Moonwave
@moonwavepro

Physics/macro-based market forecasts for BTC & risk assets • Transparency archive + JSON in pinned post • moonwave.pro • Not financial advice

 Earth
moonwave.pro
Joined October 2025
259 Photos and videos
The Moonwave Forecast Archive: Every 4-week forecast, timestamped. Every Grok evaluation, timestamped. Every hit and miss included, plus raw JSON if you want to check for yourself. moonwave.pro/transparency

MOONWAVE Forecast Archive

Every 4-week forecast, timestamped. Every Grok evaluation, timestamped. Hits and misses included, plus raw JSON.

moonwave.pro
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Monthly Moonwave – September–October 2026 Solid month, not a perfect one. BOJ–Fed yen support kept distorting the FX component of the model. Through early September the demo was consistently about three days early on buys and three days late on shorts - all hybrid FX-physics points, all underperformed the pure-physics dates. Still profitable on the month, especially the mid-September long, even if the entry was early. As of writing the strategy is short again on (again) a hybrid-FX signal, but looks likely to confirm the Sep 21 buy and flip back long. More buy windows follow on Sep 25-26, then Volatility on Sep 27 into a final buy on Sep 28. Momentum is really strong, though, so this looks more like a last-chance entry than a local bottom. First area of concern after that is the Oct 2 sell, which lands on the jobs print. A hot number that lifts hike odds could bring the weakness in early, ahead of the stronger Oct 4 sell. (1/2)
Moonwave 8-week Predicted Market Sentiment chart for Sep 20, 2026. The chart represents physics-predicted periods of bullish/bearish demand and high-probability buy/sell/derisk points. The price of BTC is represented as an orange line.

ALT Moonwave 8-week Predicted Market Sentiment chart for Sep 20, 2026. The chart represents physics-predicted periods of bullish/bearish demand and high-probability buy/sell/derisk points. The price of BTC is represented as an orange line.

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@grok As requested, the latest monthly update! An unusual month in that the combined FX-physics signals, which usually outperform pure physics, were much less accurate.
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(2/2) The next buy window is Oct 9-Oct 10 - the 9th currently looks cleaner. Volatility on Oct 12 is a natural place to reduce size ahead of OPEX on Oct 16, with a sell on Oct 18 closing out the current four-week window. Sunwave: The seasonal-momentum model tagged Sep 17 as the local bottom, which was correct. It now points to mostly positive momentum, accelerating into November. Updates: All development is going into Strategy 2.0, which will probably get a less generic name as it takes on more of the decision stack. It now factors in Moonwave amplitude and existing price momentum. Once the weights settle, the next ticker on the list is NASDAQ.
Sunwave BTC Seasonal Momentum chart for Sep 20, 2026. The chart graphs the predicted price of BTC as a percentage of the 90-day trading range in blue. The daily close price of BTC is displayed in red. The chart is the output of an experimental method to identify seasonal momentum pivots in risk assets.

ALT Sunwave BTC Seasonal Momentum chart for Sep 20, 2026. The chart graphs the predicted price of BTC as a percentage of the 90-day trading range in blue. The daily close price of BTC is displayed in red. The chart is the output of an experimental method to identify seasonal momentum pivots in risk assets.
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FOMC: 25bps hike with another likely by year's end - a credibility move from the Fed in our opinion. It just aligns Fed policy with the reality of bond yields. The important information is the signal that Warsh will not set monetary policy according to Trump tweets.
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Weekly Update - September 13, 2026 (1/2) As of writing, BTC found its local low in the Sep 9-11 window and popped on the 11th after decent CPI and consumer confidence. That momentum was just enough to confirm the FX-delayed Sep 12 Buy. Historically, though, this Buy + Volatility pairing on 11-12 has produced a short-lived bounce, then a resumption of the downtrend, so confidence is low. Let's see. Wednesday is FOMC, with consensus still a 25 bps hike. That sits right in front of the first sell window on Sep 17-19 and Friday’s quadruple-witching OPEX. If Warsh surprises to the bullish side, equities can run and likely push through the Sep 19 physics peak. If not, likely a down week until the Buy Sep 21. Bulls would like to see some positive FX action, especially USDJPY, Monday-Tuesday.
Moonwave Predicted Market Sentiment chart for Sep 13, 2026. The chart graphs physics-predicted bullish/bearish demand segments and high-probability buy/sell/derisk points. The price of BTC is represented as an orange line.

ALT Moonwave Predicted Market Sentiment chart for Sep 13, 2026. The chart graphs physics-predicted bullish/bearish demand segments and high-probability buy/sell/derisk points. The price of BTC is represented as an orange line.

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(2/2) Sunwave: The seasonal-momentum model tracked the recent pop-and-retrace reasonably well. Interestingly, it points to a local bottom around Sep 17, then an autumn rally - which sits against the physics sell window on 17-19. That overlap is the thing to watch. Updates: UX polish this week. The main work is on Strategy: adding historical performance of signal clusters (like last week’s) and price momentum into the decision logic. If you have any questions about the system, drop it in the replies! We respond to every comment.
Sunwave predicted seasonal momentum chart for BTC, Sep 13 2026. The predicted price of BTC as a percentage of its 90-day trading range, indicating likely ranges of bearish/bullish momentum, is shown as a blue line. The actual daily close price is represented as a red line.

ALT Sunwave predicted seasonal momentum chart for BTC, Sep 13 2026. The predicted price of BTC as a percentage of its 90-day trading range, indicating likely ranges of bearish/bullish momentum, is shown as a blue line. The actual daily close price is represented as a red line.
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Weekly Update - Sep 6, 2026 (1/2) Last week’s Sep 1-2 Volatility / Sell window produced the expected dip, then failed as a top after Waller’s remarks Sep 3 slashed the odds of a September FOMC hike. The demo went short on Sep 2, BTC popped to 81.3k as shorts got squeezed post-Waller, and has since settled in the high-79ks. Ahead: A buy window on Sep 9, possibly as early as the 8th if FX is positive. A stronger buy on Sep 11 is immediately followed by Sep 12 Volatility, historically a pattern that has favored derisking rather than chasing the move.
Moonwave 8-week Predicted Market Sentiment chart for Sep 6, 2026. The chart displays physics-predicted bullish/bearish periods and high-probability buy/sell/derisk points, with the price of BTC displayed as an orange line.

ALT Moonwave 8-week Predicted Market Sentiment chart for Sep 6, 2026. The chart displays physics-predicted bullish/bearish periods and high-probability buy/sell/derisk points, with the price of BTC displayed as an orange line.

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(2/2) Sunwave: The experimental seasonal-momentum model points to a local top around here, then a drop before a more sustainable uptrend into year-end. The open question is whether last week’s spike and reversal were noise. This week should help answer that. Updates: Mostly under-the-hood security and performance work, plus tweaks to Strategy so it responds more to high-probability calendar events.
Sunwave Predicted BTC Seasonality chart for Sep 6, 2026. The chart shows the predicted price of BTC as a percentage of the 90-day trading range as a blue line, and the actual daily close of BTC as a red line.

ALT Sunwave Predicted BTC Seasonality chart for Sep 6, 2026. The chart shows the predicted price of BTC as a percentage of the 90-day trading range as a blue line, and the actual daily close of BTC as a red line.
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Waller basically coming out and saying "No hike this month" two weeks in advance is wild, a genuine reversal of the Fed's usual total opacity into FOMC dates. Shorts are getting annihilated and bond yields are dropping on the news, but is it enough to reverse the trend?
FXwave Liquidity Oscillator as of September 3, 2026. Two half-circle needle gauges side by side on a starfield background. Left gauge: FXwave 7-Day Trend at -83%, reading Strongly Negative. Right gauge: FXwave Instant at -7%, reading Negative. The gauges are the output of algorithmic comparison of a basket of currencies, to estimate liquidity momentum for risk assets, on 7-day and intraday timeframes.

ALT FXwave Liquidity Oscillator as of September 3, 2026. Two half-circle needle gauges side by side on a starfield background. Left gauge: FXwave 7-Day Trend at -83%, reading Strongly Negative. Right gauge: FXwave Instant at -7%, reading Negative. The gauges are the output of algorithmic comparison of a basket of currencies, to estimate liquidity momentum for risk assets, on 7-day and intraday timeframes.

*Walter Bloomberg
@DeItaone
Sep 3
📊FED HOLD ODDS JUMP AFTER JOBS DATA AND WALLER COMMENTS Odds of a September Fed hike are falling, with Kalshi now pricing a 56% chance of a hold versus 41% for a 25bp hike. The move follows jobless claims rising to 206,000, slightly above forecasts. Meanwhile, Fed Governor Christopher Waller signaled support for holding rates steady if August inflation confirms further disinflation. A hotter inflation print could still revive expectations for a hike. kalshi.com/markets/kxfeddeci…
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Weekly Update – August 30, 2026 (1/2) Mixed week for the demo strategy. It gave back some of the Aug 12-13 buy profits on a losing Aug 23-27 short, then reentered long on Aug 27. As of writing, markets are spooked by the resumption of fighting in Iran, but we're also at the physics-predicted bottom and the liquidity trend is positive. That combination still favors the bulls unless FX deteriorates. The next window of concern is the Sep 1 Volatility signal - FX will matter there - followed by the first physics Sell on Sep 2 and a stronger one on Sep 5.
Moonwave 8-week Predicted Market Sentiment chart for August 30, 2026. The chart shows physics-predicted bullish/bearish periods, and high-probability buy/sell/derisk points. The daily close price of BTC is represented as an orange line.

ALT Moonwave 8-week Predicted Market Sentiment chart for August 30, 2026. The chart shows physics-predicted bullish/bearish periods, and high-probability buy/sell/derisk points. The daily close price of BTC is represented as an orange line.

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(2/2) Sunwave: The experimental seasonal-momentum model stays constructive through the first week of September, then points to a pullback before we enter a more sustainable uptrend later in the fall. Updates: The Moonwave Forecast Archive is now a self-hosted page on the site! It includes statistics, an equity-curve chart, every public forecast posted here, paired with a Grok evaluation, plus JSON archives of each signal and trade. Moving it off the old X “thread of threads” should make the record easier to use and less algorithmically-costly.
Sunwave Seasonal BTC Momentum chart for August 30, 2026. The chart displays the predicted price (as a percentage of the 90-day trading range) of BTC as a blue line, with the actual daily close price represented as a red line. The experiment attempts to predict seasonal momentum pivots for the year in advance.

ALT Sunwave Seasonal BTC Momentum chart for August 30, 2026. The chart displays the predicted price (as a percentage of the 90-day trading range) of BTC as a blue line, with the actual daily close price represented as a red line. The experiment attempts to predict seasonal momentum pivots for the year in advance.

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Monthly Moonwave - July 26, 2026 (1/2) Key dates ahead: Buy: Jul 29 (strengthens Aug 1) Volatility: Aug 5 Sell: Aug 7 Buy: Aug 11-13 Sell: Aug 20-21 After a tough June, July was a return to form. The Jun 29–Jul 1 Buy was a strong entry, the Jul 6-7 Sell delivered the expected pullback, the Jul 8 Volatility marked an early reversal, price dipped into the Jul 13-15 Buy zone, and the confirmed Sell on Jul 23 closed the move cleanly. Strategy + FXwave as confirmation continues to work very well.
Moonwave 4-week predicted sentiment chart for July 26, 2026. The chart represents predicted bullish/bearish sentiment and high-probability buy/sell/derisk points.

ALT Moonwave 4-week predicted sentiment chart for July 26, 2026. The chart represents predicted bullish/bearish sentiment and high-probability buy/sell/derisk points.

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@grok It's that time again! Let's evaluate the performance of our hypothetical Moonwave BTC trader. They started with $177,704, trading 100% of size on confirmed signals with 5% SL. Short BTC on July 23 Buy Jul 28 Reduce 50% Aug 05 Short Aug 06 Buy Aug 12 Short Aug 23 Buy Aug 27 (open) What's their PNL for the period? Current balance?
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Monthly Moonwave - August-September 2026 (1/2) The model navigated the swings cleanly: short into the end-of-July zone, sold the early-August pullback high, and caught the mid-August buys ahead of the recent advance. The demo strategy entered both buy zones early, missing the exact lows, but the overall sequence tracked well. Monday’s price action should be informative. The demo is currently short, into the Aug 28-30 buy window. Strength on Monday would raise the odds of a pullback this week rather than a deeper move down - let's see. The first clear area of elevated risk is the Sep 1 Volatility followed by the Sep 2 Sell.
Moonwave 4-week predicted market sentiment chart for August 23, 2026. The chart graphs physics-predicted bullish/bearish periods and high-probability buy/sell/derisk points.

ALT Moonwave 4-week predicted market sentiment chart for August 23, 2026. The chart graphs physics-predicted bullish/bearish periods and high-probability buy/sell/derisk points.

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(2/2) Further out, the model shows a high-proability move down into the Sep 11 buy zone (later is better, possibly even the 12th). The Sep 16-17 window coinciding with FOMC carries a risk of a bearish Fed surprise heading into the Sep 18 quadruple witching OPEX. Sunwave: The experimental seasonal-momentum model has tracked reasonably so far, after a very flat summer — price did find a low where expected and is now advancing. It suggests the recent strength may reverse before a more sustained upward phase later in the year. Updates: Some UX polish and bugfixes. The first major Strategy update will go live this week, and Sunwave Suite should follow shortly. Let us know which additional tickers you’d like covered!
Sunwave experimental seasonal momentum chart for August 23, 2026. The chart shows the predicted price of BTC (as a percentage of the 90-day trading range) as a blue line and the actual daily close as a red line.

ALT Sunwave experimental seasonal momentum chart for August 23, 2026. The chart shows the predicted price of BTC (as a percentage of the 90-day trading range) as a blue line and the actual daily close as a red line.

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@grok As requested, this month's update! Scaling to include last week's pump has certainly reduced the visual impact of the previous 4 weeks, but I think the continued alignment of results/predictions is making a strong argument for econophysics as a predictive tool.
Moonwave 8-week predicted market sentiment chart for August 23, 2026. The chart shows physics-predicted bullish/bearish periods and high-probability buy/sell/derisk points, with past signals either confirmed (green checkmark) or invalidated (red X). The daily close price of BTC is represented as an orange line.

ALT Moonwave 8-week predicted market sentiment chart for August 23, 2026. The chart shows physics-predicted bullish/bearish periods and high-probability buy/sell/derisk points, with past signals either confirmed (green checkmark) or invalidated (red X). The daily close price of BTC is represented as an orange line.

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Constantly humbled by the Perfect Indicator. How does he do it?
Prof
@TheProfInvestor
Aug 8
Jim Cramer sold all his Bitcoin. If Bitcoin bottomed This goes as a video of decade
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Moonwave Weekly - August 16-23 BTC has dropped into the recent Buy range and leveled out there. As of writing, liquidity remains positive and the wave is turning higher, yet price is still flat - not what bulls want to see. The Strategy gauge confirmed the Buy on the 12th but has since stayed in "curb your enthusiasm" Hold territory. That reading looks consistent with the current price action. The next window of interest is Friday OPEX overlapping with the physics Sell signals on Aug 20-21. This is a notably strong negative confluence, so absent a huge improvement in FX or a meaningful bullish news event, the setup into that zone is bearish.
Moonwave 8-week predicted market sentiment chart for August 16, 2026. The chart shows physics-predicted bullish/bearish bias zones and high-probability buy/sell/derisk points. The daily close price of BTC is displayed as an orange line.

ALT Moonwave 8-week predicted market sentiment chart for August 16, 2026. The chart shows physics-predicted bullish/bearish bias zones and high-probability buy/sell/derisk points. The daily close price of BTC is displayed as an orange line.

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(2/2) Sunwave: The experimental seasonal momentum model points to a local bottom somewhere nearby, followed by a moderate recovery that could develop into a stronger autumn move. It is very much not financial advice, and we’ll see how it unfolds. Site updates: The last update pushed should bring a noticeable speed improvement for mobile users. We’re also moving the transparency archive onto its own page on the site this week, since our current "thread of threads" setup angers the X algorithm.
Sunwave 2026 seasonal momentum prediction chart for BTC. The chart displays the predicted price of BTC, as a percentage of the 90-day trading range, as a blue line. The actual daily close price of BTC is displayed as a red line.

ALT Sunwave 2026 seasonal momentum prediction chart for BTC. The chart displays the predicted price of BTC, as a percentage of the 90-day trading range, as a blue line. The actual daily close price of BTC is displayed as a red line.
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Good PPI news today, and FXwave solidly green right at the predicted sentiment bottom - pretty much exactly what bulls are hoping for, and indices have turned up. Now we see if crypto follows.
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