I reviewed my own activity in the markets for the last 2 years and realized wtf I'm doing
The most interesting is while I was running all the smart-money wallets we have from X through the monolit mcp, I was surprised to find that even they make this same mistake
Sometimes you look at a wallet and see how profitably it flips shitcoins/NFTs or trades on Hyperliquid
Then you pull up its profile on Polymarket and you're just stunned by how deep the guy's loss is there
And everyone falls into the exact same trap:
Because of a lack of competence in some area, you:
1) see a big profit in front of you and convince yourself it's a smart trade
2) don't see the potential risks that you can't even see in theory, because you lack the experience
I've been trading on futures for several years, and I know that's my strongest edge
I've already dialed in my trading system, my risk profile, and I've built up real pattern recognition
Instead of taking 80–90% of my trading capital to the cex and just keep printing steadily there, I go hunting for trades on PM
Even though I:
> backtest everything
> find insiders
> cross-check every risk
> never go all-in
> and I'm even in profit all-time
But instead of only stepping in on the high-conviction trades once every few months and pulling a solid bank out of them, like it was on the
$MEGA market
x.com/karter_web3/status/204…
I try to trade something far less certain, like the recent ChatGPT market, where I laid out every possible thesis, brought the stats, and bet as +EV as I possibly could
>
t.me/karter_hub/794
>
t.me/karter_hub/795
And in the end I locked in a loss
Even though I could have just added size on the tokens from my list that hadn't rug yet
And from this there's only one conclusion
"DOUBLE DOWN ON YOUR STRENGTHS"
Everyone knows this rule, but only today did I manage to truly feel it and fully get it
Thank god I paid such a small price for it
Free money on
$MEGA?
I believe
@megaeth is overrated in this market
Called this earlier in tg:
- pre-market short since June (still holding)
- bet on "NO" > $2B FDV on
@Polymarket at $0.70
Even now, it's not too late to enter any of these plays