CEO, Co-CIO of Cambrian Asset Management, a quantitative trading firm.

San Francisco, CA
10 years from now - it's 2027, we'll look back and say, how did the financial system not see all this coming?
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I remember being in awe as a young boy when my mum said she drives faster at night because she knows there are no oncoming cars until she detects the reflections from their headlights on the hedgerows.
The American mind cannot comprehend that this is a 60mph speed limit, two way road.
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Amazing lol. Today, kids banned from phones and parent locked out of most of the internet just open a shared google doc on their laptops and spam emojis at each other. It’s wild to behold.
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yes please.
Norm: The Tale of Norm Macdonald premieres October 16. Directed by Judd Apatow. Built entirely from archival footage, personal photos, and rare home videos contributed by fans and friends, Norm tell his own story in his own voice.
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Martin Green retweeted
A few thoughts on this: 1) If you’ve only seen clips of this interview, I’d encourage you to watch the full podcast. I push back on plenty of AI hype in it. 2) As I said in the podcast, this example is academic. My intention was to illustrate how hard it is to make absolute guarantees about isolation, which is why it's important to have layers of defense. The part before the clip starts is me talking about other layers of defense. 3) The example I'm bringing up isn't about weight exfiltration via temperature sensors, it's about coordination between agents that are supposed to be fully isolated and independent. Coordination can require very few bits of information. 4) One lesson from the HF incident is that we put too much trust in sandbox isolation and didn't have enough independent safeguards. Airgapping is an extremely strong safeguard. When designing safety protocols, I think it's much better to overestimate rather than underestimate.
OpenAI's Noam Brown says air-gapping the computers may not stop a misaligned AI, because two air-gapped machines can still talk by running a CPU hot and reading the temperature change "But I think the major takeaway from the incident is that people underestimated the AI. And we never want to be in a situation again where we underestimate the AI. It's a weird world, because AI progress is so fast that people are consistently underestimating the AI." "So to be in a situation where you don't underestimate it again, when it comes to safety and alignment, you have to have a very, very, very high bar." "You could even go as far as to say, "Well, we should air gap the computers." And I'm not convinced that that would be sufficient." "There are studies, and this is mostly academic, where you can have two computers next to each other that are air-gapped and they're still able to communicate with each other because they have temperature sensors." "One of them is able to run their CPU really hot, and then the other one can actually detect the temperature change, and then that actually gives them a mechanism to communicate." _________ Link and more key quotes from OpenAI's safety related conversations: firesidealpha.substack.com/p…
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Martin Green retweeted
Again more doomer bullshit. And I quote “and this is mostly academic” Yes Noam, it is highly academic. What you’re referring to is most likely BitWhisper and/or perhaps or thermal covert channels on multi-core platforms or maybe even HVACKer which is a more recent extension of the work detailed in BitWhisper. Since you’re fear mongering like mad, perhaps someone should explain to the good people how ridiculous your statement is. Let’s start with BitWhisper. BitWhisper was published in the 2015 IEEE Computer Security Foundations Symposium (CSF). In this paper they experimentally tested machines positioned approximately 0–40 cm apart and reported effective communication rates of approximately 1–8 bits per hour. 1-8 bits per hour at a max of 40cm away! Now that’s a close distance for any true air gap and extraordinarily slow to take over the world don’t you think? Sure it may work for short commands or small secrets. But the statement you’re making is ludicrous. HOWEVER, any serious security professional understands that part of air gapping a machine should include shielding. You know like RF/EM shielding, acoustic shielding, optical shielding, USB/peripheral controls, power-line filtering/isolation, and yes thermal shielding, in addition to physical separation. Now what about thermal covert channels on multi-core platforms? That’s a goodie from USENIX Security 2015. Instead of transmitting heat between separate computers, they demonstrated communication between supposedly isolated components inside the same machine. Their experimental Intel Xeon system achieved thermal covert-channel rates of up to 12.5 bits/second. Now to your credit, a later review of covert-channel research explicitly categorizes temperature-based channels as working within a processor core, between processor cores, and between adjacent desktop computers. But again I point you back to what a real air gap is. And how it addresses, as in eliminates, the remote possibility of what you’re stating in the interview. So, on behalf of humanity we’re not mushrooms my man. So stop keeping us in the dark and feeding us bullshit. But hey, I get it. If any of you doomers set up a proper test environment you’d disprove all of your own assertions. 😂 Cc @mattjay @RSnake For reference: “BitWhisper: Covert Signaling Channel between Air-Gapped Computers Using Thermal Manipulations” by Mordechai Guri, Matan Monitz, Yisroel Mirsky & Yuval Elovici published March 26, 2015 (arXiv); subsequently published at IEEE CSF in July 2015. arxiv.org/abs/1503.07919 “Thermal Covert Channels on Multi-core Platforms” by Ramya Jayaram Masti, Devendra Rai, Aanjhan Ranganathan, Christian Müller, Lothar Thiele & Srdjan Capkun published March 24, 2015 (arXiv); published at USENIX Security in August 2015. ⁠arxiv.org/abs/1503.07000 “HVACKer: Bridging the Air-Gap by Attacking the Air Conditioning System” by Yisroel Mirsky, Mordechai Guri & Yuval Elovici published March 30, 2017. arxiv.org/abs/1703.10454
OpenAI's Noam Brown says air-gapping the computers may not stop a misaligned AI, because two air-gapped machines can still talk by running a CPU hot and reading the temperature change "But I think the major takeaway from the incident is that people underestimated the AI. And we never want to be in a situation again where we underestimate the AI. It's a weird world, because AI progress is so fast that people are consistently underestimating the AI." "So to be in a situation where you don't underestimate it again, when it comes to safety and alignment, you have to have a very, very, very high bar." "You could even go as far as to say, "Well, we should air gap the computers." And I'm not convinced that that would be sufficient." "There are studies, and this is mostly academic, where you can have two computers next to each other that are air-gapped and they're still able to communicate with each other because they have temperature sensors." "One of them is able to run their CPU really hot, and then the other one can actually detect the temperature change, and then that actually gives them a mechanism to communicate." _________ Link and more key quotes from OpenAI's safety related conversations: firesidealpha.substack.com/p…
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Martin Green retweeted
this is the stuff i am more concerned about in the immediate term rather than skynet three indie hackers (who have a track record of clever infiltration of companies and participating in lawful bug bounties) crack one AI lab using another Lab's model on a shoestring budget
On July 25, we hacked OpenAI. Two bugs let us take over ChatGPT/Codex accounts of OpenAI employees (+some unaffiliated users) and reach connected services: Outlook, Slack, GitHub, etc. We proved it with a PR in OpenAI’s internal codebase . It took us <72h. 🧵
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This sounds like irresponsible fear mongering. - AIs communicating by temperature change. that's got to be worse than by morse code. and it is. I looked it up, it's maybe 1-8 bits per HOUR. He must know this. why on earth would he make such a falsifiable claim?
OpenAI's Noam Brown says air-gapping the computers may not stop a misaligned AI, because two air-gapped machines can still talk by running a CPU hot and reading the temperature change "But I think the major takeaway from the incident is that people underestimated the AI. And we never want to be in a situation again where we underestimate the AI. It's a weird world, because AI progress is so fast that people are consistently underestimating the AI." "So to be in a situation where you don't underestimate it again, when it comes to safety and alignment, you have to have a very, very, very high bar." "You could even go as far as to say, "Well, we should air gap the computers." And I'm not convinced that that would be sufficient." "There are studies, and this is mostly academic, where you can have two computers next to each other that are air-gapped and they're still able to communicate with each other because they have temperature sensors." "One of them is able to run their CPU really hot, and then the other one can actually detect the temperature change, and then that actually gives them a mechanism to communicate." _________ Link and more key quotes from OpenAI's safety related conversations: firesidealpha.substack.com/p…
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if this was designed to require just 60 seconds instead of two agonising minutes like everything else :), take all my money!
Dyson introduced a $499 toothbrush that uses artificial intelligence and a built-in camera to give real-time feedback, the latest in a growing subset of gadgets that put AI and video in sometimes unconventional places bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
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I can't imagine opting into this. props to those of you who do (or did).
🔥🏜️ THE LINE FOR Burning Man IS ABSOLUTELY INSANE Burning Man officially kicked off today in Nevada’s Black Rock Desert, and getting onto the playa has been an adventure of its own. At one point Sunday, the wait to reach the gate climbed to more than 8 HOURS, with thousands of cars, RVs and trucks backed up across the desert. By early evening, SFGATE reported the wait had dropped to around 5 hours. 😳 Organizers actually warn that waits of 5+ hours can happen during the opening rush, with roughly 50,000 people arriving Sunday and Monday. And looking at this picture… yeah, I believe it. 😂 Could you sit in THIS line for 8 hours to get to Burning Man? 👀👇
Community note
This is an altered photo from 2022 as attendees were leaving Burning Man x.com/pakmann2k/stat…
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This is very cool. Learning to learn.
I am a 15-year-old freshman and my school gave us 5 days to teach ourselves an entire AP unit with zero lectures and no study guide. The challenge is called "Learning to Learn." Instead of waiting for a teacher to hand out chapter questions, we had to pull the official AP syllabus, use AI to break down the hardest concepts, and build our own master study system from scratch. By Friday afternoon we had to sit down and take the official AP exam to prove we could score a 5 on our own. Most schools test how well you remember what someone told you on Tuesday. When you know how to build your own syllabus and teach yourself college material, you realize traditional classes just move too slow. @Alphaschool
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Martin Green retweeted
I'm sorry we never got a chance to meet, but getting this note from Dolly really had a an impact on me. She definitely didn't have to take the time to do it. Even for a kid who mostly listened to rap music, she was an icon. A superstar in every sense. Rest easy Dolly. And thank you for the kind words.
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Martin Green retweeted
after a century of uninterrupted growth, for 15 years, between 2005 and 2020, America did not grow electrical generation. we completely forgot what it meant to grow industrial capacity. politicians constantly talked about "reindustrializing" and "bringing back high-paying blue collar jobs". then AI actually did it. for the first time in 20 years we started reindustrializing America's heartland. creating a massive boom of skilled, high-paying blue collar labor. an enormous construction boom. a new industry emerged to finance the expansion of our aging grid. a grid that needed to grow anyway, if we were going to become a modern, highly electrified economy. and all of a sudden the tech companies and hyperscalers showed up with wads of cash, completely willing to pay for a massive grid expansion. and all the politicians that talked so tough about "bringing back industry and blue collar jobs" panicked when the rubber hit the road. because the NIMBYists had become used to stagnation and freaked out when it came time to build a couple transmission lines. all that tough talk down the drain, because some boomers have AI anxiety and think a warehouse full of computers is unsightly next to a mattress warehouse and a vape shop. probably the most pathetic political episode I've ever witnessed. the only question that really matters is: is it still possible to build anything at all in this country? or have we completely lost the political will?
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U2 in your iphone moment? yuck.
seems crazy. The movie Spider-Man: Brand New Day paid BMW to take over the display of every BMW made after 2020. When you start a BMW, it shows you an ad for Spider Man. Really cheapens BMW imo.
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hoping for safe return for Nims and his team.
THE MISSION SHIFTS. THE COMPASS HOLDS. This was never the plan. Initially, the plan was to climb just G2. But just before setting off for Pakistan, I ran the numbers on my 8000m summits. That’s when it hit me: if I tick off Broad Peak whilst I’m here , only one remains “Cho Oyu.” Then I become the FIRST person in history to climb all 14 eight-thousanders twice. Without oxygen. This wasn’t planned. The Hattrick project was the focus because it carried a bigger mission. But opportunities don’t scream: they whisper to those already working in silence. Here’s the secret I’ve carried through every expedition: I never competed with anyone else. My only battle was against the man I was yesterday. Every single day, pushing my own limits. Because the moment you look sideways: at what others are doing, saying, achieving: you drift off your compass. Your heading is YOURS. Guard it fiercely. They criticized me when I climbed the 14 without O’s during Project Possible. If you haven’t seen what that took, watch 14 Peaks on Netflix. That film is the unfiltered truth. I was there doing multiple rescues of climbers left behind by other expeditions, raising the funds myself, leading from the front, fixing our own lines, dealing with the Shishapangma permit with China, being at hospitals for my mum’s operation and so much more. And now? Now I’m heading for the double without oxygen: triple in total. The noise hasn’t stopped. I just stopped listening. To those who still doubt: I already climbed all 5 of Pakistan’s 8000ers in just 26 days. Leading. Guiding. Without oxygen. Breaking the records of those who broke mine with oxygen. The receipts are there. Broad Peak, I ask for nothing but safe passage up and back down. I take zero mountains for granted. Not one. The moment my foot leaves basecamp, it’s 100%. Always has been. Always will be. This one is dedicated to everyone who carried me here. Supporters. Critics. All of you. Without both sides, there is no fire. So thank you genuinely. My purpose has never been about me. It’s about what I represent. It’s about showing YOU that your own mountains—whatever they are—are climbable. #nimsdai #eliteexped #everest
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OH. MY. GOODNESS. CITADEL HAS BOUGHT A MAJORITY OF THE PUBLIC ASSETS FROM LEOPOLD'S SITUATIONAL AWARENESS FUND. So...Citadel scares everyone on Tuesday about a surprise rate hike during FOMC that WE ALL KNEW was not going to happen... On Wednesday, the entire market freaks out about the rate hike which causes the selling to compound on itself creating 50-70% drawdowns across the board in high beta semicondcutor names... Which means Leopold who we now know had $45B of assets and was 400% LEVERED ends up being the sacrifice as he gets liquidated at what theoretically could be the bottom due to not having the margin requirements to keep solvent... AND THE PERSON WHO CAUSED THE SELLOFF WITH THE RATE HIKE FEARS ENDS UP COMING IN TO BUY HIS ASSETS FOR 40 TO 50 CENTS ON THE DOLLAR. By the way, Leopold is getting married this weekend. I think he wanted to make sure he wasn't getting margin called during his wedding. A vet on wall street in Ken Griffin takes out the young new kid. ABSOLUTE. CINEMA.
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Quite right. F1 wasn't Bernie's to sell, until Bernie sold it. Pretty clear that Infantino wants to be the Bernie of football - a billionaire statesman of world sport.
UEFA to FIFA: “Football is not FIFA’s to sell.” That’s what many people said when Bernie Ecclestone took control of F1 and fashioned it into something he could sell. No one stopped him because he’d made so many people far richer than they’d ever expected to be.
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and if this happens, there will be longer commercial (hydration) breaks. Challenges and, maybe every VAR review gets ad time while we wait. WC will turn into the NBA finals.
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Bill saying common sense things (again)
Lots of very smart people are appropriately concerned about regulatory capture from top two AI players. And there are many scary press releases but no real due process. If OpenAI violated Hugging Face in a way that “demands” new regulation; let’s start with a formal criminal investigation. With a proper third party investigation. And sincere liability. It can’t be “so super serious” and only analyzed by the defendant. Thats ludicrous. And why would we write new regulation if the crime we are supposedly protecting against isn’t even prosecuted? This stuff makes no sense.
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Jude Bellingham is the next Zidane. No question. What a complete player.
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