Doesn't help that most people are completely unaware of what's happening in the world right now, or just how close we may be to a serious conflict stretching from Europe all the way to China and possibly beyond. Yet much of the news is treating it like just another ordinary day, as if nothing extraordinary is unfolding around us.
If the Strait of Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb remain seriously disrupted continuously, a reasonable potential timeline could look something like this:
• Days to 2 weeks: Fuel and shipping costs could spike, cargo could be delayed or rerouted, and food prices could begin rising.
• 2–6 weeks: Fuel and fertilizer shortages could become increasingly serious. Import-dependent countries could begin having difficulty obtaining essential supplies.
• 1–3 months: Countries with limited food and fuel reserves could begin experiencing serious shortages and acute food insecurity, particularly those already facing humanitarian crises.
• 3–6 months: The situation could become extremely dangerous if disruptions remain severe. Fertilizer availability during planting seasons becomes critical, while higher fuel costs directly affect farming, transportation and food distribution.
• 6–12+ months: A prolonged disruption could significantly reduce agricultural production and potentially create famine conditions in the most vulnerable countries, particularly if fertilizer shortages affect an entire growing season.
The important thing to understand is that countries don't have to literally "run out of food" for famine to occur.
Food can become unaffordable. Supplies can become unavailable. Transportation can break down. Or food can simply fail to reach the people who need it.
My thoughts
That's why I'm starting the clock here:
GLOBAL FOOD-SECURITY RISK — WEEK 1
September 10–13, 2026
I'm not saying the world is entering famine next week.
The clock is measuring how long these interconnected disruptions remain in place and whether they begin propagating through fuel, fertilizer, transportation and agricultural supply chains.
The next 4–12 weeks could be particularly important.
If the major routes are reopened, bypassed or stabilized, the situation can improve.
But if Hormuz + Bab el-Mandeb + Saudi Arabia's alternative East-West oil route remain severely restricted simultaneously, we could be moving toward a genuinely serious worst-case scenario for global energy and supply chains.
And that's the part that concerns me most.
This isn't just about oil or diesel anymore.
It's about what happens when the fuel required to move everything starts becoming constrained.
Food. Fertilizer. Medical supplies. Consumer goods. Construction materials.
Everything that depends on trucks, ships, agriculture and global logistics ultimately depends on energy.
What we're witnessing right now is something that's difficult to compare with anything most people alive today have ever experienced. 😬 Honestly, I'm getting 2019 vibes, but in a very different way and potentially an even more serious one given the current administration and the circumstances unfolding around us. 🤷♂️
MAGA doesn't like the consequences of their votes
But they'll keep voting for the exact same people