Updates and analysis on the Levant and Geopolitics as a whole. All opinions are my own, RT and Quote Tweets do not mean endorsement
Bint Jbeil, Lebanon
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My geopolitical predictions and analysis for 2026:
1. 110 years after Sykes-Picot we are facing a new project called the United Abrahamic States with its goal of partitioning existing countries based on sectarian and ethnic lines. The project is based on Israeli hegemony through occupation of land and natural resources.
2. Uprisings in Syria that will do more then spark annexation talks, a alawite state on the coast a durzi state in the south and a Kurdish state in the north. The momentum of annexation will spread to other countries forcing unusual alliances to form.
3. A youth movement in the Middle East. Leadership changes in Bahrain and Jordan. Hussein ibn Abdullah will be crowned king. Turkey will have a new president.
4. The rivalry between the UAE and Saudi Arabia will reach Saudi Arabia, MBS will face his biggest challenges internally after the death of Salman, and we may see a Ritz Carlton 2.0
5. 3 governments in Yemen
6. Attempts at destabilizing the regime in Egypt with fingers pointed towards the Muslim brotherhood. Protests and chants form but in my opinion won’t succeed. The deployment of the Egyptian military and its navy across Africa.
7. Nuclear and Intercontinental Iran.
8. New governments in Lebanon and Palestine pave the way for reform.
9. Without stating the obvious there is no such thing as a ceasefire.
10. Geological and financial crisis worldwide.
Leaving this post here to revisit throughout the year. These are just predictions of the Middle East based on analysis.
1) We will use the word “replaced” more than word “elected” when it comes to leadership across the middle east. We will find it hard to distinguish between revolutions and coups. Families that were in power before will resurface in the news in countries such as Iraq, Egypt, Libya, Palestine and yes even Syria.
2) The hysteria that the Muslim world used in regard to Wilayat Al Fakih will now shift to the ideology of the Muslim Brotherhood especially in Egypt and Jordan.
3) Unfortunately the same images that we saw in Beirut and the Dahya we could see in Sanaa Yemen.
4) The existential threat that the factions in Gaza used to launch October 7th will be used to launch a similar operation in the West Bank.
5) Iran will face its biggest test internally and will lead to it exerting its force externally.
6) Repeat of True Promise but this time in Lebanon.
7) After a brief scare of civil war adversaries in Lebanon and Palestine will put differences aside and rule together.
8) The prisoners that were promised to be released from Palestine will be released including Al Bargouthi.
9) Fist fights turn into hand shakes between Iran and the gulf countries.
10) The war in Lebanon in certain areas isn’t over.
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According to Israeli analysts Netanyahu might launch strikes against Iran before the Israeli elections, particularly if his numbers begin to drop.
He'll calculate that it won't defeat Iran, but it could defeat his election rivals.
Right on cue…
Iran has proposed seven-day plan to the US through Qatar, Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi says.
“If the necessary conditions are met, the Strait [of Hormuz] can be reopened and normal maritime passage restored within seven days,” he says, adding that the “timeline will start as soon as the United States accept this plan. Implementation of the plan must occur within 4-5 days of the timeline and on day 6 the strait will be open”
“The actions that the United States should take are not new. They are all already in the MOU."
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Baarachit ❤️ we will rebuild.
Israeli forces detonate displaced Lebanese homes in the town of Baraachit, southern Lebanon.
Follow: t.me/PressTV
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Right on cue…
Iran has proposed seven-day plan to the US through Qatar, Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi says.
“If the necessary conditions are met, the Strait [of Hormuz] can be reopened and normal maritime passage restored within seven days,” he says, adding that the “timeline will start as soon as the United States accept this plan. Implementation of the plan must occur within 4-5 days of the timeline and on day 6 the strait will be open”
“The actions that the United States should take are not new. They are all already in the MOU."
The status quo isn’t sustainable on any of the fronts.
The Israelis would prefer to reopen the war in Iran especially ahead of the elections, or maintain the economic pressure and return to the no peace no war mantra.
The Trump administration would prefer a deal ahead of the midterm elections, however a short term deal that does not include the nuclear program is considered a failure and admittance that financial relief is dependent on opening the strait directly contradicts the Trump administrations claim of the US control and effectively would be considered a massive concession that leads to a strategic loss.
Iran and its allies in Lebanon, Palestine, Yemen and Iraq also prefer a deal but under the right conditions. A deal that would permanently end the war while not only safeguarding additional human life but provide financial incentives to rebuild is the obvious choice. However Iran and its allies insistence on a deal must be according to the 7 conditions or else it too feels that it would have a historic opportunity of reshaping the region and would blunder it through concessions, which is why the insistence on Hormuz is important to maintain leverage in the event of a betrayal as we saw in May and June.
Theoretically is a deal possible-sure but is it likely? I’m not sure because each position directly contradicts the other party and each has at this stage a position in which no one can declare victory or surrender. The timeline is short according to the economical, meteorological, and political developments that the conclusion of the flood will happen in October.
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Hate to say I told you so but….
Under the orders of Donald Trump, Iraqi Prime Minister Ali Al Zaidi has decided to implement a blockade on Iran by land, sea and air.
In the coming hours, the Zaydi government is expected to make drastic decisions against Iran. This is reportedly due to Zaydi receiving a call from Witkow, and being angered by the Iraqi government's failure to comply with Trump's decisions against Iran.
🚨🚨🚨🚨🚨🚨🚨🚨
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The status quo isn’t sustainable on any of the fronts.
The Israelis would prefer to reopen the war in Iran especially ahead of the elections, or maintain the economic pressure and return to the no peace no war mantra.
The Trump administration would prefer a deal ahead of the midterm elections, however a short term deal that does not include the nuclear program is considered a failure and admittance that financial relief is dependent on opening the strait directly contradicts the Trump administrations claim of the US control and effectively would be considered a massive concession that leads to a strategic loss.
Iran and its allies in Lebanon, Palestine, Yemen and Iraq also prefer a deal but under the right conditions. A deal that would permanently end the war while not only safeguarding additional human life but provide financial incentives to rebuild is the obvious choice. However Iran and its allies insistence on a deal must be according to the 7 conditions or else it too feels that it would have a historic opportunity of reshaping the region and would blunder it through concessions, which is why the insistence on Hormuz is important to maintain leverage in the event of a betrayal as we saw in May and June.
Theoretically is a deal possible-sure but is it likely? I’m not sure because each position directly contradicts the other party and each has at this stage a position in which no one can declare victory or surrender. The timeline is short according to the economical, meteorological, and political developments that the conclusion of the flood will happen in October.
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The Najafi airport has now banned flights from Iran complying with the US order. The civil authority in Iraq has suspended airline ticket sales to Iran until further notice.
The largest Shia country in the world is prevented from visiting the tomb of its 1st Imam. The religious authorities in Najaf can not remain silent on this matter.
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As much as this moment should be ridiculed it should also be taken with seriousness and caution.
The Israeli build their military power first and foremost on intel, and covert warfare that paves the way for kinetic strikes. They have done this through every war and conflict since their artificial inception.
The Starlink prop is intended to as a message as if to stay the equipment that you thought you had removed we will try or have succeed in redistributing in your country.
The consistent messaging from Netanyahu regarding what he labeled as an overthrow of the regime and it only being a matter of time with defections signals that he intends to activate cells within and outside of Irans borders to create chaos with what presumably would accompany an Arial campaign geared at targeting the infrastructure and assassinations.
Vigilance is necessary and I’m certain and confident the proper authorities and branches within the Islamic Republic are aware and ready for the challenges ahead.
Israel's delegation went to the Iran's delegation to give them a Starlink as a STUNT from Netanyahu's United Nation's speech
He was IGNORED and walked off.
ZERO RESPECT
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