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Close to $11 billion a year in gold revenue is stuck in Canada's permitting queue. Fifteen projects, all with published reserves. They hold 36.6 million ounces and would add around 2.5 million ounces a year, a 35% to 40% increase on Canada's current output. On S&P Global's sample, Canada is among the slowest countries in the world for mine development, at 27 years from discovery to production. In five cases the only thing between the owner and a construction decision is one government signature. Two of the fifteen are on a fast track.
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China is buying at least twice as much gold as it reports, according to Scottsdale Mint CEO Josh Phair, who cites a recent Goldman Sachs report. Much of it is bought over the counter. China has reported purchases for 22 straight months, and Phair says it bought heavily as gold fell more than 20% from its January record. He says central banks with little or no gold are targeting 1% to 3% of reserves, those already at 1% to 3% are moving to 5% to 7%, and Poland is aiming for the upper 30s by year-end.
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Russia's Finance Ministry has proposed a windfall tax on commodity producers, at 20% on revenue from gold and 30% for some base metals and fertilizer producers. The measures are aimed at narrowing a budget deficit widened by military spending and weaker oil revenue. The deficit ran at about 2.5% of GDP from January to August, against the 1.2% the government projected for 2026 last year. USGS puts Russian gold output at 310 tonnes last year, second only to China. Source: Bloomberg, USGS
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Scottsdale Mint CEO Josh Phair says gold would need to reach $35,000 an ounce to balance US foreign debt against US gold reserves. At current prices, US gold covers about 12% of the Treasuries held abroad. Phair expects gold to reach $35,000 this decade.
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MINING.COM retweeted
Close to $11 billion a year in gold revenue is stuck in Canada's permitting queue. Fifteen projects, all with published reserves. They hold 36.6 million ounces and would add around 2.5 million ounces a year, a 35% to 40% increase on Canada's current output. On S&P Global's sample, Canada is among the slowest countries in the world for mine development, at 27 years from discovery to production. In five cases the only thing between the owner and a construction decision is one government signature. Two of the fifteen are on a fast track.
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The World Gold Council says the AI boom has yet to lift gold demand. Technology use fell slightly last year, to 323 tonnes, even as AI chip demand exploded. Total technology demand remains well below its 2007 peak. Manufacturers have been reducing or eliminating gold from some components as prices rise, offsetting growth in AI applications. The WGC calls it a tug-of-war in which the two sides appear evenly matched. The council sees longer-term potential in co-packaged optics, which uses gold in lasers and high-frequency electrodes, and which Nvidia is investing in heavily. Source: World Gold Council
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UBS expects the copper market deficit to widen from 219,000 tonnes this year to 379,000 tonnes in 2027, and sees prices reaching $15,500 a tonne next year. Copper treatment charges fell to a record low below minus $200 a tonne in September, from around minus $45 at the start of the year, which UBS says reflects insufficient mine output to meet smelter demand. Chilean production fell 10% month on month in July amid weather-related disruptions, with Escondida and Codelco accounting for most of the decline. Since early July, LME inventories have fallen by 69,750 tonnes and Shanghai by 79,650 tonnes, while COMEX stocks rose by more than 91,200 tonnes. Source: UBS
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