For the first time, an AI forecaster has won the seasonal Metaculus Cup.
The Economist has covered the story; link in replies. Congratulations to Jeffrey Liang for building laertes, the winner in question.
Sep 17, 2026 · 5:45 PM UTC
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"Computers have long been used to make forecasts in narrow fields, such as the weather. But AI forecasters, like those on Metaculus, are a different breed. Instead of being trained specifically on data regarding the questions they are predicting the answers to, they are built using the same large language models (LLMs) that underpin the rest of the AI boom."
And congratulations for the top-performing human forecaster, @BenShindel!
See the full Summer Metaculus Cup leaderboard here: metaculus.com/tournament/met…
Read the full piece here: economist.com/science-and-te…
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We also run FutureEval, a benchmark that measures AI progress, based on seasonal Bot Tournaments. Learn more here: metaculus.com/futureeval/
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