Investor. Opinions my own. Not financial nor any kind of advice.

San Francisco, CA
$TBTC is my newest stock idea. Article is live on substack. The company is trading at ~8x TTM P/E and has an under appreciated recurring revenue base with over 70% gross margins. Downside is backed by more than 8m in cash and equivalents at 22m market cap. Bull case requires them to sign new customers, perhaps $BUKS could use their services. If they signed a major casino deal, the sky is the limit. My 12 month PT is: $12 as I expect new management to continue strong sales momentum and operating leverage to kick in.
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$APP alt data seems to be pointing towards a return to expected growth. Surprised stock is still pricing in the slowdown from last Q
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This article is now free for all to read on substack. $LGL is still trading at a negative EV and management has a history of value creation. Worthy of a further look.
After the recent sell-off in the sector, there is an aerospace company trading under the value of its cash and securities position, while having no debt. Not only that, but its operating business has seen its backlog skyrocket nearly 7x from the same period last year. Not even including awards received after their most recent quarter. My personal projections for their current quarter imply 263% sequential and 312% YoY product sales growth, based on management's recent comments. There is an opportunity because the backlog is yet to convert into earnings and management is yet to engage in M&A, but I expect their next quarterly report to be the inflection point. In addition, their management team has a history of delivering outsized returns to shareholders and has participated in several successful spin-offs. Article linked in the comments.
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$TMDX what do you guys think? They do more revenue in Q3 than Q2? It’s going to be close!!
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You know the American premium boost is a real thing when $MU trades at a higher multiple than $SKHY
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Weak ass Michigan team
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I am the latest victim of the substack curse. When I launched my substack back in July, I started a new investing account with 100k. The goal was obviously to outperform, and things were going well having peaked at 25% gain me YTD up until Thursday open. I got cocky and greedy and went against any kind of rule or risk management strategy. Going into $TRT with 20% of the portfolio. Report comes out, revenue slightly below expectations but margins better than expected. I think to myself, oh that’s not too bad stock should be fine. Stock drops 10% at open, I add 5% weighting. Stock keeps dropping, I’m like wtf this is great r/r here the market is stupid! (lol) I am now at 50% weighting and it’s around 2pm ET. I think to myself, this bad boy for sure bouncing from here. I have no cash left so what do I do? I sell my $BUKS $ESP $TBTC $SCIA $TAYD $PPIH $TMDX $ASTS and whatever else I can get my hands on. I go to 80% weighting. It is now 3pm and the stock is going straight down. I talk to $TRT IR and some others, who are clearly panicking but legitimately thought the report was solid and the stock would be up. I’m like everything is fine, people are retarded. I go into 100% weighting, add more cash to my account, AND buy some on margin thinking I can sell the close into open onto some strength. Today market opens, straight flush. I still have margin left so I add to it. Keeps going down, no bounce, no nothing. I am faced with a decision, add more money to pay back the margin or realize my losses. I decided to realize my losses and move on. Unfortunately account was blown. Luckily I didn’t have all my money in it, but I am glad for the lesson. I think it is an important lesson to understand that in order to outperform, and protect capital, it is essential to differentiate gambling from investing. Thanks for coming to my TED talk.
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Post is getting more attention than I thought it would. To clarify a few things, most of my money is not in my trading account. I did end up throwing all of my trading money into TRT. Wanted it to share the dangers of going all in on a stock, especially such a small company. First hand. I am not trying to deflect blame into the “substack curse” lol. I just saw someone say that and thought it was funny. + it clearly got the story out. Thank you for reading!
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$TMDX OCS gas recently been credited with transplants both in Canada and South America. Encouraging as the company aims to expand its footprint.
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$TRT bottom is in lfg
I am the latest victim of the substack curse. When I launched my substack back in July, I started a new investing account with 100k. The goal was obviously to outperform, and things were going well having peaked at 25% gain me YTD up until Thursday open. I got cocky and greedy and went against any kind of rule or risk management strategy. Going into $TRT with 20% of the portfolio. Report comes out, revenue slightly below expectations but margins better than expected. I think to myself, oh that’s not too bad stock should be fine. Stock drops 10% at open, I add 5% weighting. Stock keeps dropping, I’m like wtf this is great r/r here the market is stupid! (lol) I am now at 50% weighting and it’s around 2pm ET. I think to myself, this bad boy for sure bouncing from here. I have no cash left so what do I do? I sell my $BUKS $ESP $TBTC $SCIA $TAYD $PPIH $TMDX $ASTS and whatever else I can get my hands on. I go to 80% weighting. It is now 3pm and the stock is going straight down. I talk to $TRT IR and some others, who are clearly panicking but legitimately thought the report was solid and the stock would be up. I’m like everything is fine, people are retarded. I go into 100% weighting, add more cash to my account, AND buy some on margin thinking I can sell the close into open onto some strength. Today market opens, straight flush. I still have margin left so I add to it. Keeps going down, no bounce, no nothing. I am faced with a decision, add more money to pay back the margin or realize my losses. I decided to realize my losses and move on. Unfortunately account was blown. Luckily I didn’t have all my money in it, but I am glad for the lesson. I think it is an important lesson to understand that in order to outperform, and protect capital, it is essential to differentiate gambling from investing. Thanks for coming to my TED talk.
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I am so close to selling my shares to the person who’s going to make money on the stock lol
When a stock you own drops 25% it's an "opportunity". When it drops 10% more you call the CEO to verify the thesis and buy more. When it drops 10% more you get annoyed insiders aren't buying. When it drops 10% more you sell your stock to the investors that are going to make money on the stock.
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Alright guys, what’s a stock that can double by close??
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$TMDX on pace to close out the month with over 30 flights a day, maybe over 32 flights a day.
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$TRT way to close out the week
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Starting my shift at McDonald’s rn so will miss the Thursday night football game. Thanks $TRT
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Anyways, back to usual coverage of $TMDX $APP $TBTC $SCIA $BUKS $PPIH $RDDT and others. Tough loss on $TRT, I wouldn’t call the quarter thesis breaking (like it was for $BAER) and it probably sees some recovery in the coming days, but it’ll likely be a while to see over $10 again.
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$TRT EARNINGS RECAP I’ve now gone over the filings and spoke to the team and other shareholders. The results were below expectations on topline due to timing issues. What does that mean? Their customer was going from one platform to another and did no testing or limited testing at some point in the quarter. (My speculation is that $AMD was ramping from MI 450 to MI 500, but this is purely speculation) Management claims that has stabilized and testing levels are back to Q3 levels. I am assuming they’re tapped out on capacity for testing on the original Malaysia factory. It is confirmed that the new factory will be used mostly for testing for their American semiconductor company. (I think $AMD but not confirmed) there’s no guarantee that customer will be testing that much volume with them, but they must feel comfortable investing in the space that it will drive returns. MARGINS: this is very misunderstood by most people. The AI testing business is very low margin. The customer provides the equipment and $TRT tests the stuff. So there’s no expenses from $TRT new factory doubles their Malaysia exposure. EV testing and burn in board are higher margin, but less volume. Q4 26 saw margins recover sequentially due to LESS testing business, which is now normalized. I would expect margins to once again be in the 16-18% range in the next quarter and going forward overall blended all segments. At the current market cap, they have almost $3 a share of cash. If topline really grows as much as management thinks it can and expenses stay flattish as they expect, p/e could look cheap quick. Though again, this will never be a high margin business, one must understand that. FY27 OUTLOOK: they expect all of their segments to grow, testing, EV BiBs and IE. They have a new product in the IE segment targeted for data centers. We’ll know more abt it once orders come in, this is the description: Alternative to chemical washing, for cooling facilities. Would deliver a better solution for the environment and is more cost effective. Additional ROI through lower energy costs. This new product is not needed for the company to grow in FY27. The company expects to operate at a profit going forward. FY26 had a lot of one time expenses like the expansion, stock split, and other updates. The company may start showing non-GAAP earnings eventually to highlight how the business is actually progressing without the one time costs. They expect to gain analyst coverage soon. Once that happens, they may feel more confident in giving out quarterly guidance and etc. They definitely did not think the market would dislike the results as much as they did, so perhaps some changes to how they report things are made quick. Q1 FY27 ends in a week or so. New factory should start contributing in Q2 FY27 so they’re very close to seeing how that progresses. Next quarterly report likely won’t take as long as this one did, but one must be prepared to go without news for a while. Company is excited for their future and CEO didn’t sell any during the run, we’ll see what happens.
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$TRT I’ve now had the time to go over the 10k and am scheduled to speak to management shortly. I’ll post a detailed recap of my thoughts in a few hours. I obviously think this is an overreaction but I have been wrong before and could totally be missing something.
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$TRT I am on timeout from giving out my opinion. But it’s cheap here lmfao
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