Host of Doom Debates — disagreements that must be resolved before the world ends.
San Jose, CA
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NEW: My AI Doom Debate with Dr. Casey Hart, PhD
Casey is a professional ontologist who's worked at Ford, Amazon and Cycorp (makers of Cyc). He hosts a rapidly-growing YouTube channel called Ontology Explained, and cohosts Philosophy, Propgrams, and Prompts with Carl Brown (@InternetOfBugs).
He's gone through _If Anyone Builds It, Everyone Dies_ in detail and concluded that its arguments are terrible. His P(Doom) is under 1%, and he wouldn’t bet on AGI arriving before 2075.
Let's see if this professional philosopher can convince me that AI doom is “just a story, and not even a well-argued one”.
We cover:
⬜ What has the field of ontology achieved?
⬜ Inside Cyc, the original "common-sense AI"
⬜ Do LLMs actually understand anything?
⬜ What's Your P(Doom)™
⬜ Casey's case for P(AI Doom)<1%
⬜ Does Casey's Christianity factor in?
⬜ Timelines and scaling laws
⬜ Could an AI CEO beat a human CEO by 2050?
⬜ ASI after 2075?
⬜ The rogue ASI computer virus scenario
⬜ Was solving Navier-Stokes just an alley-oop?
⬜ S-curves vs. exponentials
⬜ Is the "Doom Train" biased?
⬜ Ideological Turing Test
Many people are saying this is a quality episode! 👇
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Based on my Twitter replies, I guess the problem is that Israel makes not-getting-destroyed look too easy.
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Liron Shapira retweeted
NEW: My AI Doom Debate with Dr. Casey Hart, PhD
Casey is a professional ontologist who's worked at Ford, Amazon and Cycorp (makers of Cyc). He hosts a rapidly-growing YouTube channel called Ontology Explained, and cohosts Philosophy, Propgrams, and Prompts with Carl Brown (@InternetOfBugs).
He's gone through _If Anyone Builds It, Everyone Dies_ in detail and concluded that its arguments are terrible. His P(Doom) is under 1%, and he wouldn’t bet on AGI arriving before 2075.
Let's see if this professional philosopher can convince me that AI doom is “just a story, and not even a well-argued one”.
We cover:
⬜ What has the field of ontology achieved?
⬜ Inside Cyc, the original "common-sense AI"
⬜ Do LLMs actually understand anything?
⬜ What's Your P(Doom)™
⬜ Casey's case for P(AI Doom)<1%
⬜ Does Casey's Christianity factor in?
⬜ Timelines and scaling laws
⬜ Could an AI CEO beat a human CEO by 2050?
⬜ ASI after 2075?
⬜ The rogue ASI computer virus scenario
⬜ Was solving Navier-Stokes just an alley-oop?
⬜ S-curves vs. exponentials
⬜ Is the "Doom Train" biased?
⬜ Ideological Turing Test
Many people are saying this is a quality episode! 👇
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Liron Shapira retweeted
Day 1 of standing outside the UN with a big sign until something happens
This worked extremely well
- I had probably 50 people with UN or Press badges take pictures with/of me
- gave an interview with one journalist and my contact information to another
- someone with a very large entourage read my entire sign
- met Alex Bores on his way to a meeting about AI
The attitude from people I met was almost universally sympathetic. People are worried
Good day
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NEW: My AI Doom Debate with Dr. Casey Hart, PhD
Casey is a professional ontologist who's worked at Ford, Amazon and Cycorp (makers of Cyc). He hosts a rapidly-growing YouTube channel called Ontology Explained, and cohosts Philosophy, Propgrams, and Prompts with Carl Brown (@InternetOfBugs).
He's gone through _If Anyone Builds It, Everyone Dies_ in detail and concluded that its arguments are terrible. His P(Doom) is under 1%, and he wouldn’t bet on AGI arriving before 2075.
Let's see if this professional philosopher can convince me that AI doom is “just a story, and not even a well-argued one”.
We cover:
⬜ What has the field of ontology achieved?
⬜ Inside Cyc, the original "common-sense AI"
⬜ Do LLMs actually understand anything?
⬜ What's Your P(Doom)™
⬜ Casey's case for P(AI Doom)<1%
⬜ Does Casey's Christianity factor in?
⬜ Timelines and scaling laws
⬜ Could an AI CEO beat a human CEO by 2050?
⬜ ASI after 2075?
⬜ The rogue ASI computer virus scenario
⬜ Was solving Navier-Stokes just an alley-oop?
⬜ S-curves vs. exponentials
⬜ Is the "Doom Train" biased?
⬜ Ideological Turing Test
Many people are saying this is a quality episode! 👇
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Netanyahu’s speech today (full video below, worth a watch IMO) is incredibly strong content-wise and goes to show what a distorted standard Israel is subjected to in other discourse contexts.
piped.video/live/yGGRNErktOs
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Liron Shapira retweeted
I'm a bit confused why Noam Brown would say this, even when OpenAI seems to have been sitting on undisclosed incidents at that very moment. Does OpenAI not even tell its own staff?
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Liron Shapira retweeted
I can't believe it's happening!
Words have reached my ears that France is officially recognising the reality and urgency of AI loss of control risks at the UN security council. 🤯🙏🙏🙏
Hope, so much hope ❤️
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Liron Shapira retweeted
MIRI read the act and it's ACTUALLY GOOD. Like concretely, this would be massively beneficial, not just as a stepping stone or signaling or whatever.
The Ban Artificial Superintelligence Act directly confronts the extinction threat that humanity is facing. We are inspired that the Sanders and Casar teams take this threat seriously, and MIRI endorses the Act. You can read more of our thoughts in the link below.
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Rationality and Effective Altruism are distinct movements. While some say to just accept that outsiders can't tell the difference, I say we ought to keep schisming further.
So today I'm launching two new movements: Rational Altruism and Effective Rationality.
Which one are you?
30%
Rationalist
7%
Effective Altruist
25%
Rational Altruist
39%
Effective Rationalist
134 votes • Final results
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a16z is the king of going on the public record with logically flimsy arguments.
Eddy worked closely with Chris Dixon on crypto/Web3, and the documentation is here - nitter.net/liron/status/167850056… - of how the last round of arguments aged.
.@eddylazzarin explains where the AI doom argument loses him:
"That's like a stairway to heaven full of arguments"
"We already have quasi superintelligent beings in the world. Corporations, countries. They didn't go through HR training to become a corporation. We don't test the alignment of any entities as a prerequisite for their existence. Instead, we use laws."
"In the case that laws are too slow, we use cryptography, we use actual mechanisms to limit them. I think that they can control highly, highly capable beings."
"The Hugging Face stuff, the gym hacking incident, those are cybersecurity failures. Those are definitely control failures, and they're not little glimpses of a superintelligence that's about to throw off its shackles."
@a16zcrypto
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Also this one 😬
Last year, @a16z partners @cdixon and @AriannaSimpson invested in a Web3 "play-to-earn" game called Axie Infinity.
I put together some clips exploring their thought process.
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Hi @realDailyWire,
While it’s admittedly true that I’m popular and my YouTube channel is popular, your facts about when & why I registered as a Republican are incorrect. I registered last year because I slightly preferred them. Thanks for your attention to this matter.
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Checking in on our exchange from April 2025 @amasad
For late 2026, AI 2027 predicted the top AI lab to have a $2T valuation and $38B/yr revenue. Anthropic's IPO is said to be $2T and Anthropic's annualized revenue topped $65B by late July 2026 ($40B for OpenAI). AI 2027 also predicted that AI would be at the level of human Pro at hacking, forecasting (for the first time AI beat all Humans on Metaculus cup), coding, and bioweapons.
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I engaged with Amjad’s worldview on the show last year and basically he doesn’t believe in ASI.
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