AI, Big Data and Elections @fladatacom, @freshtakefla and freshtake.vote. Dev and Adjunct @UF. Hiker of Long Trails. Past @TB_Times, @datapath, @USMC
St Petersburg, FL
- Tweets 4,457
- Following 238
- Followers 1,679
- Likes 378
Much thanks to the PHP2Shell exploit for keeping me up tonight as DNS cuts over to a brand new turnout server. In all, five servers patched, one rebuilt.
1
440
Democrats ended yesterday with a 60,000-vote advantage. Republicans have finally begun to chew on the Democratic lead. While Dems held an 8,300 vote lead in VBM today, it was more than offset by a 14,700-voter GOP IPEV advantage. Dems currently up 54k ballots. Currently D+3.16%.
9
15
69
14,581
Visit our dashboard at freshtake.vote/2026G
2
873
The difference between polling and turnout analysis is that polls are an alchemic projection. Turnout shows what has already occurred. It’s a matter of fact. And there’s not one turnout analyst on this platform that would have predicted what is occurring right now.
5
20
187
61,766
I’m not in the business of making predictions, but if there were ever a perfect storm for Florida Democrats, this is how I would expect it to form.
2
2
35
9,355
3. Democrats continue to turnout a higher percentage of their voters vs Republicans in every single Florida county. Statewide Dems have turned out 14% of their base vs 9% for the GOP. Could be the GOP's tendency to vote late. Could be beef prices. Who knows?
5
9
66
4,387
4. The best I can tell you is that we'll just have to wait and see how Dems perform on Day 3 of IPEV. So far, it's been all gas and no brakes.
2
5
58
2,772
Thank you for your attention to this matter. Visit our dashboard here: freshtake.vote/2026G/index.p…
3
4
35
2,581
2. If I were @FlaDems, I'd be waving that chart in the face of every megadonor in the country right now. Even at a 41%-30% split in the electorate, could you possibly imagine a better set of political circumstances to roll the dice on? Currently D+4.3
5
17
108
5,883
1. Against all odds, Florida Democrats today expanded their vote lead to 60,000. This is pre-COVID turnout in a post-COVID world. This is probably not what @FloridaGOP was anticipating. It may also be the reason why @DemGovs just wired David Jolly $1 million.
51
187
923
50,573
Democrats continue to fight. D+52,000 as of 2:30. 1,000,000 (42.7%) of mail ballots are in.
4
14
86
5,204
Dashboard: freshtake.vote/2026G/index.p…
4
12
1,067