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State of Mind
Ten million people have watched a Stanford lecturer accidentally destroy the entire public speaking coaching industry. He filmed the lecture once in October 2014 and it has been on YouTube ever since. Speaking coaches charge two thousand dollars a session to teach a third of what he covered in one hour for free. His name is Matt Abrahams. He is a lecturer at the Stanford Graduate School of Business and the coach who has trained thousands of Silicon Valley founders on how to answer questions live. Every year at Stanford's Alumni Weekend, he gives the same lecture called "Think Fast, Talk Smart." His entire framework fits on a napkin. Anxiety is not a bug. Greet it. Do not perform. Have a conversation. Never open with an apology. Use What, So What, Now What when your brain freezes. Problem, Solution, Benefit for a pitch. Never end with "any questions?" That last rule alone has probably cost the pitch coaching industry a hundred million dollars. "Ninety percent of the words that will decide your career are not written down in advance." That is the actual opening line of the lecture. Abrahams built the entire Stanford elective on the sentence. Founders spend $50,000 on pitch coaches and freeze the moment the investor asks a follow-up question. Engineers walk into performance reviews having rehearsed every accomplishment and blank on the one behavioral question that decides the promotion. The lecture is free on Stanford's YouTube channel. Abrahams's book "Think Faster, Talk Smarter" is under twenty dollars. Abrahams still teaches at Stanford. Almost none of the ten million viewers have used the three-step frame when put on the spot. The frame is free. The willingness to actually use it the next time someone puts you on the spot is the entire edge.
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A renter paying $2,500 a month for 30 years puts $900,000 into the landlord's pocket and finishes the term owning nothing. Zero equity, zero appreciation, zero tax deduction on any of it. A homeowner with the same $2,500 mortgage payment on a $400,000 property finishes 30 years with a fully paid house worth roughly $970,000 at 3 percent annual appreciation. Net worth impact: positive $970,000 versus zero. Same monthly cash out, same neighborhood, million dollar swing on a spreadsheet nobody in high school teaches. The single most important number in your financial life is not how much you earn. It is which of the four categories your income falls into: labor, interest, dividends, or capital gains. Rent goes to someone else's fourth category. Wages come from your first. Chaoshengzhe teaches a foundational course in matrix theory drawing on the MIT curriculum. The lectures are free on YouTube. He walks through matrix operations and invertibility, the linear algebra every serious real estate portfolio runs on. Same math a REIT uses to allocate $30 billion across 800 buildings at the same time. The lecture is free. The willingness to move a dollar from someone else's category to your own is the entire fortune.
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Casinos ran blackjack on one guarantee: the house edge was a law of nature no mathematician could touch. In 1958 a UCLA professor sat down at a Las Vegas table with a ten dollar bet and a little printed card, and the table laughed at him for twenty minutes. Ed Thorp had just finished his PhD and had never gambled. He was playing straight off the card, and it made him smarter than every gambler at the table. He left knowing they did not understand their own game. He moved to MIT and taught himself to program the IBM 704, a refrigerator sized machine that served thirty New England universities. The math came back clean. There was a system, and it won. He wanted it published fast, so he found Claude Shannon and got five minutes with him at lunch. Shannon read it and changed one thing, the title, from A Winning Strategy for Blackjack to A Favorable Strategy for 21. When Thorp presented the paper he expected fifty mathematicians. Three hundred people came, many of them in pinky rings and sunglasses and tropical shirts in the middle of winter. Before he told the world how to do it, he went back and proved it himself. One weekend, about twenty hours at the table, eleven thousand dollars. That is a hundred and ten thousand in today's money. The card in his hand was legal the whole time. He just read the rules better than the people who wrote them.
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A billionaire sat in a room for 42 minutes and listed every psychological trick that makes people lose money. for free. the finance industry has spent thirty years pretending this recording does not exist. he didn't sell a course. he didn't write a newsletter. he sat in a chair at 96 years old and explained why brilliant people do the dumbest things with their money. then he explained why they will keep doing it. MBA programs charge $200,000 to teach behavioral finance. he covered 25 biases in one sitting. some of them are still not in any curriculum. he gave the entire framework away on camera. the part nobody talks about: he called crypto antisocial. he said index funds will crush most managers. he said private equity is full of wretched excess. he said all of this in a room full of people who manage money for a living. nobody argued. a hedge fund analyst at a top firm told me this is the first thing they send to anyone who joins the desk. not a book. not a model. a 42-minute video of a 96-year-old man explaining why you will be wrong and how to recognize it before it costs you everything. 40 million people have heard his name. almost none of them have watched him explain the 25 ways their own brain is working against them. The lecture is free. He died the following year. The answer is in this video.
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An MIT professor offered his class a coin flip: win $125 or lose $100. Most students said no. Then he proved refusing was the smart move, and it explains why you're bad with money. The bet looks great on paper. Flip a coin, win $125 or lose $100. On average, you make money. Economists call that a more than fair bet. Most of the room still wanted nothing to do with it. They weren't being dumb. Their answer actually made sense. Here's why. You don't experience money as numbers on a spreadsheet. What matters is what that money does for you. Losing $100 you already have can hurt more than gaining another $125 helps. Then he changed the question. Imagine you were forced to take the bet unless you paid to escape it. How much would you give up? Using the standard math, the answer came out to $43. People would rather lose $43 for certain than face a bet that's actually tilted in their favor. That's risk aversion. The value of gaining money and the pain of losing it aren't perfectly symmetrical. And it's part of the reason insurance exists. You accept a small guaranteed cost today to remove the possibility of a much bigger loss tomorrow, even when that loss is statistically unlikely. Once you see it, you notice it everywhere. Insurance premiums, warranties, bets you refuse. Sometimes you're not paying for better odds. You're paying to remove an outcome you can't afford. The answer is in this video.
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In 1990, Donald Trump owed $3.4 billion and went on NBC acting like nothing was happening. He's 44. Sitting in Trump Tower. The Taj Mahal just opened for $1 billion, funded almost entirely by junk bonds at 14% interest. Revenue projections are already falling short. Contractors aren't getting paid. He owes money to over 70 banks. $800 million of it he'd personally guaranteed. He doesn't flinch. A year earlier he was on the cover of every magazine in New York. He owned a yacht, an airline, three casinos, the Plaza Hotel. Forbes pegged his net worth at $1.7 billion. By summer 1990, regulators warned of "the possibility of a complete financial collapse of the Trump Organization." The Taj Mahal filed for bankruptcy in 1991. Trump Castle and Trump Plaza followed in 1992. The Plaza Hotel filed the same year. His yacht was sold. The airline shut down. The banks put him on a personal budget. The New York Post ran the headline "UH-OH!" His father sent a lawyer to one of his casinos to buy $3.5 million in chips. Not to gamble. To inject emergency cash. The Casino Control Commission fined them $30,000 for the illegal loan. The banks could have buried him. They didn't. They calculated that the name on the building was worth more than the debt behind it. So they restructured. He gave up equity, sold assets, and clawed back deal by deal. In 1995 he declared a $916 million loss on a single tax return. By 2004 he was hosting the most watched show on television. By 2016 he was President of the United States. The man on this tape is $3.4 billion underwater and talking like he owns the room. That's either delusion or the reason he survived.
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Harvard needs 8% return every year just to keep the lights on. 5% spending plus 3% inflation. Miss that number and buildings stop, professors leave, research dies. 40% of the operating budget comes from one portfolio. Not tuition. Not grants. One fund. Jake Xia manages that fund's public markets. He also teaches the math behind it at MIT for free. One of the top five most-watched courses on OpenCourseWare. Millions of views. Almost nobody changed how they invest. Every year he hands students a blank page. Build a portfolio. No rules. Someone writes 100% Apple. Someone writes rare coins. Confident picks. Same blind spot, every time. Not one student asks the only question that matters: how much goes in each position. They all pick what to buy. Nobody sizes it. Sizing is the entire job. The answer won the Nobel Prize. It's called the efficient frontier. Xia draws it on the board in under a minute. Five equations sit underneath it. Compound growth. Present value. The geometric mean. The Rule of 72. Real return. All older than any bank on earth. All fit on a napkin. None behind a paywall. A "guaranteed 5% bond" during 4% inflation is a 1% return. The industry doesn't hide this. It just hopes you never run the equation yourself. The lecture is free. The napkin is free. The only thing that costs anything is not knowing The answer is in this video.
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In February 2007 Harry Macklowe bought 7 Manhattan skyscrapers for $6.8 billion. He put in $50 million of his own money. Not bad buildings. Some of the best addresses in New York. The man who sold them to him was the one who was scared. The seller was Blackstone. The same week, Steve Schwarzman had just won Sam Zell's office empire, Equity Office, for $39 billion including debt, after a bidding war with Vornado that pushed him to $55.50 a share. The moment he owned it, he started selling it. The logic on the other side was not stupid. Manhattan rents were rising, towers like these almost never come up for sale, and money was cheap. Macklowe borrowed about $7 billion on short-term loans due in February 2008, betting rents would keep climbing faster than the loans came due. They did not. By early 2008 credit had frozen and he could not refinance the $5.8 billion he owed Deutsche Bank. He lost all 7 buildings. The GM Building, which he had owned since 2003 and pledged against the debt, went to Boston Properties for about $2.8 billion. The footage is Schwarzman telling his side. He says he was so scared that they were winning that he could not sleep, because Blackstone could have walked away with about $500 million, the break fee at the time. So he decided to sell half of what he bought the day he bought it. Imagine buying $40 billion of real estate one day, he says, and selling $20 billion of it the same day. I did that because I was scared, because I hate risk. His first rule, he says, is do not lose money. I have bought something from a person who was clearly in a hurry to sell it, and told myself they just did not see what I saw. Sometimes that was true. The times it was not cost more than the times it was. You meet a Schwarzman more often than you think. The flipper selling a house 3 months after buying it. The early employee unloading shares the day they vest. The founder who raises and sells secondary in the same round. Their hurry is information, and it is usually worth more than the listing. Almost nobody asks why the seller wants out so fast.
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Two horses. One has a 20% chance of winning, the other 80%. A bookie knows the real odds. The crowd doesn't. $10,000 lands on one horse, $50,000 on the other. Inside an MIT classroom, a professor asks one question: how does the bookie guarantee he never loses? He ignores what he knows. Sets the odds not by probability but by how the money fell. Five to one, matching the market. First horse wins, he pays $60,000 and collected $60,000. Second horse wins, same thing. Zero exposure. Fee on top. Riskless profit. That's not gambling. That's pricing. The same math prices every option contract on Wall Street. Black-Scholes, replicating portfolios, hedging. It starts with one insight: you don't need to predict the future. You structure the trade so the future doesn't matter. The professor builds it step by step. Take any derivative. Find a combination of stock and cash that replicates the pay-off exactly. Hold both sides. Risk cancels. You keep the spread. He pulls up Bloomberg with IBM call options and shows it in real numbers. Prices a digital option using nothing but two calls at different strikes. No model needed. Just replication. Traders do this thousands of times a day. Enter a contract, hedge it on the exchange, walk away with a fee. No opinion on direction. Just structure. The entire derivatives market works this way. Not prediction. Replication. The people who understood that distinction first built the biggest fortunes in finance.
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The hedge fund manager who taught Michael Burry to pick stocks accidentally destroyed the mutual fund industry in a free Talks at Google lecture on the two-line formula that turned $10,000 into $8.3 million. His fund charged 2 and 20. He gave the strategy away in a $12 book. Almost no one paying a financial advisor 1 percent of their retirement has finished the lecture. His name is Joel Greenblatt. He founded Gotham Capital in 1985 and compounded roughly 40 percent a year for twenty consecutive years. He returned all outside capital in 1994 because his edge was too crowded to scale. He has been teaching value investing at Columbia Business School every year since 1996. Michael Burry, the doctor who shorted the housing bubble in "The Big Short", learned to pick stocks from Greenblatt's 1997 book. The 55-minute clip in this video is Greenblatt at Google in 2017 walking a room of engineers through his Magic Formula. The whole framework fits on one napkin. Rank every stock in the S&P 500 by return on invested capital, highest first. Then rank every stock by earnings yield, highest first. Sum the two rankings. Buy the top twenty. Hold for one year. Sell. Repeat. That single formula would have beaten the S&P 500 by roughly 14 percent a year over the last three decades if any retail investor had actually followed it. "Cheap and good beats expensive and average. Every time." That is Joel Greenblatt at Google in 2017. He has repeated the sentence in every public talk since. Almost no retail investor buying Nvidia at $140 has heard it. Every hedge fund on Wall Street pays $500,000-a-year analysts to backtest more sophisticated versions of the same equation. Every financial advisor in America charges you 1 percent of your account per year to underperform it. The Talks at Google video is free on YouTube. "The Little Book That Beats the Market" is twelve dollars on Amazon. Almost none of the millions who watched have ever run the two-line formula on their own portfolio. The framework is free. The willingness to actually run it before your next stock pick, retirement rebalance, or brokerage transfer is the entire edge.
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A hedge fund returned 50% a year for ten years straight. In 2005 the man who ran it sat on a desk at Columbia and taught the entire method to 30 students for free. No bank, no fund, no business school has ever promoted the recording. His name is Joel Greenblatt. He ran Gotham Capital from 1985 to 1994. Almost nobody sustains 50% annually for a single year. He did it for ten. Then in 1995 he returned all outside capital, kept running his own money, and walked into a classroom. The first lecture is about corners of the market where the usual buyers are structurally forced to sell regardless of price. Spinoffs, restructurings, situations where an index fund must dump a stock the day it leaves the index. He does not teach a screener or a formula. He teaches why these corners exist at all, and why they keep existing after everybody knows about them. The uncomfortable part is what he says about diversification. He held very few positions. It runs directly against everything the business school teaches two floors down. Columbia charges $80K a year in tuition. The man upstairs gave away the method for free. Every screener is free now. Every filing is searchable. The constraint was never information. It was knowing which information to ignore. Filmed from the back row, audio uneven, students blocking the frame. He gave away 50% a year to a room of 30 people. Almost nobody traded on it. One classroom. One camera. The full lecture is free. It is in the video.
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Booking Tony Robbins today costs $1 million for a single day. This is a rare, 25 years old tape where he lays out the exact reason most people's financial plans fail before they even start, same $1 million material, completely free. He calls it the ultimate success formula. Your brain works like a guidance system. Define the target and it filters for everything related to it. Skip that step and it filters out the information that would save you. Most people have never calculated their savings rate. The one number that tells you when you stop working. Your brain cannot hunt for what it was never told to find. Stallone was so broke he sold his dog for $25. Wrote Rocky in 20 hours. Got offered $360,000 for the script and turned it down because they would not let him star. Took $35,000 instead. The movie grossed $225 million. First thing he did with the check: went back to the liquor store three days straight until he found the guy. Bought the dog back for $15,000 and a part in the film. He had one clear outcome. Not a wish. A target his brain locked onto. Someone earning $60,000 saving 25% retires decades before someone earning $150,000 saving 5%. But the one earning more never ran the number. Running east looking for a sunset. Edison failed 9,999 times inventing the light bulb. Most people try one budget, it breaks, and they call it everything. Tony charges $1,000,000 per speech to teach this. The lecture is free. Almost nobody watched it. Watch it before it's too late. The answer is in this video.
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A young Chicago trader swore he'd quit the day he made $100,000. He hit it before lunch, then walked back into the pit at dawn. He never left. He wasn't unusual. In the late 1980s a seat on the Chicago exchange cost more than $300,000, and the floor was said to hold more millionaires per square inch than anywhere on earth. The men on it had already won. They kept standing there anyway. A rare tape caught why. Traders carried live quote machines on dates. They practiced screaming so they could be heard over the crowd. They wore the same clothes after a winning day and came back the next morning long after they'd made enough to leave for good. One of them said it plainly: after a while, the money is just a way of keeping score. The technology in the footage looks ancient. The phones, the paper, the shouting. The psychology does not. It's the exact moment trading stops being about money and turns into identity, competition, and the pull of the game. Watch this lost tape before it disappears again. The answer is in this video.
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Berkshire cost $3,900 a share the week this was filmed. It closed at $759,410 on Friday. The interviewer is George Goodman, who wrote under the pen name Adam Smith. He gets Buffett at 57, worth $2.1 billion, 8 months after the crash of October 19. Buffett explains valuation in 2 sentences. A bond prints the coupon on the paper. A business doesn't, so you print the number yourself. Then the receipts. The entire Washington Post Company on sale for $80 million while its properties were worth $400 million. He put in $9.7 million in 1973. By 1988 it was $370 million. GEICO: 42% of the company for $46 million, later worth $849 million. See's Candies cost $25 million and earned $30 million before tax in a single year. The part nobody quotes: in 1982 he wrote to Congressman John Dingell that stock index futures would be "overwhelmingly detrimental to our capital markets." Asked what a small investor should do about them, he says hope they make other people behave very silly, then step in occasionally. That was 44 years ago. Before 0DTE options, perps and prediction markets. He also refuses to leave his children money. An inherited fortune, he says, is a lifetime supply of food stamps with a trust officer for a caseworker. 99% goes back to society. He bought Nebraska Furniture Mart from a 94-year-old woman on a handshake. No audit. The tape sat lost for 35 years. Nothing in it needed updating. Watch it before its too late
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This is insane. i genuinely don't understand why ambitious people aren't shown this lecture before their careers start consuming their entire lives. Clayton Christensen spent his career studying why successful companies collapse. in his final class, he asked students to apply the theory to themselves: if you keep allocating your time the same way, what life are you actually building? He had already seen the answer in his own harvard mba class. everyone looked successful at the fifth reunion; by the 10th, 15th, 20th, and 25th, many were unhappy, divorced, and living far from their children. Work shows you the score immediately. close a sale, ship a product, finish a presentation, earn a promotion, get paid. An hour with your child may produce nothing you can measure today; it may take 20 years to understand what that hour built. so the next free hour goes back to work, one rational decision at a time. This is how people build lives they never planned: through hundreds of right decisions that lead in the wrong direction, day after day. Money, titles, and headcount are easy to count. christensen believed a life should be measured by the people who became better because you were there. He died in 2020. One question remains: if someone saw only where your time, energy, and attention went this year, what would they think actually mattered to you? The full 19-minute lecture is in the video below. Watch it before it's too late.
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The most influential mathematician of his generation stands in a German lecture hall and explains a foundation he is rebuilding from scratch. Almost nobody watches it. This is Peter Scholze at Bielefeld University, November 2025, opening lecture of a new public series called Ars Mathematica. Scholze became a full professor at 24 and won the Fields Medal at 30. His work on perfectoid spaces reorganized entire areas of arithmetic geometry inside a decade. Condensed mathematics is his attempt to fix something deeper: the way analysis and algebra refuse to sit together properly. He is proposing new foundations for how mathematical objects carry topology. Watch how he pitches it to a general audience. No prerequisites assumed, no dilution, a working mathematician showing why abstraction opens rooms you could not otherwise enter. A researcher I know rewatched the middle section twice and said it was the first time condensed mathematics felt like an idea rather than a rumour. Some people prove theorems. He is replacing the floor. The answer is in this 50-min video. Watch this alpha, don't miss it.
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A dead MIT professor accidentally destroyed the $25 billion executive coaching industry with one hour of lecture, and ten million people have already watched him do it. He filmed it once in January 2018 and died eighteen months later. Executive coaches charge sixteen thousand dollars a session to teach a third of what he covered in that one hour for free. His name was Patrick Winston. He ran the MIT Artificial Intelligence Laboratory from 1972 to 1997 and wrote the AI textbook every computer science major in the world read for thirty years. Every January for four decades, he gave a lecture called "How to Speak." His entire framework fits on a napkin. Do not read. Be in the image. Keep images simple. Eliminate clutter. Start with an empathetic connection. End with a punch line the audience can repeat over dinner. Never open with a joke. Never end with "thank you." That last rule alone has probably cost the executive coaching industry a hundred million dollars. "Your success in life will be determined largely by your ability to speak, your ability to write, and the quality of your ideas. In that order." That is the actual opening line of the lecture. Winston believed it strongly enough to spend fifty years teaching computer scientists how to talk. Founders spend $80,000 on an MBA and then hire a communications coach to teach them the same material Winston filmed once for free. Engineers write brilliant code and lose promotions to teammates who watched this lecture on the train. The lecture is free on MIT OpenCourseWare. The textbook is free on his page. Winston died in 2019. Almost none of the ten million viewers have actually implemented the four rules on the napkin. The napkin is free. The willingness to actually use it in your next meeting is the entire edge. The answer is in this video. Don't miss this gem.
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A person earning $200,000 a year saves less money than someone making $50,000. The first keeps 5% and banks $10,000. The second keeps 50% and banks $25,000. Four times the salary. Half the wealth built. A psychology professor explains why with a freshman who worked 30 hours a week at a part-time job trying to save money and still ended up broke. GPA aside, her bank account showed $0.00. She sat there six hours a shift. Her actual productive output shut off after thirty minutes. Everything after that was a body on the clock pretending to earn. A University of Michigan study measured it. Twenty-five to thirty minutes. That is how long the average student actually absorbs material before efficiency hits zero. The rest is wasted time wearing the costume of effort. The fix took one sentence. Study thirty minutes. Break five minutes. Repeat. Students who did this scored one full grade point higher the next term. Same hours. Same material. Different structure. Your paycheck works the same way. At a 5% savings rate you need 66 years to stop working. At 50% you need 17. Salary does not appear in the table. The hours at the desk were never the variable. The conversion rate was. The freshman sat there six hours and converted thirty minutes. Most people earn for forty years and convert nothing. Same mistake. Same ratio. Same result. The lecture is free. The formula is free. The 49 years between 5% and 50% are the part that costs something.
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Booking Tony Robbins today costs $1 million for a single day. this is a 21-minute tape from inside his own house, filmed over 30 years ago, where he breaks down exactly how to get anyone to say yes. same $1 million material. completely free. this is a rare, unfiltered tape from decades before this man started charging billionaires just to be in the room with him. people give you two excuses when they say no, he says. not enough time. not enough money. neither is true. the real reason is they don't believe it's worth it yet, and that's not a money problem, that's a state problem. so he teaches something he calls attack and confess. instead of arguing with the objection, you confess your own. "I had a chance to go to this thing six months ago and I didn't go until two months ago," he tells the room. "I can't even imagine the time I lost." the room goes quiet. nobody argues back. he calls it getting someone on the yes train. every small yes you get compounds into the next one, until saying no to the final ask feels harder than saying yes. by the time he asks someone to sign, he says, they've already agreed to it five times over without realizing it. 21 minutes. that's all it takes to walk away knowing the exact two moves people pay $1 million a day to learn: how to read anyone's state, and how to move it. most people spend years in sales guessing at this. he wrote it down on a flip chart in his living room in under half an hour. a seat in that room cost $125 back then. today it's a $1 million-a-day to sit in front of him. The tape is free right now, and the answer is in this video.
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Warren Buffett paid more than $55 million for control of a furniture company without an audit. The contract was one page. Six years later, its 95-year-old founder walked out and opened a rival business across the street. Her name was Rose Blumkin. She arrived in America from Russia with no formal education and learned English from her daughter. In 1937, she used $500 to open Nebraska Furniture Mart. Her rule was simple. Sell cheap and tell the truth. When suppliers tried to cut her off for underpricing established retailers, she found new sources elsewhere. By 1983, one Omaha location was generating more than $100 million in annual sales, exceeding the combined volume of its local competitors. Buffett had watched that record for years. On August 30 of that year, his 53rd birthday, he made the cash offer. Mrs. B was 89. Berkshire did not count the inventory, verify the receivables, or check the property titles. Mrs. Blumkin gave Buffett her word. He wrote the check. The 13-minute footage attached to this post captures the acquisition as it happened. Buffett says buying a company without an audit was almost unheard of. Mrs. B remained chairman. Her son Louie and grandsons Ron and Irv continued managing Nebraska Furniture Mart with her. In May 1989, at 95, a management dispute with her relatives led her to leave. Three months later, she opened Mrs. B's Warehouse directly opposite Nebraska Furniture Mart. At the end of 1992, now 99, Mrs. B rejoined Nebraska Furniture Mart. This time, she signed a non-compete agreement. Buffett later called his failure to obtain that protection a mistake. Mrs. B had not broken her word. No agreement prevented her from leaving or competing. Trust closed the first deal. The missing clause brought Buffett back nine years later. Watch this 13-min rare video. It's the only handshake deal Berkshire ever made at that size.
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