Phd student in political science @Columbia studying voter responses to democratic threat in America.

New York, USA
I am happy to share two pieces of news: For the 2026-2027 academic year. I will join the Litowitz Center for Enlightened Disagreement @KelloggSchool as a postdoc working with @EliJFinkel and Nour Kteily. Then, in Fall 2027, I will join @LSEGovernment as an Assistant Professor. I am incredibly excited about both positions and grateful to friends, family, mentors and co-authors who have helped me along the way. I am excited to be doing more work on strategic voting, democratic norms, field experiments and many other topics. So please reach out if you are Evanston or London (or anywhere else I suppose).
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This looks like a very cool paper that I look forward to reading. Especially the point in the last tweet that the right way to think about the electoral effects of moderation is to consider the counter-factual of a whole party taking a moderate stance and voting accordingly.
New paper with @johnmmurph just conditionally accepted at @apsrjournal: Can people guess how majorities of each party in Congress voted on bills? Mostly yes. Can they guess how their own representatives voted on bills, above what is accounted for by party? Mostly no. 🧵
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Its interesting to watch the parties trying with massively varying degrees of sucess to push losing candidates into backing nominees.
#TexasSenate Rep. Jasmime Crockett (D-TX) says in new interview that the Black community isn't interested in James Talarico. "I personally don't feel like the excitement necessarily exists within the Black community ... I don't feel like they're excited." Link to interview: piped.video/watch?v=U9IAOfzQ…
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This thread makes the good point that (1) some groups within parties prioritize something other than winning general elections and (2) no-one will ever admit their candidates aren't the best bet to beat the other side. Given that, I bet you would get a much more honest answer to the question "what winning probability would you sacrifice to achieve your ideological goals?" than "is your preferred primary candidate really the best bet in the general?"
I’ll have more thoughts on Platnerdammerung and its appalling end later, but I think the macro political significance of it is everyone realizing he was part of a coherent and focused faction that is oriented not at beating the GOP but taking control of the Democratic Party.
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It does seem like a problem that between the house, senate and presidency there is basically nothing citizens of safe districts can do that is relevant to national electoral politics except (1) donate and (2) make headlines that shape the party brand.
I sincerely don’t know how to escape the attention black hole that is New York City, but obviously to the extent you care about policy the outcome of races in Alaska, Texas, Ohio, and Iowa matters a million times more than NYC House primaries. slowboring.com/p/the-narrow-…
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I think "obviously political investigations are a gift to the investigated" is a good sign of democratic resilience since the surge in donations and attention outweighs the minimal legal jeopardy. It will be a bad sign if this stops being true.
NOTUS: Pete Hegseth’s War on Mark Kelly Was a Political Gift “Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth tried to brand Sen. Mark Kelly as ‘seditious’ and moved to strip him of his military rank. It hasn’t worked out that way.” “Democratic strategists say the feud has driven attention and millions in campaign cash toward the Arizona Democrat as he ‘seriously’ considers a 2028 presidential run in what will likely be a crowded field.” notus.org/2028-election/mark…
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This paper makes by far the best argument for the electoral college.
From the latest issue of the QJPS, "Electoral College and Electoral Fraud" by Georgy Egorov and @k_sonin. A thread.
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This is a very strange argument. If there is a 30% fatality virus spreading in the population the public demand for extreme measures will be overwhelming. No one will care about COVID era grudges about public health.
Replying to @asymmetricinfo
You only get one lockdown every 100 years or so. Our public health authorities beclowned themselves and wasted it on a relative nothingburger (for the general population, not the elderly or those with comorbidities), so if/when we get an actual severe pandemic, we’re screwed.
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Why do state parties that routinely lose all their elections not make even cursory attempts to appeal to their state's median voter? There are many plausible answers but not clear what combination of them is most accurate.
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1/ Will voters participate in the primary of a party they oppose to prevent the nomination of a candidate they fear? In a new paper in AJPS with @HayleyCohen, we study crossover voting using surveys and a large field experiment (N=83,902) in the 2024 New Hampshire Republican presidential primary. onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/…
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5/ The encouragement worked. Turnout in the competitive Republican primary increased by about 1.6 percentage points, while turnout in the Democratic primary fell by about 0.5 points. Effects were somewhat smaller among voters living with other Democrats, but effects don’t change by how likely a voter is to support the Democrat in the general election.
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6/ The broader takeaway: By crossing over and backing moderate candidates, voters can lower the stakes of general elections. Voters worried about the future of democracy and confronted with an uncompetitive primary in their own party can further pro-democratic candidates by combining a strategic turnout decision and a sincere vote choice.
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Great thread from @AOD_PhD summarizing our new paper in @PNASNexus. I think a big takeaway is that partisans have strong priors about party leaders and topics that have been litigiated in partisan media, but very weak priors about many other public servants. So someone like Jack Smith, who begins as a relatively anonymous prosecutor, rapidly develops a polarizing public reputation, while not making much of an impact on electoral politics.
New article! @markovitis and I examine how prosecutions of political leaders affect public opinion by studying the valuable case of Trump's criminal prosecution. Key finding: rhetoric from Trump's prosecutor marginally ⬇️ intention of voting for Trump but massively ⬆️ backlash 1/
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That being said, we find that a defense of Trump's prosecution weakly hurt him by damaging his standing among Republicans who were hesistant towards him pre-treatment. So to the extent the prosecution of Trump helped him to consolidate support in the Republican Primary it was probably through his domination of the media environment, not through a "rally around the prosecuted" candidate effect.
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Daniel Markovits retweeted
New article! @markovitis and I examine how prosecutions of political leaders affect public opinion by studying the valuable case of Trump's criminal prosecution. Key finding: rhetoric from Trump's prosecutor marginally ⬇️ intention of voting for Trump but massively ⬆️ backlash 1/
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This is a case where the public opinion literature on democratic norms is very practically useful: voters don't like efforts to rig elections in isolation, even as they won't massively punish candidates who back such proposals in general elections (where many other policies are at stake). Still, "they did it first" is almost certainly the best way for both parties to raise public support for these proposals.
A new POLITICO poll shows California voters prefer keeping an independent line-drawing panel to determine the state’s House seats “by nearly a two-to-one margin” (64%) while only “36% of respondents back returning congressional redistricting authority to state lawmakers
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