A list of things that I think will happen soon in the deep tech space / in general after drinking too much coffee today:
The time of non-silicon / conventional computing is upon us.
There will be a massive influx of capital into computing platforms that are either radically different, or else, use existing mature platforms in novel ways. I would say adiabatic / reversible computing like
@VaireHQ @rodolfor, probabilistic / thermodynamic asics like
@extropic @beffjezos, silicon photonics like
@LightmatterCo and others. Why?
Moore's law is petering out in various ways, but more simply the clock speed of compute flat-lined a long long time ago. A silicon transistor is like a tiny current amplifier, and there is a maximum refresh rate beyond which the amplifer gain is below unity. That, and the chemistry of the charge depletion zone means the electrons are always bouncing around, causing heat, and indeed thermal transport and clock speeds are two limiting factors on compute density. More generally, however, is that probabilistic-based AI models running on deterministic finite gate logic is a fundamental mismatch. If you wanted to e.g. implement energy based models, there is a far far more elegant and intuitive way of implementing this by leveraging the physics of a system to represent the energy landscape directly.
Civilization will do everything it can to maximize compute density across all metrics - volumetric, weight, energy, etc. The fastest implementations likely leverage existing CMOS / silicon fab tech but use the same things in completely new ways.
Biotech is not even 1% started
Biological systems are by far the most advanced technological platform in the known universe, something that has been optimized over billions of years in parallelized evolutionary algorithms. Biology is the strong-form of nanotech - human beings unpack via self-assembling molecular turing-complete computers that can take something smaller than a grain of sand and grow it into a physical form factory that has 100x the performance capabilities of any known robot, or any known AI model, in versatility and adaptability. Even a trivial example like insects represents a kind of robot that humanity is an unimaginably far distance from being able to design from scratch, but this distance is massively compressed in the era of AI.
The limit on the speed of development in this area is fundamentally data acquisition through more and more modalities across the biological spectrum. Transcriptomics and sequencing do not give a complete picture - things like light sheet microscopy (
@loicaroyer ), raman scattering (
@Precigenetics), and other optical methods that can provide volumetric time-resolved 4D datasets on living biological systems are the lynchpin in reverse-engineering this branch of nanotech, and large-scale automated biology factories, like Gingko Bioworks (
@jrkelly), need to produce several internets-worth of training data to decode biology.
Things like therapeutics, peptides, cancer vaccines, and so on are the highest value but only first wave of applications of biotech. Biotech is a general technology - it is the most dense and versatile form of robotics imaginable, the most energy and resource efficient means of manufacturing, and there is really nothing in physical law that says you cannot grow a car, a building, a factory via biological nanotech.
AI Labs will become Everything Companies
Anthropic and OpenAI will massively expand into all areas in which AI has high leverage, into things like self-driving robotic laboratories for material sciences, biological discovery, but even further - into manufacturing, metallurgy, design and simulations. One month's revenue can king-make them as the best-funded player in any one of those categories. We think it is wild that Jeff Bezos could raise $12B to build Prometheus, the vertically integrate design and fabrication engine. This is probably four weeks of revenue for Anthropic in 2027. By 2028 I would not be surprised if frontier labs are planning to vertically integrating the entire techno industrial stack, from raw minerals extraction, refining, chip production, to space programs and rocket designs. It will not be humans designing and implementing these systems, all the capital pressure in the universe will be on removing humans from the loop in any of these domains to accelerate the volume of compute being brought online.
Robotics and Manufacturing will produce a generalized API to the physical world
We think it is amazing that an ai agent can tool-call notion or slack, or now click around on a screen and debug a browser. Consider now if that same agent could order 100 tons of raw materials and transform this into a house, an apartment block, a functioning one-off multi-ton casting press, and so on. The strong form of robotics as applied to manufacturing means that humanity and machine intelligence both will have a software-defined API to the physical world that will unleash a tidal wave of abundance that is beyond imaginable.
It is convenient to have something summarize your emails, it is something else when the cost of every physical good falls to the marginal cost of energy required to produce it, and in general, everything will decline to the cost floor of energy.