitals and other infrastructure. The vast majority of the cost of that infrastructure would be attributed by Treasury to the migrants who expanded the population and drove its construction, right? No. It gets attributed across the entire population and the actual migrant share is reduced based on the duration of their total expected time in Australia. So the vast majority of a rail line out to a suburb that wouldn't need one without migration is attributed to the existing populace. This is why the modelled benefits of migration by Treasury dont actually hold water. They dont hold up to basic logical scrutiny. Far more on this in detail from @leithvo linked below. macrobusiness.com.au/2024/06…
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Leith van Onselen retweeted
Have a listen. One of these people understands energy. One is captured by an ideology, and is incapable of processing new information that challenges their priors. Make your mind which is which.
COALSPLAIN: Gerard Holland of the Page Research Centre coal-splained to hard left labor Senator Michelle Ananda-Rajah why coal is the cheapest form of energy. She did not like it.
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Leith van Onselen retweeted
Wasn’t the government essentially able to stop migration straight away during the pandemic? Why couldn’t they therefore control things more than they did once the borders re-open? They issue visas, everyone who comes to the country has to pass through passport control.
Angus Taylor says on @abc730 that boom in NOM in 22-23 had nothing to do with policy settings in place at May 2022 Election. Labor was slow to tighten but to suggest they could have tightened fast enough to stop a massive boom in 22-23 is just nonsense. Taylor taking us for mugs.
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Leith van Onselen retweeted
Replying to @RizviAbul
Why do you attack anyone with an opinion on migration and attack any political party other than the one in power that got people so resentful towards migration?
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