AI, compute governance, and national security @CNASdc | Co-founder of WISE | personal views only

Washington, DC
I'm getting married and will be offline for about a week. I recognize there's no crazier time in AI policy world to be offline, but I'm going to try my best to be present for my family and friends and my new husband. See everyone next week!
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I wrote a Substack post recapping the Zeiss leakage news, why it matters, what other SME chokepoints remain vulnerable (spoiler: Trumpf lasers), and why it's in America and Germany's best interests to close these gaps.
Zeiss advanced optics were one of the most critical chokepoints controlled by the U.S. and allies. This was one of the major reasons China hasn't been able to catch up in EUV yet. Zeiss lenses were presumed by many to be covered by existing U.S/Dutch controls, since Zeiss is an exclusive supplier to ASML. But it seems that this no longer holds. This is no longer a commercial matter but one critical to national security. The U.S. should prioritize efforts to coordinate export controls with Germany to keep Zeiss lenses out of China's hands.
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Unfortunately, it is one of the actually good coffee shop chains in DC. Also every location usually has free tables, and it’s open later than other options I always offer Spot of Tea as an option for similar reasons, but few people take me up on it!
what is up with this tho!!!
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Thought I could have a nice, peaceful commute
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Export controls work. "Export controls just make Chinese companies work harder or catch up" is propaganda ass shite
For those of us who have been arguing for years that China's AI chip production is extremely constrained and Huawei lacks the capacity to fill China's domestic AI compute needs, much less sell to other countries, seeing the Huawei Chairman publicly admit this is very gratifying.
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Michelle Nie retweeted
hm...
For those of us who have been arguing for years that China's AI chip production is extremely constrained and Huawei lacks the capacity to fill China's domestic AI compute needs, much less sell to other countries, seeing the Huawei Chairman publicly admit this is very gratifying.
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Actually “this guy” is one of the foremost experts on this topic. The US does have a say. It has extraordinary leverage over DUV because so much of it is made using US components and knowledge. Also the Dutch should realize they have a stake in safeguarding DUV too. DUV is being used for AI capable chips which train Chinese AI models. China is actively partnering with Russia, the Netherlands’/EU’s biggest security threat, on military AI. Not to mention China has launched cyberattacks and cyber espionage campaigns on the Dutch. It is in the Dutch interest, too, to stop exporting and servicing DUV.
This guy has no idea what he is talking about. Netherlands isn’t the same as US. Dutch do get a say in this. China is massively ramping up DUVi machines. There are so many layers to AI supply chain that these DC based tech restrictions clown types are too dumb to understand.
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Yes, DUV is extremely consequential and it's important to close this loophole. Yes, the US could act unilaterally to prevent further exports of DUV through a lever called the FDPR. And, our allies would view this as a very aggressive action. The bipartisan MATCH Act would require allies to align their SME export controls to ours or face the FDPR. It forces them to take action and gives them a clear timeline and consequences for non-compliance.
CTS co-founder @KonstantinPilz says China makes all its AI chips on Western DUV machines, the US could cut that off tomorrow, and explains why it hasn't: "China is relying entirely on Western machines to make its AI compute. They are not using EUV, which has been banned since 2019, but they are using DUV, the previous generation. China has rapidly ramped up the amount of DUV they are buying, and the US is just not doing anything about that." "If the US wanted to, they could just restrict those exports and China would be making way less AI compute." "Someone goes to policymakers and says, here's my first recommendation, ideally we'd also do this, this, and this. And policymakers are like, oh, maybe we'll talk about the first one." "We've known about DUV for probably several years now. It's just a very slow process to convince people to actually act on it." @techstatecraft
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Michelle Nie retweeted
over the past week, I’ve gotten a lot of questions about what independent AI evaluations should actually look like in practice. what about conflicts of interest between labs and evaluators? will evaluators actually get meaningful access? what if companies just block the publication of unfavorable findings? these are good and important questions. and we shouldn’t assume voluntary arrangements alone will produce the conditions that credible independent evaluation requires. so i’m very excited to see 100+ researchers, evaluators, and experts — including us at @AVERIorg — laying out minimum conditions for embedded evaluation, including: meaningful independence, strong access, transparency / editorial control, protections against retaliation, and a diversity of perspectives and competencies. and we shouldn’t try to incorporate those principles in ad hoc, one-off agreements, policy is critical to standardizing these safeguards across the industry. glad to see @aievalforum leading on putting these principles on paper.
Today, more than 100 leading AI experts endorsed a set of minimum requirements to take seriously AI companies' recent call to embed external evaluators. These evaluators need to be genuinely independent, transparent, and represent a range of expertise areas. They also need to be guaranteed employee-level access and to be protected from retaliation for findings that make companies look bad. We welcome model developers’ recent calls for independent oversight, but it’s what they do next that matters. The labs must be accountable for ensuring these requirements are met, so that the public can have faith in the process and the outcomes. Over the past week, the AI community has debated the appropriate role of external evaluation, including who should do it and on what terms. We may not agree on everything, but there is a lot of common ground. To make embedded evaluations credible, more than 100 experts with varying backgrounds and ideas about AI risk agree in today’s letter that frontier AI developers should: 1. Guarantee embedded evaluators full editorial independence and mitigate conflicts of interest 2. Rely on multiple evaluators with differing viewpoints and areas of expertise 3. Publicly document the terms under which evaluators operate, as well as facilitating permissive publication of methods and findings 4. Shield evaluators from retaliation 5. Grant access equivalent to that of highly privileged employees There is a thriving and growing ecosystem of independent AI evaluators who are advancing this science every day – but we need aligned standards, guaranteed protections, and independent funding. That’s why we created the AI Evaluator Forum. Today we are entering our next phase. We’re launching an open call for new members, collaborators, and independent funding sources to help evaluators meet this moment and demand accountability from developers. Join us in building the evaluator ecosystem. See the public letter here: aievaluatorforum.org/initiat… Learn more at aievaluatorforum.org/path-ah…
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@danielremler and I wrote a piece for @CNASdc about the importance of strengthening, not weakening, export controls ahead of the Xi-Trump summit next week. Amid fears of recent Chinese progress in everything from AI models to DUV — and discussion about a potential framework for US-China cooperation on AI — some will inevitably argue that export controls haven't worked (or are harmful) and should be abandoned. We argue the opposite: export controls are more important than ever and shouldn't be weakened at this critical time.
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In either case, abandoning export controls at such a critical time would be a national security error. It is still in America's interest to strengthen and widen its technological lead over China.
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Great to speak with Louise at @WIRED about US-China dynamics amid discourse about AI cooperation.
I think the US discourse is getting one thing really wrong about China: Beijing is not shrugging off the risks of advanced AI, it just doesn't buy the idea that “cooperation” should start with the US deliberately keeping China behind
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Michelle Nie retweeted
Everyone living in Washington on 9/11 remembers that day. I was in my Pentagon City apartment and heard confused voices on the radio discussing a crash at the World Trade Center. My wife, who was working at a long-term care facility across the street, called me to say something had just happened at the Pentagon. I went up to our roof and watched the five-sided building become engulfed in flames, with hundreds of people running away from it in every direction. Walking across the street to find my wife, we thought first responders might need to evacuate the wounded to beds in the care facility, and I stayed around to help if needed. They never did; more people were killed than injured. Instead, we watched out the window as smoke rose from the Pentagon and on television buildings crumbled. That more attacks never materialized was due in part to the enormous effort the United States mobilized after 9/11. After September 11, most anticipated that terror would spread to malls, sporting events, and other places previously seen as utterly safe. Few thought that America would never again suffer a mass casualty attack. By now, on 25th anniversary of 9/11, we’ve learned some lessons along the way. One is the power of national determination. It’s customary to dwell on the post-9/11 failures – Iraq and Afghanistan, detainee treatment, and so on. But preventing mass casualty attacks after September 11, which America did, is a major accomplishment that required the reorganization and reorientation of U.S. government. That was no obvious or easy task. There were mistakes in the war on terror, but there were heroes and successes too. Another is that allies matter. We saw in the years after 9/11 countries – Canada, for instance – go to war and suffer losses on our behalf. They did it for themselves, but they also did it for us. We will need friends again one day, and we should treat them like partners now. A third is that we abandon American ideals at our own peril. Fear-based policymaking tends to distort fidelity to them, but this weakens rather than intensifies our efforts. The United States is strongest when we fight in ways that accord with our deepest values. A final lesson of 9/11 is about national unity. It was natural for the moment to fade, and for the fear and resolve that united Americans to one day yield in favor of internal squabbles. But this anniversary should remind us that our enemies are outside and not within, that we are compatriots and not belligerents, and that more that pulls us together than drives us apart. Unity seems like a quaint notion in these polarized days. But we suffer as a country in its absence. Nothing will erase the scars of 9/11 from our national memory, and nothing ever should. But moves toward greater unity would represent a fitting commemoration of that terrible day.
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Zeiss advanced optics were one of the most critical chokepoints controlled by the U.S. and allies. This was one of the major reasons China hasn't been able to catch up in EUV yet. Zeiss lenses were presumed by many to be covered by existing U.S/Dutch controls, since Zeiss is an exclusive supplier to ASML. But it seems that this no longer holds. This is no longer a commercial matter but one critical to national security. The U.S. should prioritize efforts to coordinate export controls with Germany to keep Zeiss lenses out of China's hands.
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Michelle Nie retweeted
I don't think any team of 3 government regulators could have done as good an investigation with only 6 days on campus as the team from METR/Redwood did. The point of government regulation, though, is that you can get a lot more than 6 days on campus (& more than 3 people)
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